Predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

The Florida State Seminoles will open their 2025 season by hosting the 8th-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide, and unveiling their updated Doak Campbell Stadium after a two-year renovation that began after the 2023 season. The football program and it’s fans are hoping these opening ceremonies will exorcise the demons from the 2024 football season.

Florida State and Alabama will meet for the only the 6th time, with Bama leading the series 3-1-1. This will be the Tide’s first visit to Tallahassee, with FSU winning their only other game in Florida, a 21-14 victory in the 2007 game played in Jacksonville. In their last meeting in 2017, Alabama beat FSU 24-7 in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game played in Atlanta. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. and will be televised on the ABC network and streamed by ESPN.

Both teams will be starting new QBs for this matchup. FSU’s Tommy Castellanos, who spent his freshman season at UCF under new FSU OC Gus Malzahn, comes to Florida State after accounting for 4,921 yards of total offense in 21 games played during the 2023 and 2024 seasons at Boston College. He is one of only five players in the ACC this century to pass for 2,000 yards and rush for 1,000 yards in a season (2,248 & 1,113 in 2023).

Alabama’s Ty Simpson was named the starting quarterback by 2nd-year head coach Kalen DeBoer to replace two-year starter Jalen Milroe. This will mark Simpson’s first-career start for the Tide. In his limited action over the last 3 years, Simpson has completed 29-of-50 (58.0 percent) passes for 381 yards in 16 career games, while carrying 22 times for 130 yards (5.9 yards per carry) and three touchdowns on the ground.

According to FanDuel, the Seminoles are 13.5-point underdogs against the Tide, with the over/under set at 50.5.

Enjoy the video from Bobby Bowden’s win over Nick Saban, and then there’s Alabama’s 2017 win over the Noles.

Some things are lining up for FSU in this game. It came out of camp fairly healthy while Alabama will be without more starters and key players. Getting to play this game at home in a stadium full of active fans desperate to move past the 2024 debacle with a statement win could be a boost.

FSU absolutely can win this game. But as I’ve said a lot this offseason, they’re going to have to show it to me for me to believe it after last year.

While I do not believe that the result of this game will be an indictment of how Florida State’s season will go, Saturday could not be a worse matchup for FSU.

A veteran, physical team comes to town looking to make a statement after a disappointing season a year ago. Alabama has proven players and an edge over the Seminoles at virtually every position across the board. The rain could make for a sloppy contest, allowing Florida State to keep it close, but I do not know the path for Mike Norvell’s team to victory this weekend.

Florida State is in perhaps the worst possible position to be in as of now. Pundits across the country are rightfully labeling this team as doing nothing this season, and it doesn’t help that Tommy Castellanos has put a gigantic target on this team’s back for the first game. I have more faith in Alabama completely dominating the Seminoles in all three phases of the game rather than Florida State squeaking out a win. I hope I’m wrong.

Finally, FSU will be able to begin taking steps to wash out the filthy taste of last season. I’m hoping that FSU fans show up early and stay into the evening, and that the nation will once again see how formidable Doak can be when the crowd is engaged and rocking.

Alabama has some significant injuries and while I hate that one kid’s misfortune is another kid’s gain, a couple of the matchups have become more even or slanted in FSU’s favor. I am hoping to see a competitive game with numerous positive moments for the Seminoles to build upon, but I think the lack of quality depth in several units will be exposed. FSU puts up a great fight but the Tide pulls away midway through the fourth quarter.

I initially thought Alabama by 20 before the injuries started rolling in for the Tide. The DT injury could really allow the FSU run game to find success, but in the end, I still think it’s too much “new” for FSU to overcome.

If the game was a month ago, my answer would have been something along the lines of “Bama blows open a close-ish game in the third and wins by three touchdowns.” But a string of impactful injuries for the visitors has the Tide looking a bit weaker coming into this one.

Do I think a re-invented FSU roster pulls out a win? No. But I do think the chances of an upset are at least in the 35% range as opposed to mid-teens. Ultimately, I’ll be happy if we just look competent on offense and physical on D.

If FSU can score more often than not, which could happen if the Noles and their new QB can run Gus’s offense the way it’s supposed to be run, against a weakened Tide front and average defense, the Seminoles could keep this game close enough to pull out the win.

On the other side of the ball, to win the game, the defense will have to perform like they haven’t performed since 2023 in order to stop Alabama’s offense, and that will probably be difficult to do for 4 quarters.

However, the home crowd in the refurbished stadium will inspire the players to play harder, give 110% more effort, want it more, and play with more heart than their more talented opponents, keeping the Noles in the game to win by a field goal and putting the nation on notice.

FSU Seminoles 31, Tide 28

I think Bama will try to go heavy personnel and overload FSUs new defensive front and I think they’ll be successful because of the talent difference between the teams.

To win, FSU would have to play its A game, and Castellanos would have to be stellar, and turnover margin would have to be +2 in FSUs favor. Tall ask.

Bama 34, FSU 17, unfortunately.

Florida State is no stranger to major, season-defining matchups to open a season under Mike Norvell — the only time FSU hasn’t had a high-stakes game in the last five seasons was 2022 and that barely counts because I bet you can’t even name the opponent (Duquesne).

The thing is, last year erased any concrete truths I thought I knew about the program under Norvell. The run-up to 2023 was full of moments to point at as progress but now, the difference between signs of strength and red flags are paper thin — something that has only compounded with how little we actually know about this team. On paper, things do look better than last year but man, how could they not?

In a vacuum, if I didn’t pay witness to one of the stunning collapses in sports, I would feel encouraged about an FSU upset. Alabama has been vulnerable for a few years now, with the untouchable aura efficiently shooed away after scares from the likes of USF and a slaying at the hands of Vanderbilt, but uh, it still is absolutely loaded with talent. Even down three starters this weekend, there’s a clear advantage on the depth charts in the Crimson Tide’s favor.

Which, that’s where in the vacuum mentioned above, I’d have faith in the staff scheming things right, winning on the whiteboard to get within reach of winning on the gridiron, but that’s not the reality. The reality is that while I really do have confidence in what the new supporting coaching staff brings to the table and how players have responded, I don’t have enough to think that the Seminoles can pull off a shocker. I’ll admit, I am much closer to thinking of thinking that (if that makes sense), than I was a few months ago but not enough to actually take the leap.

Give me an early two-touchdown Alabama lead before FSU makes it 14-10 and then leads briefly before Alabama takes control late in the third.

Florida State Seminoles vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

Pre-Game Coverage from Tomahawk Nation

Florida State Seminoles vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: How to watch

FSU Broadcast: CH. 161/193/SXM App

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