FOXBORO — Drake Maye is about to handle a new kind of pressure.
The second-year Patriots quarterback has yet to start in a primetime game as a pro, with Jacoby Brissett getting last year’s Thursday Night Football start against the Jets. Maye also faced few, if any, road crowds during his college days at North Carolina like the one he’ll see in Western New York on Sunday night.
“It’s always a little extra juice,” Maye said this week, “playing (in) primetime.”
While Maye has acknowledged that he gets a little too amped up at times — perhaps leading to wayward throws like his first pass of the game last week against Carolina, which sailed high — he has also shown a certain calmness in spots that, on their face, look hairy.
Take his recent play on third and fourth down, for example. He’s seen 36 such plays over the last three weeks and leads the NFL in EPA per play (0.825) in those situations while ranking third in success rate (61.1 percent).
He’s proven to show real accuracy in those moments — including a long fourth-down completion to Stefon Diggs last week — with a league-leading 88 percent completion rate on third and fourth down, and his completion percentage over expected (25.6) is more than double the No. 2 passer in that category since Week 2 (Jalen Hurts, 12.3). No quarterback in the NFL has a better passer rating than Maye (133.3) on third and fourth down during that span.
Patriots coach Mike Vrabel was asked about Maye’s third-down success on Friday.
“It starts with protection,” Vrabel explained. “If we can protect the quarterback, I would say keeping it to third and manageable and not getting out over our skis in third-and-extra-longs, forces us to move the ball down the field in potentially a lot of coverage.
“… We’ve converted some of those. We’ve done a nice job in converting some of those. Ball placement is critical. If it’s man (coverage), putting it somewhere out in front. Zone (coverage), being decisive and getting it to guys and guys being able to drop-step and get the first down.”
Maye has shown some poise under physical pressure this season, too. Though he’s tied for third in sacks (13), he’s ninth among qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per dropback under pressure, and he’s seventh in yards per attempt under pressure (8.4).
Playing in Orchard Park will come with it a new kind of stress. But if Maye can avoid getting rattled — and he’s done well in that regard when faced with challenging down-and-distance scenarios the last three weeks — he could help his team give the Bills a scare.
How can they pull it off? Let’s get to the matchups…
Matchup that will make your Sunday
Patriots off-tackle runs vs. Bills edge-setters
If the Patriots are going to keep this one close, their best path may be to run the ball. Specifically, they’ll want to run the ball outside. Why? No defense has seen a greater percentage of run plays go to the outside than the Buffalo’s, per NextGen Stats (63.3 percent), and the Bills’ defense ranks 29th in EPA per run outside the tackles.
Furthermore, the Bills rank last in the league in allowing runs of 10 yards or more (26), and they’re last in allowing yards after contact per attempt (4.44). They are second-to-last in the NFL in rush yards allowed per game (164.3), and they’re 30th in the league in yards per rush (6.0).
Call it what it is: The Bills have been soft against opposing rushing attacks.
If the Patriots can attack by running off of their tackles and tight ends, they should find openings. Those types of plays can be of the wide-zone variety, which were unleashed in Miami and were followed by play-action bootlegs sold by those types of rushing attempts. They can also be schemed-up designs from offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who concocted a jet-sweep run for Antonio Gibson that picked up a chunk gain against the Panthers.
To this point in the season, they’ve worked. The Patriots are most efficient when running outside, picking up .263 EPA per rush off left tackle and .371 EPA per rush off right tackle.
Matchup we’ve all been waiting for
Drake Maye vs. Sean McDermott
While the Bills have been permissive against the run, it’s been another story entirely when opponents have tried to pass on Sean McDermott’s defense.
The Bills tops in the league in pass yards allowed per game (125.8) and yards per pass (4.5). They do an excellent job of keeping things in front of them — they’re second in the NFL in deep pass yards allowed per game (12.3) — and rallying to the football in the passing game to bring down receivers, ranking second in NextGen’s yards after the catch over expected metric.
McDermott blitzed Maye again and again in their lone matchup last season. The Bills head coach dialed up extra rushers on 42.5 percent of Maye’s dropbacks, which was Buffalo’s highest blitz rate in any game last season. Maye completed just six of his 16 attempts against the blitz for 67 yards and a pick.
Will McDermott take a similar approach this weekend? Maye has been much better against the blitz this season, completing 73.2 percent of his passes in those situations, third-best in the NFL. He also has four touchdowns and no interceptions when blitzed through four games this year.
What could help keep those blitzes at bay, if the Patriots want to avoid them altogether, would be to run the football efficiently and then deploy some play-action shots that work off of those run actions. New England is using the fifth-highest play-action rate in the league (27.6 percent) under McDaniels, and they’re sixth in play-action efficiency (0.35 EPA/play).
Matchup that could take years off your life
Bills defenders vs. Rhamondre Stevenson
One way in which this game could go sideways for the Patriots? More turnovers. And, interestingly enough, the Bills happen to be one of the more proficient-yet-unlucky teams in the NFL when it comes to generating turnover opportunities.
McDermott’s defense is third in the NFL when it comes to fumbles forced (six), behind only the Vikings (eight) and Steelers (seven). They’ve recovered only two of those, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be looking to create more on Sunday, particularly given the fumbling problems the Patriots put on tape back in Week 3 (four against Pittsburgh) and even prior to that.
An honorable mention for this particular category could be found in obvious passing situations for the Patriots. Will Campbell has proven to be one of the most NFL-ready rookie linemen in the league to this point in the season. He didn’t allow a pressure in Week 4, but he’ll face a challenge with some long-armed edge players on Sunday.
AJ Epenesa (34 1/2-inch arms) is second on the team in pressures (10) and spends all of his time on the offensive left. Greg Rousseau (34 3/8-inch arms) has nine pressures in four games and plays about 40 percent of his snaps on the offensive left. Joey Bosa doesn’t have quite the same reach (33 1/2-inch arms), but will play about half of his pass-rushing snaps on Campbell’s side.
Matchup that will determine the outcome
Josh Allen vs. Mike Vrabel
Stopping Josh Allen is a near-impossible task. But slowing him down? Vrabel and the Patriots may find they can throw off his timing with quick pressure, and they might have the personnel to do exactly that.
Harold Landry could lead the charge in that regard, as he has nine “quick” pressures this season (under 2.5 seconds after the snap), which is tied for sixth in the NFL.
Generating pressure from the interior also could thwart Bills play designs before they have the opportunity to develop, and New England’s interior rushers have been among the best in football this season. Christian Barmore is tied (with Jeffery Simmons of the Titans) for the league lead at that position with 15 pressures, while Milton Williams has 13. Together, they have more pressures than any interior defensive line duo in football.
Williams is dealing with an ankle injury that has him listed as “questionable” for Sunday, but if he can play, he’ll be key in trying to fluster one of the most unflappable quarterbacks in the NFL.
Prediction: Bills 30, Patriots 28
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