One thing is certain about Monday night’s T-Mobile Home Run Derby: Someone’s going to win who has never won before. When two-time winner Pete Alonso — who honestly seems made for the Home Run Derby — declined to participate this year despite actually being named to the team, it assured that none of the eight participants this year will be a repeat winner.
So, then: Who is going to add their name to the scrolls this year? Each competitor in Monday’s event at Truist Park has a real chance to win; otherwise, they wouldn’t be here. But because I am a professional prognosticator, or at least someone who types many words very fast about baseball hopefully for your amusement and enlightenment, I must make some predictions. So here are your 2025 Home Run Derby Power Rankings. Any of these guys could win. Here’s a semi-educated guess at who will.
1. James Wood, Nationals
The Nationals haven’t been very good this year — you may have noticed that they just let go of their manager and their general manager — which has meant that not nearly enough people have noticed Wood. The 22-year-old has put up MVP-level numbers, ranking among MLB’s top 10 by WAR and showing prodigious, downright terrifying all-fields power.
How terrifying? Early this year he became the first player to be intentionally walked four times in a game since Barry Bonds. (This also might say something about the Nationals’ lineup as currently constructed.) This is the biggest stage Wood has been on so far in his young career. I can’t wait to see what he does with it.
2. Oneil Cruz, Pirates
Here’s your dark horse pick. Nobody swings the bat harder than Cruz does — we measure this sort of thing at Baseball Savant, you know — and Cruz hit a ball into the Allegheny River earlier this year that was the hardest-hit ball of the Statcast Era. He also leads all of baseball in exit velocity this year. That’s pretty terrifying power.
Now, Cruz also has the sort of looping swing that doesn’t always work in the Home Run Derby (Wood has a similar problem, such as it is), so that could hurt him a little. But a guy this strong almost feels like a ringer. Even if he doesn’t win, he’s a good pick to hit the most impressive home run of the night.
3. Cal Raleigh, Mariners
You know people are going to be cheering for the Big Dumper, even in Olson’s home ballpark. (For what it’s worth, Raleigh grew up in North Carolina, not that far from Atlanta.) Raleigh has slowed down a little bit in the last week or so but was still on pace for 62 homers entering Friday. Even if he doesn’t keep up that pace, as long as he’s healthy, he’s likely to end up with the most single-season home runs by a primary catcher in MLB history.
Raleigh has a couple significant strikes against him in the Derby, though. Not only has no catcher ever won the event … no switch hitter has, either.
4. Matt Olson, Braves
You can understand where the Braves and Ronald Acuña Jr. were coming from with the decision to sit him out of the Home Run Derby. He’s healthy, sure, but you can never be too sure: He’s too valuable, short and long term, to mess around. Olson is a more than reasonable home-team substitute. He has hit more homers in a season (54 in 2023) than Acuña ever has, and he’s a local kid who will be thrilled to hit in front of his home fans. It also might be a good opportunity for Olson to have a high profile moment for the Braves. He is seen by some, fairly or unfairly, as being The Freddie Freeman Replacement, but he has done more than enough to carve out an identity of his own. A breakthrough in the Home Run Derby could further carve his way into the hearts of Braves fans.
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr., Yankees
All right, so maybe he’s not the first Yankee who comes to mind as someone you’d want to see in the Home Run Derby. Giancarlo Stanton won in 2016 (with the Marlins) and Aaron Judge in 2017, but neither has participated — in fact, no Yankee has participated — since Judge’s rookie year. Chisholm is a good guy to break that drought, though.
Chisholm has always felt like a guy who hasn’t quite lived up to the immense hype throughout his career, but he has looked close to his true self in Yankees pinstripes of late. He’s also immensely watchable and is exactly the sort of player who could get the crowd going crazy if he gets on a roll. Is he a little smaller than you’d like your Home Run Derby champs to be? Probably. But he packs a mighty wallop.
6. Junior Caminero, Rays
One thing is clear: If there were a Home Run Trot Derby, there’s no question Caminero would win it. The 22-year-old Caminero — so many fun young players in this year’s Derby, aren’t there? — is a compulsively entertaining player to watch, and he has been in the middle of everything for a surprising Rays team this year.
Like Wood, he’d become the youngest player to win the Derby, but here’s a bet: Caminero, with his classic slugger profile, will be in this Derby many, many times. It might be too early to expect him to win one, though.
7. Brent Rooker, A’s
One of those players you can’t help but root for, Rooker came out of nowhere for the A’s a few years ago to become one of the more reliable right-handed power bats in the Majors. He just hits, consistently, all the time; his contract extension last year assured he’ll be doing it for the A’s for years to come. He’s the first A’s player in the Derby since Matt Olson four years ago. But Rooker, I’ll confess, has big Just Happy To Be Here vibes in this Derby.
8. Byron Buxton, Twins
There may have been no one more thrilled to be named as a Home Run Derby participant than Buxton, who is from Georgia and has overcome all sorts of injury-related issues throughout his career to get here. He then, of course, ran into another one just this week.
But he is officially still on the roster, and it’ll be fun to watch him, particularly if he is, in fact, fully healthy — there aren’t many players more purely enjoyable to watch when he is. Buxton’s appeal, though, has always been in his all-around game rather than just pure power. He’s a longshot … if he even ends up competing.
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