College Football Rankings: Projected Week 11 AP Top 25
The AP Top 25 college football rankings are going to be an absolute calamity after a raucous Week 10. We started the day with the Texas Longhorns lambasting Vanderbilt, but then almost blowing that lead, while the Miami Hurricanes lost. We then finished the night with Georgia Tech taking its first loss of the season, Oklahoma besting Tennessee, and so much more. We then got a statement in the nightcap for ranked matchups with Utah laying a hurting on Cincinnati in Salt Lake City. So how we figure out what the rankings look like is perhaps our toughest test yet.
It is, of course, fitting that we get this type of craziness the Saturday before the release of the first College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday. The AP Top 25 will go a long way in informing that, to be sure, but there will also be some changes. For now, though, all we have is the rankings that we’ve rolled with this season so far, and here’s what they could look like when the new AP poll comes out on Sunday afternoon.
Dropped out of rankings: Houston Cougars (22)
No. 25-21
25. Cincinnati Bearcats
What had been an unexpected dream season for Scott Satterfield and the Bearcats came to a screeching halt inside Rice-Eccles Stadium late on Saturday night. Cincinnati just looked completely outmatched against, perhaps, the best team that they’ve faced this season. That was especially true for Brendan Sorsby, who finished the game just 11-of-33, while the defense had no answer for Devon Dampier or any aspect of the Utes offense. Cincy may drop out, but at 7-2, I think enough voters will give them the benefit of the doubt enough to just cling on to a Top 25 spot.
24. Iowa Hawkeyes
We need to start taking notice of Iowa and, even though the Hawkeyes were off in Week 10, I think some teams dropping out will put this team inside the Top 25. Mark Gronowski has found his footing when it comes to getting this offense rolling, and now Iowa will have a monstrous opportunity next week when they host Oregon in a game that could throw the rankings into further chaos, not to mention the rest of the Big Ten race as well.
23. Memphis Tigers
Memphis was the only Top 25 team in action on Friday night and they more than took care of business against Rice. With Navy also losing on Saturday in a tough one against North Texas, the Tigers are now in a great spot to represent the Group of Five in the College Football Playoff. The job isn’t finished, and teams like San Diego State and even South Florida are still looming large, but Ryan Silverfield’s team is getting it done every week.
22. Tennessee Volunteers
You can go ahead and kiss the College Football Playoff goodbye if you’re Tennessee. With three losses now on the ledger, there’s really not going to be any recovering from this for the Vols. This is still a good team, but we’re seeing the limitations (and issues, particularly with turnovers) with Joey Aguilar too often, while the defense isn’t the elite group of last year. The Vols will still have chances to make some noise, but this team has watched its postseason hopes go up in flames.
21. Miami Hurricanes
What happens when you take a perennial underachiever like Mario Cristobal and give him a quarterback like Carson Beck who has also shrunk on the big stage? Well, it seems you get an overtime loss to SMU to effectively kill your CFB Playoff hopes. The Canes had the world at their fingertips, especially with the ACC looking so middling, and they ultimately just failed to deliver. That’s inexcusable and it’s going to result in another ultra talented Miami team ultimately not achieving anything close to what they should’ve been capable of.
No. 20-16
20. USC Trojans
It wouldn’t be out of bounds to say that USC caught a bit of fortune on the road in Lincoln in Saturday night with Nebraska star quarterback Dylan Raiola forced to leave the game due to an injury. However, the Trojans still deserve credit for hanging on and withstanding punches from the Huskers in this matchup. Now, USC is in an interesting position when it comes to their postseason hopes, with two quality losses and a chance to still do more damage, especially with a matchup against Oregon still looming.
19. Missouri Tigers
Missouri had the week off after taking a tough loss to Vanderbilt last week and, unfortunately, it feels like a pretty sullen state of affairs for the Tigers. With Beau Pribula now out of action, Mizzou is down what was supposed to be its top two quarterbacks going into the year, which makes you wonder just how much they have left in the tank. There are still key games to be played for Eli Drinkwitz’s team, but the job just got that much harder with all that they’ve endured.
18. Utah Utes
It’s going to be an uphill battle for Utah to make it to the Big 12 Championship Game or the College Football Playoff, but man, they showed how dangerous they can be on Saturday night. Devon Dampier returned and the offense completely took off, routing a previously unbeaten-in-conference-play Cincinnati team in a 45-14 drubbing. The Utes are one of the most fun watches in college football when they’re rolling, and especially when the defense is flying around the way it was in this game. Even if the CFP is a bit of a longshot, a 10-2 finish looks very much alive after a performance like that.
17. Michigan Wolverines
We probably need to talk about the fact that we haven’t seen Bryce Underwood play particularly well in a few weeks now, but all anyone in Ann Arbor cares about to this point is the fact that Michigan keeps winning games and still has their heads above water. Jordan Marshall was the star with three scores and 186 rushing yards in a win over Purdue that was much closer than anyone expected it to be, but Michigan still has plenty of kinks to iron out if they want to extend their winning streak against Ohio State.
16. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
It wasn’t like Brent Key’s Yellow Jackets hadn’t been scared by inferior competition before they took on NC State on Saturday evening, but Georgia Tech, for the first time, couldn’t overcome that. Haynes King and the offense don’t deserve much blame, but there’s plenty of deserved finger pointing going the way of the defense that got torched by the Wolfpack. Prior to this loss, Georgia Tech had a real chance at an at-large CFP berth even if they didn’t win the ACC title. Now, the conference championship might be their only path in.
No. 15-11
15. Louisville Cardinals
In a week wherein the ACC took one lump after another, Louisville was able to avoid a hairy early-game situation in Blacksburg and emerge as the winners over Virginia Tech. The Cardinals defense remains an issue that Jeff Brohm may not have an answer for, but the offense can still win in so many ways. At this point, and with the calamity in the conference, the one thing that’s for sure is that we definitely can’t write off the Birds with Teeth just yet.
14. Vanderbilt Commodores
Especially with the comeback falling short, there are going to be people who are saying that Vanderbilt’s season is over. That’s not remotely the case — though the margin for error has now been completely erased. Diego Pavia finally looked like himself again in the second half after roughly six quarters of riding the struggle bus, and this defense can still cause teams fits. But now the season finale against Tennessee in the rivalry matchup has far more postseason implications than at any point in recent memory.
13. Virginia Cavaliers
It might look like a 10-point win for the Cavaliers, but don’t overlook the fact that Virginia needed a pick-six in the final seconds to secure that double-digit victory. UVA continues to play with fire too often for my liking, but they do deserve credit for continuing to find ways to survive in games such as this one. With losses for Georgia Tech and Miami this week too, the Cavs might actually have a cakewalk to Charlotte for the ACC Championship Game.
12. Texas Longhorns
Don’t look now, but maybe someone should’ve put Texas to bed when they had the chance. The Longhorns certainly didn’t make it easy on themselves with Vandy crawling back and making it a game late, but they dominated the Commodores for 45+ minutes on Saturday and ultimately came away with a win over a Top 10 team. Arch Manning is quietly exorcizing his early-season demons and, with matchups against Georgia and Texas A&M still looming large, things could get hectic in a hurry when it comes to the Longhorns.
11. Oklahoma Sooners
Just when everyone was ready to write Oklahoma off, the Sooners proved that we definitely have to take them seriously. John Mateer continues to look less than perfect as his recovery from hand surgery moves forward, but the OU defense is a big, bad monster, which Tennessee found out the hard way. The job is far from finished with a brutal schedule still remaining for the Sooners, but the fact of the matter is they can still make the College Football Playoff at this rate.
No. 10-9
10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
You probably would’ve expected a much better overall performance from Notre Dame as they went on the road to face an absolutely reeling Boston College team, but a win is a win, and the game ultimately wasn’t as close as the final score (25-10) might’ve made it seem. But the Irish got a lot of help on Saturday that makes their CFB Playoff case even realer than anyone might realize at this point.
While the loss to Miami now looks worse, the one-point defeat at the hands of A&M looks that much more impressive. Furthermore, the win over USC continues to look impressive as well, and now the Irish have an incredibly manageable finishing stretch. They face Navy, Pitt, Syracuse and Stanford to finish the year. If they win out and finish 10-2 on the year, they appear to be in perfect position to waltz into the playoff.
9. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Early on in Manhattan, it looked like Texas Tech may very well be looking ahead to their massive showdown with BYU next week with the Big 12 title potentially hanging in the balance. Instead, Behren Morton, who returned from injury in this game, found his footing as the day went along and that allowed the Red Raiders to pull further and further away, notably winning the second half over K-State by a count of 31-13 to secure the 43-20 victory overall.
Texas Tech has all of the talent in the world and is still heavily in the College Football Playoff mix, especially with the Cougars coming to Lubbock next week. At the same time, they’ve played with their food in a few games since dominating Utah, and we need to see the Red Raiders put it all together by next Saturday if we’re going to have Joey McGuire’s team not only make it to Arlington, but be one of the 12 teams in the bracket.
No. 8-7
8. BYU Cougars
There are people who have been looking to discredit BYU at every turn this season, but the Cougars have just kept on rolling. They were another team off in Week 10, but with some chaos ahead of them, they now move further inside the Top 10 without lifting a finger. That’s great, but BYU’s best chance yet to prove themselves will come next week with a matchup that has massive Big 12 and CFB Playoff implications.
The Cougars, of course, are going on the road to Lubbock to face Texas Tech. College GameDay will be in the building and it should be absolutely rocking between the conference’s two biggest favorites. Bear Bachmeier and BYU haven’t been perfect and they might not be the best team in the country, but they find ways to win and are beyond relentless. I already have my order for popcorn ready for Noon ET on Saturday in Week 11 for this showdown.
7. Ole Miss Rebels
We just need to outright accept the fact that Ole Miss is a damn good football team. I’m not going to tell you that South Carolina is any kind of world-beater — I was objectively more wrong on the Gamecocks this season than any other team. At the same time, on the heels of the gritty and hard-fought win over Oklahoma, the Rebels came out and handled their business, even with Trinidad Chambliss not playing at his best in this game.
