CHONGQING, CHINA – JULY 31: In this photo illustration, a person holds a smartphone displaying the logo of Opendoor Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: OPEN), an American online real estate platform company, with the company’s initial O branding visible in the background, on July 31, 2025 in Chongqing, China. (Photo illustration by Cheng Xin/Getty Images)
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Opendoor Technologies (NASDAQ: OPEN), the trailblazer of the iBuying model in real estate, has witnessed a significant rebound in its stock in 2025. Shares are currently priced at $5, reflecting an increase of nearly 180% year-to-date, driven by optimism surrounding housing market stabilization, improved unit economics, and the company’s shift towards profitability. However, investors are questioning whether Opendoor could double again, reaching $9–10 per share. Let’s examine the argument. But if you are looking for an upside with reduced volatility compared to holding an individual stock, consider the High Quality Portfolio. It has consistently outperformed its benchmark—a mix of the S&P 500, Russell, and S&P MidCap indexes—and has achieved returns surpassing 91% since its inception. Separately, see – Alcoa Stock To Less Than $16?
Core Thesis: The Path to $9–10
Revenue Recovery & Valuation Reset
Opendoor recorded $6.9 billion in revenue in 2023 and $5.2 billion in 2024, a decline from pandemic peaks when volumes surged. However, with early signs of recovery in U.S. housing transactions, analysts forecast revenues to re-accelerate toward $12–13 billion by 2026.
At the current price, Opendoor is trading at only 0.3x forward sales, a significant discount compared to digital marketplaces and competitors such as Zillow (3x). If revenues recover to $12 billion and the P/S multiple modestly re-rates to between 0.7 and 1.0x, the stock could feasibly trade around $9–10 per share—a potential doubling from current prices.
The takeaway here is straightforward: Opendoor does not require exorbitant multiples to yield returns. Stabilized revenues coupled with even slight valuation normalization could drive significant upside.
Key Growth Drivers
- Housing Market Stabilization- As mortgage rates decrease and inventory stays constrained, transaction activity is anticipated to rise. Opendoor’s scale and pricing technology are well-positioned to capitalize on this recovery.
- Improving Unit Economics – Gross margins have increased from negative figures in 2022 to roughly 5–6% in 2024, thanks to enhanced pricing algorithms and shorter inventory holding periods. This transition is vital for sustainable profitability.
- Diversified Services Beyond iBuying – Opendoor is branching out into mortgage, title, and home services, increasing revenue per customer while lessening dependence on narrow iBuying spreads.
- Partnership Ecosystem – Collaborations with Zillow, Realtor.com, and homebuilders enhance deal flow and reinforce Opendoor’s distribution network.
- Path Toward Profitability – The company has posted positive adjusted EBITDA in recent quarters and is projected to significantly reduce net losses by 2025. This profitability benchmark could spark institutional investor interest and lead to multiple expansion.
Of Course there are Risks
- Housing Cyclicality: A renewed downturn in the housing market or consistently high mortgage rates could hinder recovery.
- Thin Margins: Even with improvements, margins remain precarious—small pricing errors or shifts in demand could result in losses.
- Capital Intensity: The iBuying model demands substantial balance sheet capacity to maintain inventory.
- Competition: Zillow, Redfin, and traditional realtors continue to dominate the housing ecosystem.
- Investor Skepticism: Previous volatility in Opendoor’s model means the market may be reluctant to assign it higher multiples without evidence of sustained profitability.
The Verdict
At approximately $5 per share, Opendoor is trading at valuations resembling distress despite stabilizing fundamentals. If revenues bounce back toward $12 billion and the company persistently enhances unit economics, the calculations support a share price in the $9–10 range—a plausible doubling from current values.
That said, Opendoor continues to be a high-risk, high-reward narrative, closely tied to the housing cycle and still demonstrating its profitability model. For investors with a strong belief in a housing rebound and the digital transformation of real estate, Opendoor presents asymmetric upside.
At $5, Opendoor is still in the early stages of recovery. At $9–10, it would signify not just a turnaround, but also a validation that its iBuying model can scale sustainably.
Investors must be ready for substantial volatility and the possibility of significant losses if market conditions worsen or if the company fails to deliver on its ambitious growth objectives. While the potential for a 2x upside is mathematically sound based on anticipated revenues, it necessitates flawless execution in a rapidly changing and competitive environment. Now, we apply a risk assessment framework while constructing the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, which, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 4-year period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.
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