It’s gotten a little tighter. This week, it can only further tighten by one game.
For Week 3, Simms won the microcontest, going 12-4 straight up against my 10-6. For the season, I’m 36-12 and he’s 29-19. He went 3-1 in our four disagreements. (He would have swept me, 4-0, but for Jordan Davis.)
Against the spread, I was 8-8. He was 7-9. I’m 26-22 for the year. He’s 19-29.
We disagree on only one game for Week 4.
For all Week 4 picks, keep reading.
And if you bet, please do so responsibly. Plenty of people will crow about their wins. They clam up about their losses. Over time, the losses will for the vast majority of gamblers outpace the wins.
Seahawks (-1.5) at Cardinals
Both teams are playing better than expected. The Seahawks have looked, in all, just a little better than the Cardinals.
Florio’s pick: Seahawks 23, Cardinals 20.
Simms’s pick: Seahawks 24, Cardinals 20.
Vikings (-2.5) vs. Steelers at Dublin
The Pittsburgh formula for 2025 (so far) is simple — be outplayed generally, but not be outscored.
Florio’s pick: Steelers 24, Vikings 21.
Simms’s pick: Steelers 23, Vikings 20.
Commanders (-1.5) at Falcons
Dan Quinn would surely love to figuratively do the Falcons the thing that accidentally happened to him last week. (Also, why is the spread so small?)
Florio’s pick: Commanders 30, Falcons 17.
Simms’s pick: Commanders 24, Falcons 17.
Saints at Bills (-15.5)
Another week, another “moral victory” for a steep underdog at Buffalo.
Florio’s pick: Bills 24, Saints 14.
Simms’s pick: Bills 34, Saints 17.
Browns at Lions (-10)
The Lions are still the Lions, and the Browns lack the offensive punch to keep pace.
Florio’s pick: Lions 35, Browns 6.
Simms’s pick: Lions 28, Browns 13.
Titans at Texans (-7)
Both teams are showing signs of dysfunction. The Titans are showing more.
Florio’s pick: Texans 13, Titans 3.
Simms’s pick: Texans 24, Titans 10.
Panthers at Patriots (-5.5)
If the Patriots lose this one, they won’t make the playoffs.
Florio’s pick: Patriots 24, Panthers 13.
Simms’s pick: Patriots 27, Panthers 17.
Chargers (-6) at Giants
Jim Harbaugh has the Bolts rolling.
Florio’s pick: Chargers 27, Giants 17.
Simms’s pick: Chargers 31, Giants 16.
Eagles (-3.5) at Buccaneers
The Bucs have had Philly’s number lately. The Eagles will be extra motivated to end that trend.
Florio’s pick: Eagles 27, Buccaneers 23.
Simms’s pick: Eagles 31, Buccaneers 21.
Colts at Rams (-3.5)
How will the Rams recover from last week’s heartbreaker? Well enough to get the win.
Florio’s pick: Rams 27, Colts 17.
Simms’s pick: Rams 28, Colts 24.
Jaguars at 49ers (-3.5)
The 49ers are wounded, but they still know how to grab a win from a team that has a bad habit of giving them away.
Florio’s pick: 49ers 20, Jaguars 19.
Simms’s pick: Jaguars 21, 49ers 17.
Ravens (-2.5) at Chiefs
If the Ravens lose this one, things could get very ugly in Baltimore.
Florio’s pick: Ravens 27, Chiefs 23.
Simms’s pick: Ravens 30, Chiefs 21.
Bears at Raiders (-1.5)
It took a couple of weeks, but the Ben Johnson approach is working.
Florio’s pick: Bears 30, Raiders 27.
Simms’s pick: Bears 31, Raiders 24.
Packers (-7) at Cowboys
Would Jerry Jones rather win and have Micah Parsons get 3.5 sacks, or lose and see Micah get none?
Florio’s pick: Packers 34, Cowboys 20.
Simms’s pick: Packers 31, Cowboys 21.
Jets at Dolphins (-2.5)
A win won’t change everything for the Dolphins. A loss would grease the skids toward the potentially inevitable implosion.
Florio’s pick: Dolphins 24, Jets 16.
Simms’s pick: Dolphins 23, Jets 20.
Bengals at Broncos (-7.5)
The Broncos cannot afford to fall to 1-3.
Florio’s pick: Broncos 28, Bengals 10.
Simms’s pick: Broncos 34, Bengals 17.