What stands out with Lane Kiffin’s team and the way they’ve performed, even in the loss to Georgia, is that Ole Miss might have more counter-punches than we’ve seen previous iterations of this program have. Chambliss is the straw that stirs the drink, but Kewan Lacy has emerged as one of the best backs in the country, and the defense has been playing at an extremely high level. With maybe the softest remaining schedule in the SEC, the Rebs are getting close to lock status for the playoff.
No. 6-5
6. Oregon Ducks
The last time we saw Oregon before their Week 10 bye, the Ducks weren’t exactly showering themselves in glory with their win over Wisconsin. Yes, it was rainy and sloppy in Eugene, but the Badgers have been a doormat for just about everyone they’ve faced in the Power Four this season, and Oregon simply couldn’t pull away from them. That’s at least of some concern when the Ducks come out of the bye, to be sure.
Iowa has been lurking as a dark horse in the Big Ten for weeks now, and Dan Lanning will have to take his team to vaunted Kinnick Stadium next week for a massive game. If the Ducks were to play down to their opponent and get clipped in that matchup, though, it would rightly put their College Football Playoff hopes in jeopardy. They’re an uber-talented team, but they need to play like it more consistently.
5. Georgia Bulldogs
It’s rarely been anything resembling pretty for Kirby Smart’s Dawgs this season, and yet Georgia is still humming along with only the loss to Alabama working against them. The Cocktail Party was certainly not a sweatless affair for Bulldogs fans as Florida, especially on defense, gave Gunner Stockton and Company everything they could handle (and not without some questionable officiating as well). But Georgia prevailed, and there is a glass-half-full way to look at that.
Whether you’re talking about the win over Florida, the win over Tennessee, the win over Ole Miss, or whatever else, the Dawgs have proven that they can win in a variety of ways. In no ways do they look like the juggernaut Georgia teams of a few years ago, but that means something, especially in the SEC and then the CFB Playoff. That has to be a feather in this team’s cap as they move forward.
No. 4-3
4. Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama got a well deserved week off on Saturday after a gauntlet in the schedule that no one seemed to talk about. The Crimson Tide went from at Georgia, to hosting Vanderbilt, to at Missouri, to hosting Tennessee, to visiting South Carolina without a bye to break any of that up. That’s absolutely absurd, and Ty Simpson helped lead this team through it all with the season-opening loss to FSU still as the only defeat on the ledger this year.
Coming out of the bye, though, Bama hosts rival LSU in what could be an absolutely fascinating game. The Tigers clearly played below their talent level most of this season, hence why Brian Kelly is no longer employed in Baton Rouge. Could this be a dead-cat bounce situation for LSU, especially in a rivalry matchup? It’s not out of the question, but at the same time, Alabama has simply looked a cut (or maybe two) above the Tigers for most of the season.
3. Texas A&M Aggies
After establishing their hold as a potential College Football Playoff lock, Texas A&M joined Alabama — their likeliest opponent in Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game as of right now — in having Week 10 off. While there wasn’t any chaos around either team to force any movement in the rankings, I’m more interested to see where Mike Elko’s Aggies end up in the first CFP rankings.
With wins over the likes of Notre Dame and LSU on the road, there’s a case to be made that they could end up higher than No. 3. I don’t think that’s the case, but we’ll see. The good news for A&M, though, is that they have plenty more chances to still improve their rankings. They go on the road to Mizzou after the bye and then finish the regular season at Texas before the potential SEC title game.
No. 2-1
2. Indiana Hoosiers
If you needed any more evidence of how damn good Indiana actually is this season, Fernando Mendoza and the Hoosiers offense had one of their worst games of the season against an at-least-decent Maryland side and Curt Cignetti’s team still ended up blowing the Terps out of their shell on Saturday. If I’ve said it before, I’ve said it a dozen times this season: This year’s Indiana is like last year’s group on steroids.
Mendoza is electric, but he’s not alone on this offense with Omar Cooper Jr., Elijah Surratt, Roman Hemby and so on with him. Beyond that, this defense is just nasty. There is a case to be made, especially after watching the likely still-No. 1-ranked team in the country struggle for a half in Week 10, that the Hoosiers might be the best team in the country. At this point, there’s really not much evidence to the contrary, that’s for sure.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
Coming into Saturday, everyone was looking at Ohio State’s matchup with Penn State through the lens of “what could’ve been”. Obviously, that was because of the Nittany Lions side of the equation as the season has gone off the rails in Happy Valley. However, for at least a half, the zombie Nittany Lions were giving the Buckeyes a fight and seemed ready to start another war with their Big Ten rivals, which came as a shock to many fans.
Ohio State ultimately pulled away, particularly with the unreal play of both Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, but also on defense. At the same time, though, one could make the argument that this was the first time we’ve seen Ryan Day’s team look vulnerable since the season opener against Texas. On one hand, that means you have to be encouraged with how the Buckeyes responded. However, the other side of that coin is everyone left wondering what OSU will look like against the likes of Michigan and the College Football Playoff field.
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