Editor’s note: This article is part of our Countdown to Kickoff series, in which we highlight the NFL’s top teams, players, predictions and storylines to watch as the 2025 season begins.
The 2025 NFL season finally kicks off Thursday night with a matchup between the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles and their NFC East rival Dallas Cowboys, whose contract dispute with star pass rusher Micah Parsons was one of the biggest stories of the summer. Friday night, the NFL returns to Brazil with a meeting between the reigning AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Chargers.
Do The Athletic’s NFL writers and editors see the Eagles and Chiefs winning their conferences again? Or the Cowboys defying the skeptics to exceed expectations? Will Saquon Barkley and Patrick Mahomes contend for league-wide honors after their Super Bowl meeting? Which rookies will excel, and which coaches have the hottest seats? Here are our consensus picks for MVP, Super Bowl champion, Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year and more.
Forty-seven staff members responded (with some opting not to answer everything, so some questions don’t have 47 responses). And to the staff member who picked “Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift” to win the Super Bowl: We see you. We just aren’t counting your vote. Here are The Athletic’s staff picks.
The AFC’s three leading men — Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen — have combined to win five of the last seven MVP awards, although only Mahomes has appeared in a Super Bowl. The only active AFC quarterback to beat Mahomes in the playoffs? That would be Joe Burrow, who narrowly won this category, finishing just ahead of Jackson, a two-time MVP and the 2024 runner-up. Second-year Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels was the only player outside the AFC’s leading QB quartet to finish with multiple votes.
If Burrow is the MVP, it stands to reason his top receiver could contend for Offensive Player of the Year, which often goes to the best non-quarterback. Chase led the NFL in receiving yards, catches and touchdowns last season, recording a rare triple crown even as the Bengals missed the playoffs. He finished third in OPOY voting. Barkley (who won last year), Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson — the top three rushers in the NFC last season — all received plenty of support. Derrick Henry, who nearly became the first man to rush for 2,000 yards in multiple seasons, received just a single vote.
New Green Bay Packers pass rusher Micah Parsons dominated the offseason headlines and is the betting favorite for this award, but our staffers favored Detroit’s Aidan Hutchinson, whose broken leg in Week 6 ended a 2024 season that might have won the third-year star some individual hardware. Parsons finished second, while Denver’s Pat Surtain II was the only defensive back to receive multiple votes. Last year, Surtain became the first DB to win the award since 2019.
Among the most popular picks in any category was Las Vegas Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty, the No. 6 pick in April’s draft. He finished well ahead of the draft’s top two picks, Tennessee Titans quarterback Cam Ward and the Jacksonville Jaguars’ Travis Hunter, who is expected to play both ways (and, in fact, who also received votes for Defensive Rookie of the Year). The last running back to receive Offensive Rookie of the Year? Barkley, in 2018.
If voters liked Jeanty’s chances, they simply loved New York Giants’ pass rusher Abdul Carter, the No. 3 pick in the draft, who has looked every bit a future star this summer. A trio of second-round picks also got some attention here, from Baltimore Ravens pass rusher Mike Green (the 59th pick) to Cleveland Browns linebacker Carson Schwesinger (33rd) and Washington Commanders cornerback Trey Amos (61st).
Although it was Buffalo Bills tackle Dion Dawkins’ lobbying that made this honor a reality, the man protecting the reigning MVP got just one vote for this first-time award. Instead, three-time Pro Bowl selection and two-time All-Pro Penei Sewell was the leading choice. The Detroit Lions tackle edged out Lane Johnson of the Philadelphia Eagles.
The leading vote-getters all generated similar concerns from voters: too many disappointing results, and too little certainty at quarterback.
What they said
“Shane Steichen. There is plenty of talent on the Indianapolis roster, but if the Colts don’t get consistency from the quarterback position, the losses could pile up and force a move.” — Dane Brugler, NFL Draft analyst
“Mike McDaniel. With a tough schedule in their first 11 games before their bye, a quarterback who has availability concerns, a below-average offensive line that lost its best player in the offseason and a questionable defense to boot, this could be a recipe for a firing in their bye week.” — Joe Buscaglia, Bills beat writer
“Brian Daboll. Other than perhaps Mike McDaniel, no coach enters with a hotter seat than Daboll, who received a stay of execution midway through a 3-14 finish in 2024. The Giants have a tough early-season schedule, including a matchup with the Chiefs and two with the Eagles in the first eight games. Something tells me Daboll will wait too long before benching Russell Wilson and going with rookie Jaxson Dart.” — Joe Person, Panthers beat writer
“Kevin Stefanski. Nothing this offseason has screamed, ‘Cleveland’s going to be better.’ Joe Flacco is not the answer, and Jimmy Haslam may soon decide Stefanski isn’t either.” — Josh Kendall, Falcons beat writer
“Shane Steichen and Kevin Stefanski. Both for the same reason: Their teams will be unable to weather the storm that comes with their shaky quarterback situations.” — Michael-Shawn Dugar, Seahawks beat writer
The New England Patriots had a busy offseason, and voters like the direction of this team under new coach and familiar face Mike Vrabel. The aforementioned uncertainty in Indianapolis and the boost from Hunter’s arrival in Jacksonville gave the Jaguars support among voters as well.
