Welcome to the first edition of The Athletic’s new Premier League Predictions game.
This is where you (our lovely subscribers) have the opportunity to join a data algorithm, a six-year-old boy, and me in putting our credibility on the line on a weekly basis.
Every week, we will give score predictions for each of the 10 Premier League games, with a correct scoreline gaining three points and a correct result gaining one point. To make things more interesting, there will be a bonus point if a player is the only one to get a scoreline or result correct. You’ll be able to see the standings from next week.
We will have a different subscriber each week, chosen from those who have replied with their interest (see here for how to get involved and for other general information), but I will be a constant throughout the season until May, along with the algorithm and, of course, six-year-old Wilfred.
The more I talk about this, the more convinced I am that The Athletic are setting me up for a fall here, exposing not only my inability to predict the outcome of football matches but, even worse, my blatant bias against your team.
Ah, let’s brush away these pangs of insecurity. Three hundred and eighty Premier League matches lie ahead of us from now to May 24, so let’s get cracking.
For the opening weekend, the subscribers will be represented by Vaageesh, a Manchester United supporter who hails from Chennai, India. Will he tip his beloved team to hit the ground running against Arsenal? Will any of us? This is already causing me more stress than I thought it would…
Our subscriber’s match of the week
Manchester United vs Arsenal, Sunday 4.30pm BST/11.30am ET
Vaageesh says: “I don’t have much time; I’m writing this moments after entrapping my battling optimistic and pessimistic selves in a bunker. Here’s the rationale: Manchester United’s ability in transition will cancel out Arsenal’s confidence when in possession and neither will quite have the fluidity required to pull ahead despite the fact that both teams seem to have improved over the summer.”
Manchester United 1-1 Arsenal
Oli says: I’m old enough to remember Arsenal, as champions, being obliterated on the opening day in 1989-90 by a new-look Manchester United team, for whom it proved a classic false dawn. United’s prospective new owner, Michael Knighton, was on the pitch beforehand, ball-juggling and blowing kisses to the crowd, and Neil Webb smashed one in from 25 yards on his debut — wild stuff, honestly (yeah, get on with it, Grandad).
If I close my eyes, I can imagine a scenario where something similar happens — this new United front line looks perfect for a balmy Sunday afternoon in August — but… no, not quite. This Arsenal team strike me as too serious to be rolled over on day one. I’ll try not to sit on the fence too often, but I’m going to have to go for a very lively draw here.
Manchester United 2-2 Arsenal
Bryan Mbeumo (left), Benjamin Sesko (middle) and Matheus Cunha (Ash Donelon/Manchester United via Getty Images)
Oli’s other predictions
Liverpool vs Bournemouth
Oli says: If I describe this as an awkward start for Liverpool, it’s in part because Bournemouth are unconventional opponents. Nobody seems to have it easy against them. I’ll go for a home win, but not a comfortable one. It might be a tight, nervous one, requiring a lively cameo from Rio Ngumoha and a late winner from Mohamed Salah, that kind of thing.
Liverpool 2-1 Bournemouth
Aston Villa vs Newcastle
Oli says: They have both had challenging summers, but stylistically this is one of my favourite match-ups in the league. The past six meetings have seen four wins for Newcastle (4-0, 5-1, 3-1, 3-0) and two for Villa (3-0 and 4-1), and I could see this one swinging violently one way or the other. Which way? I’ll say Villa this time.
Aston Villa 3-1 Newcastle
Brighton vs Fulham
Oli says: Another nice match-up, another that could certainly go either way. Why am I going with Fulham to hit the ground running against a Brighton team I rate? Not sure, but perhaps because of their quiet summer in the transfer market, rather than despite it.
Brighton 1-2 Fulham
Sunderland vs West Ham
Oli says: I’ve missed having Sunderland in the Premier League — or certainly the notion of what Sunderland should or could be. The place will be rocking on Saturday and even though I like the look of a couple of West Ham’s signings, it’s a winnable opening game for Sunderland.
Sunderland 1-0 West Ham
Tottenham vs Burnley
Oli says: I don’t know what to expect from Tottenham this season, but I will at least predict a winning start. Burnley had an outstanding defensive record last season, but facing Dominic Solanke, Mohammed Kudus, etc, represents a step up in class for Scott Parker’s team.
Tottenham 2-1 Burnley
Wolves vs Man City
Oli says: The Wolves fans I know are all worried after another summer dominated by departures. As opening games go, this looks more likely to intensify the gloom rather than lift it. Manchester City always seem to hit the ground running — Erling Haaland in particular — and I expect that to continue.
Wolves 0-2 Manchester City
Chelsea vs Crystal Palace
Oli says: I don’t know how Chelsea’s Club World Cup exertions will affect them in the long run, but I fancy them to start well. Palace, incidentally, have been slow starters and excellent finishers over the past few seasons. There’s no reason to expect that pattern to continue, but Chelsea away on the opening weekend is tough.
Chelsea 2-1 Crystal Palace
Nottingham Forest vs Brentford
Oli says: Looking at how the fixtures have fallen, Forest are another team I fancy to start well — at least until the European commitments kick in, which will test their squad depth — whereas I’m slightly concerned for Brentford. I’m expecting a home win and a Morgan Gibbs-White goal, followed by a flamboyant kiss of the badge.
Nottingham Forest 2-0 Brentford
Leeds vs Everton
Oli says: For Leeds and their fans, this is the perfect opening game, particularly under the floodlights on a Monday night. They didn’t get to enjoy an occasion like this after promotion during the Covid pandemic in 2020, so I’m predicting an utterly wild atmosphere, an exuberant performance, a refereeing controversy, and, ultimately, a Leeds win to round off a lively opening weekend.
Leeds 2-1 Everton
(Top photo: Catherine Ivill/Getty Images; design: Demetrius Robinson)
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