Software and data analytics giant Palantir Technologies , one of the hottest stocks of the year, has high expectations to beat when its earnings come out after Monday’s closing bell. The consensus Wall Street view is that Palantir stock appears overvalued. Analysts polled by LSEG have an average price target of $154.93, which implies more than 24% potential downside ahead. Of the 26 analysts that cover the name, 17 rate it a hold, while four give it a buy and two a strong buy. Shares of Palantir have soared about 172% year to date and reached a 52-week high on Monday ahead of results. The company’s tear since its public debut five years ago , along with its reliance on contracts with the U.S. government, has raised some eyebrows about the stock can keep climbing. PLTR 1Y mountain Palantir stock performance over the past year. While many analysts are cautious about Palantir’s valuation, several are bullish about its government contracts and ramping commercial businesses, notably the Palantir Artificial Intelligence Platform. The AIP is for companies that are looking to securely deploy AI models that use their own private data. Among the bulls is Piper Sandler analyst Clarke Jeffries, who has an overweight rating on Palantir. He said the company is “reaching an inflection point” in its commercial segment with accelerating, triple-digit growth in U.S. deal value and bookings. “We see PLTR as a secular beneficiary of the way organizations (both Federal & Commercial) must approach developing applications & data infrastructure in the age of AI,” he said in a mid-October note. Citi analyst Tyler Radke, who has a more cautious view on the stock, expects Palantir’s commercial business will be the driver of its third-quarter growth. He said a slate of new customers, including Oracle, Waste Management, Lumen and Snowflake, for AIP likely points to positive demand trends. Take a look at how top Wall Street analysts are positioned ahead of Palantir’s earnings: Citi Research: Maintained neutral rating, raised price target by $13 to $190 “We expect another strong [quarter] seeing positive checks across Government and Commercial businesses,” analyst Tyler Radke said in an Oct. 27 note to clients. “After an uncharacteristically large beat/raise last Q, we expect revenue upside in the ~5pt range and a more modest raise of ~3pts to the full year. This still implies accelerating growth, but a smaller revision [quarter over quarter]. We slightly raise our FY26+ revenue [compound annual growth rate] by ~1pt which increases our [target price] to $190 (implying ~90x FY26 EV/Sales) and maintain our Neutral/HR rating with extreme valuation paired with risk of more moderated revision trends.” Mizuho: Kept neutral rating, $165 price target “While checks on PLTR’s business are quite limited, enterprise inputs remain very healthy overall, albeit with slightly less partner momentum than what our 2Q inputs reflected,” analyst Gregg Moskowitz said in an Oct. 17 note. “Federal, meanwhile, continues to sound strong. We fully expect PLTR will accelerate total revenue growth for a 6th consecutive quarter, although we also believe it will very likely be a more modest beat than the exceptional 2Q. RBC Capital Markets: Maintained underperform rating, $45 price target “We’d flag three key themes: 1) potential upside from late quarter government budget flush; 2) continued strength in Commercial as enterprises accelerate Al adoption; 3) our sustained long-term skepticism around PLTR’s technology and its ability to deliver value commensurate with its premium pricing; and 4) focus on ongoing government shut-down. At this level we view the risk/reward skewed heavily to the downside,” analyst Rishi Jaluria wrote in an Oct. 27 note. Piper Sandler: Kept overweight rating, lifted price target by $19 to $201 “There is no argument PLTR’s valuation leaves no margin for error, particularly if any signs of moderating growth emerge, however we argue with tremendous visibility on future revenue ( > $7B of defined contract value + est. ~$4B of [indefinite delivery, indefinite quantity] contract value), accelerating triple-digit growth in Commercial bookings YTD, and unparalleled wallet share opportunity across $1T of U.S. Defense Spending (which could allow PLTR to 2-3x the current government business and still be 10x smaller that the biggest Defense Primes) – PLTR has not reached peak growth & therefore we do not see a catalyst to halt current momentum,” analyst Clarke Jeffries wrote in an Oct. 14 note to clients. D.A. Davidson: Maintained neutral rating “Palantir will continue to win,” Gil Luria said in a Sept. 22 note. “Palantir has built these capabilities over more than twenty years and they have the right strategy for this moment. Having said that, this doesn’t mean the rest of the software sector is doomed. Even if Palantir lives up to the growth implied by its multiple (40-50% CAGR over the next 4-5 years) it will still generate less revenue and profit at that horizon than Adobe generates today.”
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