FOXBORO — Miami Gardens hasn’t been a desired destination for the New England Patriots over the years. To put it kindly.
The Patriots haven’t beaten the Dolphins in Miami since Tom Brady was calling plays in 2019. They’ve left Miami with a win just twice since 2013, with a 2-10 record in that 12-year span.
That could change this Sunday, as Drake Maye and Co. face a Dolphins team that fell 33-8 to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1. Then again, the Patriots didn’t exactly look like world-beaters in their 20-13 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders last Sunday.
How can New England deliver a better performance in Miami on Sunday? Here are four matchups we have circled for Week 2.
Matchup that will determine the outcome
Drake Maye vs. What’s on Drake Maye’s plate
The conversation this week surrounding Drake Maye has focused largely on what he can and can’t (or shouldn’t have to) handle within the Patriots offense. Whether or not he can beat the Dolphins in Week 2 could depend largely on what adjustments, if any, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and head coach Mike Vrabel make in order to allow Maye to feel more comfortable.
Will that include calling more designed runs to allow him to use his athleticism and get him settled into the game? Will it mean more leeway to take off and run — whether that results in a scramble-drill throw or a carry beyond the line of scrimmage — when he feels the urge?
Will it mean fewer check-with-me plays, where Maye can change the call at the line of scrimmage depending on the look? Will it involve decreasing the volume of the plays in the game plan for Miami?
The biggest adjustment might have to come from Maye himself: slowing himself down to complete the throws he knows he can make. He acknowledged Wednesday that on some of the attempts he’d like to have back from Week 1, he felt hurried.
Drake Maye shares why he feels confident in managing his responsibilities and doesn’t believe he’s taking on too much.
“Some of it was rushing them,” he said. “I see them and kinda rush it to try to get it out to them as quick as I can. The one to Pop (DeMario Douglas) getting close to the sideline, with kind of a trap corner there, (I was) trying to get it out as soon as I can to get the first.
“From there, really, I feel like I was throwing it pretty good. Seeing it well. Sometimes there’s throws where I say, ‘Man, that could’ve helped us.’ Thought I made some pretty good throws throughout the game that I felt good about accuracy-wise.
“I’m not gonna harp on too much. At the same time, you gotta hit guys that are open. It’s an even balance. Accuracy is one of the biggest things for a quarterback. Being accurate is what I take pride in. Can’t miss open guys.”
The Patriots could simply opt for the same type of plan in Week 2, anticipating that Maye will complete the lower-degree-of-difficulty passes that ended up as scattershot attempts against the Raiders. A few more completions in the opener, the coaching staff could argue, and the outcome might’ve been different.
The door is open for a bounce-back performance from Maye in Miami. The blueprint could have been laid out for him after the Dolphins failed to contain Daniel Jones and the Colts’ quick-hitting passing attack in Week 1. Jones averaged 7.4 yards per attempt on throws made in 2.5 seconds or less against Miami, which was fifth-best in the NFL last week.
Maye struggled on those quick-strike plays in the opener against Vegas, averaging just 3.5 yards per attempt. However, as a rookie, Maye excelled when getting the football out quickly, ranking seventh among all qualifiers in completion rate when throwing in under 2.5 seconds after the snap (78.8 percent).
Matchup that will surprise you
Mike Vrabel vs. Mike McDaniel
Mike Vrabel has been open about it since the day he accepted the job to become Patriots head coach: He wanted his team to be able to take advantage of bad football. It came with some level of surprise, then, that the Patriots exhibited as much “bad football” as they did in Week 1.
Among the issues? Missed tackles. They missed 11 against the Raiders, per Pro Football Focus, including three each by starting linebackers Robert Spillane and Christian Elliss. Those misses contributed in part to the Patriots giving up the fifth-most yards after the catch in Week 1 (144).
If Vrabel’s players don’t have that aspect of the game fixed by Sunday, Mike McDaniel will take advantage.
The embattled Dolphins head coach has dealt with plenty of issues with his team of late, but his scheme has helped make Miami one of the best after-the-catch offenses in football in recent seasons. They led the league in “YAC” a season ago (1,586 yards) and still feature explosive weapons De’Von Achane (second in yards after the catch in 2024), Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
Getting those ball-carriers to the ground quickly will be the name of the game for Vrabel’s defense in Miami Gardens.
Matchup that will make your Sunday
Patriots pass rush vs. Dolphins backups
One of the bright spots for the Patriots in their season-opening defeat was that they were able to occasionally bother Raiders quarterback Geno Smith. They generated a 41 percent pressure rate, which ranked eighth in the NFL in Week 1 — a far cry from the 28.7 percent pressure rate they racked up over the breadth of the 2024 season.
They’ll have another shot to further bolster that number on Sunday against an undermanned Dolphins offensive line. Because of injuries suffered by James Daniels and Austin Jackson, Miami will have backups starting at both right tackle and right guard.
Good opportunity for Harold Landry (eight pressures in Week 1), Milton Williams (four), K’Lavon Chaisson (two) and Christian Barmore (one) to try to make themselves at home in the Dolphins in the backfield.
Matchup that will take years off your life
Patriots offensive line vs. Dolphins defensive front
The Patriots know they can’t continue on running the football the way they did in Week 1.
One of their most talented position groups is their running back unit. They have linemen who are built to move forward and grind out space for their backs to run. They have a young quarterback who would benefit greatly from the balance an effective ground attack would provide.
And yet it’s unclear whether or not they’ll be able to generate more push in Week 2 than they did against the Raiders. While Vegas deployed a front that devoted significant man power to the line of scrimmage, they were not as talented as the group the Patriots will face in Miami.
Zach Sieler is a formidable presence on the interior, making over $20 million per year. Former University of Michigan star Kenneth Grant was taken in the first round in the spring to further buttress the defensive tackle spot. Jaelan Phillips is a physically-gifted edge rusher with length. Bradley Chubb is coming off an 11-sack and six-forced-fumble season. Then there’s Chop Robinson, who is a young and explosive penetrator.
It’s worth noting that this group allowed 150 yards rushing to Indianapolis last week. But if the Patriots had issues moving the ball against Las Vegas, they could experience similar speed bumps in South Beach.
Prediction: Dolphins 24, Patriots 20
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