College football is often at its most fun when we’re wrong.
Through preseason polls, tape, rumors, analytics and more, we all try to find every bit of information, but it’s ultimately impossible. This is a volatile sport played by young people with a universe of distractions. In this new era where the top competitive tiers of the sport have been flattened by player movement, we’ll be more wrong in the future.
A week ago, I said Miami, Ohio State and Oregon looked like the clear best teams in the country. Then Indiana, more than a touchdown underdog at Oregon, went to Autzen Stadium and won by 10 points.
As a result, Indiana is No. 1 in The Athletic 136 this week. The Hoosiers are undefeated with the best or second-best win of anyone in the country, and they beat Illinois by 53 points, a better performance than Ohio State had against the Illini. In addition, Miami’s win against Florida State has lost luster after the Seminoles’ latest loss.
Some angry Ohio State fans will now head to the comments section. Miami fans will, too. They’ll say if the teams matched up, Ohio State and Miami would blow Indiana off the field like Ohio State and Notre Dame did a year ago.
Maybe. But let me ask you this: Three days ago, if Ohio State or Miami were going to play at Oregon, how confident would you have been? Would you have felt victory was guaranteed? Or would you have believed the Ducks had a real shot at beating the Buckeyes just like they did a year ago?
A lot of you are probably in that latter camp. So now that Indiana has gone and outplayed Oregon at its place, should you not feel similarly about the Hoosiers? Why does that win have to say more about Oregon than Indiana, other than the fact that it’s Indiana?
Maybe the Hoosiers would lose against the Buckeyes or Hurricanes. They’d surely be a betting underdog. But these rankings aren’t about projection. They’re about what a team has done, and Indiana has done a lot.
People need to get last year’s Indiana out of their heads. This Hoosiers team already has two wins that are far better than any last year’s team had. ESPN’s metrics give Indiana a slightly better strength of schedule (17) than Ohio State (20) and slightly behind Miami (14). The Hoosiers are No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record measure; the CFP committee will incorporate a similar metric this year, though we’re not sure exactly what their version will look like.
Things can change. Oregon hasn’t actually beaten anyone of note now, thanks to Penn State’s collapse. I still think Oregon is a good team. But if we’re also wrong about that and the Ducks start to falter, it will impact Indiana’s ranking, too. And if an undefeated Ohio State and an undefeated Indiana match up in Indianapolis for the Big Ten title this December, boy, will that be a lot of fun. (That game would have much less at stake because the CFP removed the conference champion requirement for first-round byes, but that’s another conversation).
Indiana looks really good, and it has the resume to prove it. Right now, that’s enough for the top spot.
Here is this week’s Athletic 136.
No. 4 Texas A&M and No. 5 Alabama climb after impressive wins — the Tide at Missouri — and Texas Tech is up after blowing out Kansas. While Alabama has the FSU loss, the Tide also have three wins against top-16 teams. Ole Miss drops after barely holding on for a 24-21 win against Washington State, a game which the Cougars led for much of the day. While the Rebels have the win against LSU and a blowout of Tulane, they also have near-misses against Arkansas and Washington State, which drop them.
Oregon drops and LSU rises. Neither have very impressive wins, but we’ve reached the point in the season where someone has to fill out the remaining spots, and there are no other obvious top-10 teams, and I think the Ducks and Tigers are still quite good.
Missouri only falls to No. 12 after a three-point loss to Alabama in which the Tigers had a chance to win or tie at the end. Oklahoma drops after its 23-6 loss to Texas. I didn’t move Georgia Tech higher because the Yellow Jackets lack a notable win. Their best was Wake Forest, which would’ve been a loss if one more offside flag were thrown.
USC jumps way up to No. 15 after pounding Michigan 31-13, while Notre Dame remains at No. 18 after blowing out a sliding NC State. USC gives the Irish maybe their only chance for a good win all season this coming weekend. BYU again escaped a Big 12 opponent, beating Arizona in overtime, but it was enough to get up to No. 19.
Michigan stays in the top 25 because of its previous win against No. 22 Nebraska, and the position of No. 23 Cincinnati similarly comes down to the head-to-head. Memphis and Utah also slide into the top 25.
Texas climbs up after beating Oklahoma, but that’s the Longhorns’ only Power 4 win, and their loss to Florida got worse when the Gators lost again. Pitt jumps up after beating Florida State, one spot behind Louisville because of the head-to-head loss. The Seminoles slide down with a third consecutive loss. Iowa State’s loss to Colorado drops the Cyclones as injuries are starting to pile up.
Auburn falls after the loss to Georgia, but the Tigers remain ahead of Baylor because of their Week 1 win. UNLV somehow keeps pulling out wins, now 6-0 and up to No. 45 after a last-minute win against Air Force.
San Diego State rockets up to No. 51 after blowing out Nevada to get to 5-1. I had kept the Aztecs low because of their blowout loss to Washington State, but their 34-0 win at Cal doesn’t look like an aberration anymore. They’ve moved into the same tier as Cal, which means the head-to-head result puts them ahead.
Wake Forest jumps up after a win at Oregon State. The Demon Deacons have played hard under first-year coach Jake Dickert. Colorado is up to No. 57 after beating Iowa State.
Penn State falls to No. 60, one spot behind Northwestern, after the Wildcats beat the Nittany Lions. Yes, Penn State was my preseason No. 1, but the Nittany Lions likely won’t surpass 2024 Florida State as my biggest miss. Kansas State climbs to No. 64 after beating TCU, and UCLA is up to No. 65 after beating down Michigan State in East Lansing. Fresno State falls to No. 70 after a shocking blowout loss to Colorado State.
Temple stays near the top of this grouping after losing to undefeated Navy on a late two-point conversion. Troy jumps up after beating Texas State in overtime. Wisconsin drops to No. 84, the lowest spot in the Big Ten, after a 37-0 loss at Iowa. The Badgers aren’t even competitive in the Big Ten anymore. At least Purdue has been competitive and led Minnesota in the fourth quarter on Saturday before a late loss.
Kennesaw State climbs after beating Louisiana Tech to move to 4-2, already doubling last year’s win total in head coach Jerry Mack’s first season. Old Dominion, which was getting CFP talk, drops after a shocking blowout loss to Marshall. Bowling Green gets into the top 100 after beating rival Toledo.
Florida Atlantic moves up after consecutive wins against Rice and UAB. Georgia Southern slides to No. 109 after losing to Southern Miss. Wyoming gets up to No. 110 after beating San Jose State. Oklahoma State at No. 114 remains the lowest-ranked Power 4 team, after a 39-17 loss to Houston. Oregon State is down to No. 117 after the Wake Forest loss, falling to 0-7 and firing Trent Bray.
In a huge game for the bottom of these rankings, Kent State destroyed UMass 42-6 for the Golden Flashes’ first Football Bowl Subdivision win since 2022, spanning more than 1,000 days. It may be difficult to dislodge the Minutemen from the bottom spot. Oregon State and Sam Houston are the only other winless teams, and they play each other on Nov. 8.
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