What they said
“New England Patriots. Huge upgrade with Mike Vrabel, the best coach available in the last hiring cycle. Drake Maye will take a big leap forward.” — Ian O’Connor, columnist
“The Patriots will double their win total from last season under Mike Vrabel.” — Zak Keefer, senior writer
“Jacksonville Jaguars. The AFC South just always feels like a wide-open division, even though the Houston Texans have been solid for a while and I like C.J. Stroud. But if Liam Coen can work even a little bit of magic with the continually underperforming Trevor Lawrence and two-way star Travis Hunter offers a bit of a jolt, why can’t the Jags sneak up and contend for a division title?” — Jimmy Durkin, NFL managing editor
“Jaguars. With the Colts quarterback concerns and the Titans starting a rookie, the AFC South seems ripe for a legitimate challenger to the Texans this year. New head coach Liam Coen has the coaching pedigree and the high-end talent on offense to spark the Jaguars to push for either a wild-card spot or the division. Five of their last six games are against the Titans, Colts and Jets, so they could go on a pretty serious late run.” — Buscaglia
“Carolina Panthers. They’ve strengthened both lines over the past two offseasons. If Bryce Young continues improving the way he did at the end of last season, they can compete in an NFC South that lacks a dominant team. Will Carolina make the playoffs? I’m not going that far, but if the Panthers can get out of the gate quickly — their first seven games are against teams with losing records in 2024 — it could make the second half of the season interesting in Charlotte for the first time in years.” — Ken Bradley, NFL senior editor
“Chicago Bears. Caleb Williams’ stock is on the low end after a bumpy rookie season, but I think he makes a Year 2 leap with Ben Johnson calling plays, an improved collection of offensive weapons and a beefed-up offensive line. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see them make the postseason.” — Tashan Reed, Raiders beat writer
And now for the mess. Our voters see rocky times ahead for Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Things aren’t looking great for the Cowboys, either. (And voting opened before Parsons was traded.) Voters are also seeing a down year for the Vikings, who went 14-3 last season but are now turning their offense over to untested second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy.
What they said
“Aaron Rodgers inked a one-year deal to join Pittsburgh for what could be his final season. The expectation, of course, is for the Steelers to make the playoffs for a third straight year and, more importantly, win their first playoff game since 2016. But that won’t happen with a 41-year-old Rodgers, who looked like a shell of himself, at least from a mobility standpoint, in 2024. In Rodgers’ first season since tearing his Achilles in 2023, he wasn’t able to extend plays as he had done earlier in his career. Without that improvisation, which made Rodgers so special over the years, Pittsburgh won’t be doing anything worthwhile.” — James Boyd, Colts beat writer
“I’m very worried about the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Aaron Rodgers move could work, sure, but I think this team has been kicking the can down the road too long at QB and despite the defense, this could be the year they finish below .500. (I’m also a Steelers fan, so this is my reverse jinx.)” — Jon Greenberg, columnist
“Coach Mike Tomlin seems to pull off a magic act every year to make his team a couple wins better than projected, but this feels like the first time he’ll go below eight wins in his 19 seasons.” — Jesse Newell, Chiefs beat writer
“Dallas Cowboys. The way the Micah Parsons saga played out could take a lasting emotional toll on the team. With a combustible receiver like George Pickens in the fold, this season could go south in a hurry.” — Mike DeFabo, Steelers beat writer
“Minnesota Vikings. Last year’s 14-3 campaign was already going to be hard — if not impossible — to replicate. After the Micah Parsons trade (and probably even before it) they are pretty clearly the No. 3 team in this division. Maybe even No. 4 if Ben Johnson quickly works his magic in Chicago — though I don’t expect that. But I could definitely see the Vikings stepping back to an 8-9/9-8 type season in J.J. McCarthy’s first real NFL experience.” — Durkin
“Cincinnati Bengals. There have just been too many bad vibes associated with their offseason and they didn’t do enough to improve a defense that ultimately kept them out of the playoffs last season.” — Nick Kosmider, Broncos beat writer
“Washington Commanders. A lot of things went right for this team last season, and they face a very difficult schedule this time around. They could be in for a dip similar to what C.J. Stroud and the Texans experienced last season.” — Mike Sansone, NFL senior editor
Remember those four leading AFC quarterbacks? Their teams have monopolized the AFC Championship Game appearances over the last five seasons, and they were the only teams to get any support in this category. Lamar Jackson is famously just 3-5 in the postseason, but that didn’t stop our voters from favoring Baltimore to advance to its first Super Bowl since the 2012 season. The Bills also finished ahead of the Chiefs, despite their three straight Super Bowl appearances.
This was a three-team race between last year’s Super Bowl winner (the Eagles), last year’s No. 1 seed in the NFC (the Lions), and this preseason’s buzziest team (the Packers, thanks to the Parsons acquisition.) The Lions, of course, have never appeared in a Super Bowl, while the Packers haven’t been to that stage since winning their last championship in the 2010 season.
We’ll end where we started, with the last three MVP winners, whose teams dominated this category. Can Jackson’s Ravens finally get past the Bills and Chiefs and get over the hump? Can the Bills somehow clear the Kansas City hurdle? Or will the Chiefs make it three titles in four years? It’s finally time to start finding out.
Countdown to Kickoff is part of a partnership with NFL Sunday Ticket from YouTube TV.
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(Illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; Top photos: Ron Jenkins/Getty Images, Mitchell Leff/Getty Images, Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Image)
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