Picks against the spread for every game

NEW YORK is a tough town for coaches. Even the most successful ones get fired.

Often, the ax is expected, such as when the Rangers cut bait with Peter Laviolette after a disastrous season, one year after he led them to the NHL’s best record and within six wins of the Stanley Cup.

Other times, it’s a shock. Just ask Sandy Brondello, who was dumped by the Liberty a year after directing them to their first WNBA title. Or Tom Thibodeau, who was dispatched by the Knicks after taking them to their first Eastern Conference finals berth since 2000.

This brings us to Brian Daboll, who holds a record of 18-35 three games into his fourth season. His résumé includes a playoff road victory at Minnesota in the first year. Since then, his teams have gone 9-28 and have ranked 27th, 31st, and 30th in points scored.

Not only that, the Giants couldn’t figure out how to score or win consistently with Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones, both of whom have gone on to, shall we say, bigger and better things.

It appears there are two main reasons why Daboll will still be standing on the sideline Sunday when the Chargers come to MetLife Stadium. One is that co-owner John Mara was tired of firing coaches after two seasons or less (Joe Judge, Pat Shurmur, Ben McAdoo).

The other is that the Giants drafted Jaxson Dart with the 25th pick this season, and Daboll’s history with quarterbacks, most prominently Josh Allen, was enough to warrant giving this duo a shot. That chance has arrived in Week 4 after Daboll learned firsthand why Pete Carroll, Sean Payton and Mike Tomlin all believed Russell Wilson was washed up.

Most likely, this will be Daboll’s last ace to play. I don’t believe it’ll be enough for the Daboll-Dart tandem to go, let’s say, 4-10 in the next 14 games with an uptick near the end. There will be some hotshot offensive coordinator who will tell Mara and Steve Tisch how he could do better with Dart, and this time the owners probably will bite.

Is this the right time to make the move to Dart? The Chargers are a good team, probably second tier in the NFL, and they have a tough defense. Malik Nabers (shoulder) also is on the injury list. Next week in New Orleans definitely would have been a softer landing spot.

Conversely, it’s smart to feed Dart to the fan base now as the undefeated Great Blue Hope. The feeling here is his teammates will rise to the occasion to support him, and for this week we get the best of whatever the Giants can be.

The pick: Giants +6.5. 

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) over Minnesota Vikings (in Dublin, Ireland)

Aaron Rodgers is 0-2 in his European excursions, losing as a Packer to the Giants in 2022 and as a Jet to these Vikings last season, both in London. Though Carson Wentz was reliable in his first Vikings start, I’m thinking the Rodgers-Steelers offense will get better as the season goes along.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Both teams beat the rap last week, with the Eagles coming back from 26-7 down against the Rams and the Bucs surviving the miracle blocked field goal return by the Jets. The key here is the injury report combined with the 91-degree heat. Figuring the Eagles will wear out the Bucs in the trenches on both sides of the ball.

New Orleans Saints (+15.5) over BUFFALO BILLS

Though the Bills are averaging 34 ppg, they called off the dogs at the Jets and didn’t show much killer instinct vs. the Dolphins. Saints play at a high tempo and still have some weapons (Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave), so the backdoor should be open if the Bills aren’t in kill mode. 

ATLANTA FALCONS (+1) over Washington Commanders

Dan Quinn returns to face a Falcons team he once led to a Super Bowl berth. Marcus Mariota put up 41 points against the Raiders, but now could be without Terry McLaurin. Wondering if Atlanta’s troubling 30-0 loss at Carolina goes beyond the normal NFL “bounce back” expectancy, but here goes …

DETROIT LIONS (-10) over Cleveland Browns

It’s a short week for the Lions after their Monday night rout of the Ravens, the spread has ballooned to double digits, and the Browns come into Motown No. 1 in yards per game allowed by a wide margin. Don’t care about any of that. The Browns aren’t equipped to run this track meet.

HOUSTON TEXANS (-7) over Tennessee Titans

Yes, it’s hard to justify laying a touchdown with a Texans team that’s 0-3 and is scoring 12.6 ppg. Still, the Titans’ defense looks to be a get-right opponent, having allowed more points and lost by an increasing margin each week this season. 

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-5.5) over Carolina Panthers

Inside-the-boxscore stuff here. Carolina beat Atlanta 30-0 despite getting outgained by 112 yards. New England lost 24-17, but it took five turnovers to get to that result, and the Patriots had a huge 166-yard advantage. Drake Maye’s 72.6 completion percentage begins to translate into more points.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Willing to accept a few points with the Jaguars based mainly on the 49ers injury report. Both Brock Purdy and backup Mac Jones are questionable; they could be down two receivers (Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall), and Nick Bosa is out for the season.

LOS ANGELES RAMS (-3.5) over Indianapolis Colts

Two angles on the Rams: 1. They were good enough to take a 26-7 lead over the Eagles in Philly. 2. They will be angry and focused at home after blowing said lead. Looking like wrong place, wrong time for Daniel Jones and the 3-0 Colts.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (+1) over Chicago Bears

The Raiders are 1-2 and averaging just 14.6 ppg, still I think eventually there are going to be some good times for Carroll with Geno Smith, Brock Bowers, and Ashton Jeanty. Bears are allowing 31 ppg, so maybe this is the week for those to begin.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+2.5) over Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore travels to Arrowhead on a short week after a MNF pasting by the Lions and could be without DT Nnamdi Madubuike. Meanwhile, Xavier Worthy is likely to return for the Chiefs after Patrick Mahomes discovered another weapon, Tyquan Thornton, in the win over the Giants.

Green Bay Packers (-7) over DALLAS COWBOYS

This is a prime-time embarrassment spot for Jerry Jones as Micah Parsons takes aim at Dak Prescott, while CeeDee Lamb sits out. It doesn’t hurt that the Packers are coming off a loss in Cleveland in which they blew a 10-0 lead with less than six minutes to go. 

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Monday

MIAMI New York Jets (+2.5) over MIAMI DOLPHINS

Dolphins had a few extra days off after their 31-21 loss at Buffalo, Tua Tagovailoa is 6-0 lifetime vs. the Jets, and the Jets defense suffered a big loss in Quincy Williams. Dolphins are giving up an NFL-worst 32.3 ppg, though, so this is a good chance for offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand to get things done with Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. 

DENVER BRONCOS (-7.5) over Cincinnati Bengals

Jake Browning has thrown five interceptions in a game and a half since replacing the injured Joe Burrow. The Broncos have a fully healthy defense led by All-Pro CB Patrick Surtain II to throw at Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

BEST BETS: Packers, Patriots, Raiders.

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Packers (Locks 1-2 in 2025).

LAST WEEK: 5-10-1 overall, 0-2-1 Best Bets.

THURSDAY: Seahawks.