After being listed as questionable, DT Milton Williams (ankle) and CB Carlton Davis III (illness) are officially active for the Patriots. New England’s game-day inactives are OLB K’Lavon Chaisson (knee), DT Eric Gregory, G Caedan Wallace, WR Efton Chism III, and QB Tommy DeVito is the emergency third quarterback. The Bills inactives are DT Ed Oliver (ankle), DT T.J. Sanders (knee), WR Elijah Moore, CB Brandon Codrington, FS Jordan Hancock, OLB Dorian Williams, and OT Chase Lundt.
Starting with the active Patriots defenders, Williams is reportedly managing a minor ankle injury. The stud defensive tackle practiced in a limited capacity on Wednesday and Friday, but sat out Thursday’s practice this week. The big free-agent signing ranks second among interior rushers in pass-rush win rate (19.2%) with two sacks and 11 total pressures. Rushing alongside DT Christian Barmore, Williams has been a key piece in a Pats defense that ranks in the top-10 in pass-rush and run-stop win rate. With the reigning MVP on the other side, Williams being active is huge for New England’s defense on Sunday night.
Although he’s officially active, it’s unclear whether or not Williams’ snaps will be limited by his ankle injury. If he’s not a full-go, the Patriots could manage Williams’ workload by using players in situational roles. For example, third-year DE Keion White was one of the more disruptive interior pass-rushers a year ago, leading all defenders with a 16.2% pressure rate at defensive tackle last season. The Pats have also gotten sturdy run defense from NT Khyiris Tonga and fourth-round rookie Joshua Farmer, so the two run-stuffing defensive tackles could get more playing time against a Bills offense that leads the NFL in rush EPA.
Along with Williams, starting CB Carlton Davis III is active after battling an illness this week. In Week 4, the Patriots got their top cornerback tandem on the field together, with All-Pro CB Christian Gonzalez joining forces with Davis in a blowout victory over the Panthers. According to NextGen Stats, the Pats defense allowed 5.0 yards per pass attempt with Gonzalez on the field, a major improvement from the 9.0 yards per pass attempt without Gonzo in Weeks 1-3 (second-highest mark in the NFL).
When the Patriots signed Davis in the offseason, the goal was for him and Gonzalez to be a lockdown duo that majored in man coverage. Due largely to Gonzalez’s injury, New England’s pass defense struggled in the first three weeks, especially in man coverage, which wasn’t the plan coming into the season. With their starting corners now healthy, hopefully we see the Patriots offseason vision come to life against the Bills.
The pre-game injury news for the Patriots defense was mostly positive with Davis and Williams active. However, New England ruled out starting edge rusher K’Lavon Chaisson (knee) en route to Buffalo on Saturday. Chaisson started the first four games of the season on the edge opposite captain Harold Landry, ranking second on the team with 13 total pressures this season. Unfortunately, Chaisson, who has been managing a knee injury over the last two weeks, won’t play vs. the Bills, creating a void that needs to be filled on Sunday night.
From this perspective, the Patriots could replace Chaisson’s snaps by committee. Buffalo leads the NFL in rush EPA thanks to Allen and top RB James Cook, who has added a traditional run dimension to the Bills offense. Given that Cook is a matchup problem, it might make sense to lean more on edge-setter Anfernee Jennings against the Bills outside zone-heavy scheme, then give pass-rush edge snaps to Keion White. By combining Jennings and White’s skillsets, the Pats could shore up their run defense on early downs and pressure Allen in passing situations.
The other defender who could factor into the edge rotation is LB Jahlani Tavai, who was activated off injured reserve this week after missing the first four games due to a calf injury. Tavai was at his best in a hybrid role where he played some on and off-the-line linebacker, using his versatility to plug holes in the front seven. With captain Robert Spillane as the traditional MIKE linebacker, Tavai should be able to move around the front some as he did in his best season as a pro in 2023, while also competing for snaps at weakside linebacker, where Christian Elliss and Jack Gibbens have been up-and-down in the first month of the season.
Moving over to the Patriots offense, QB Drake Maye and his supporting cast are healthy heading into what could be a high-scoring game against the Bills second-ranked scoring offense. With all the Pats regulars active, the only questions are about how snaps will be divided up at a few key positions, such as left guard and wide receiver.
Along the offensive line, head coach Mike Vrabel said earlier this week that rookie Jared Wilson will start at left guard. Wilson missed last week’s game due to ankle and knee injuries, but didn’t carry an injury designation heading into Week 5. There was some media chatter about possibly sticking with veteran guard Ben Brown, who filled in nicely for Wilson last week. Still, the Patriots are sticking with the third-rounder while prioritizing Wilson’s long-term development.
“The plan is to start Jared [Wilson] and continue that development there on the left side,” Vrabel said on Friday. “If we need Ben [Brown] or we need Vederian [Lowe] or we need Marcus [Bryant], those guys are ready to step in there and perform in the game like Ben did last week.”
At wide receiver, undrafted rookie Efton Chism III is a healthy scratch for the fifth consecutive game. From this perspective, Chism hasn’t cracked the game-day lineup due to some redundancy with go-to target Stefon Diggs and slot WR DeMario Douglas. The Patriots also want to give opportunities to third-rounder Kyle Williams, while veterans Kashon Boutte and Mack Hollins have carved out roles as base receivers.
Ultimately, there are still only so many reps to go around at wide receiver. For instance, Douglas only played eight snaps, all in the slot, in last week’s win over the Panthers. Douglas has seen his role reduced since Week 2 and is being used more as a motion/gadget threat than a full-time slot receiver. Chism, who was mimicking Bills WR Khalil Shakir on the scout team this week during practice, continues to be the odd man out.
New England heads into Sunday night’s game as 7.5-point underdogs. Buffalo has won 14 consecutive home games, five consecutive AFC East titles, and is 4-0 to start the season. Although it’ll be a challenge, New England has embraced playing the underdog role this week, while understanding it needs to start competing with teams like the Bills to take the next step under head coach Mike Vrabel.
The Patriots visit the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium with kickoff at 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday night.
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