Good morning from Chicago,
The Padres did not get the opportunity to soak the carpet at someone else’s ballpark, so they will have to pay the cleaning bill after celebrating at home sometime this week.
Could be as soon as tonight.
While the playoff picture has gotten a little fuzzy in the National League, it is as clear as ever for the Padres.
“Win,” Manny Machado said.
Yes, the Padres are one victory away from clinching a postseason berth.
Yesterday’s 3-2 escape against the White Sox and a loss by the Mets dropped the Padres’ magic number to one.
That means their next victory or the next loss by the Mets assures the Padres of a playoff spot.
We have all been paying attention to what the Reds and Diamondbacks were doing and figuring it was virtually without a doubt the Padres were headed to Chicago again next week.
But then the Mets got back to losing, dropping two of three against the Nationals over the weekend. Meanwhile, the Cubs scored a total of seven runs while being swept by the Reds.
With that, the Padres gained two games on the Cubs in the past three days.
The Mets, Reds and Diamondbacks do not play today.
It remains likely the Padres will ultimately end up as the No. 5 seed and play the Cubs at Wrigley field in next week’s wild-card series. Their magic number to clinch the fifth seed is two. That means any combination of two Padres victories and Reds losses.
The Cubs’ magic number to clinch the fourth seed and the home wild-card series that comes with it is three over the Padres. So, for instance, the Padres could pass the Cubs by going 6-0 this week while the Cubs go no better than 3-3. (The Padres would win the tiebreaker based on having a better intradivision record.)
So it still seems the Padres will get another chance at celebrating in Chicago.
What’s left to do
You can read in my story (here) about arguably the most important thing to come of yesterday’s game — that Michael King got back to looking like Michael King for at least most of his five-plus innings.
You can read how the victory came about in my game story (here). But let me sum it up for you: The Padres won another game with some largely uninspiring play.
When asked what he would like to see from his team in the final week of the regular season, Mike Shildt said he was already starting to see it.
“I like the way we’ve gone about things the last couple of days,” Shildt said. “I mean, we didn’t add on offensively. We did yesterday. Real toughness with the at-bats. Defense, really good the last several days. … The bullpen is in a good spot, starting pitching is rounding into shape. And the offense continues to take consistent at-bats. So that’s the recipe for what we want to continue to do, build on and then go beyond and go deep — very, very, very deep.”
That is the recipe. But it also sounded like a wish list rather than a fully accurate accounting of how the Padres played against the severely outmanned White Sox or have played consistently for some time against similarly bad teams.
We will spend some time later this week talking about what has happened with the Padres, who are 9-10 in September and 11-15 since Aug. 24, and what it might mean for their postseason chances.
They are in an interesting spot now.
On one hand, they would like to go into the postseason playing better than they have been.
“There’s no doubt you want to feel good going into the playoffs,” Ryan O’Hearn said. “So the more guys that can get locked in and ready to rock on into October, the better. It’s gonna take a lot of good hitters to score runs in the playoffs. We have a lot of good hitters. We want our guys to be locked in and ready to go.”
On the other hand, the Padres also have players who could use some rest.
“Creating momentum,” Fernando Tatis Jr. said of the goal for this final week. “But after we’re in, you know, it’s about now being smart. Take those days to get everybody on the right spot to go to the postseason and just go crazy.”
Strand man
An argument can be made that no Padres player has been more essential to the team’s success than Adrian Morejón has been this season.
He earned his 20th hold yesterday, a day after getting his 13th win.
The 25-year-old left-hander owns a 2.04 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP over 70⅔ innings across 72 appearances. The ERA ranks sixth among MLB relievers with at least 70 innings while the WHIP is second.
His .183 batting average allowed, fifth best, includes his holding right-handed batters to a .217 mark. His average of 13.6 pitches per inning ranks third.
“He’s a huge reason we’re in the position we’re in,” Shildt said. “And the thing that is wonderful about Adrian — of many, but to start with — is he can take down any situation. He has shown up in the fourth and the next night grabbed the ninth. He has shown up in the eighth. (Saturday) night, he showed up in the seventh, and today showed up in the sixth with the bases loaded.”
That last part is at the heart of why Morejón must be considered among the Padres’ pillars.
He took over for King in the sixth inning with nobody out and no room on the bases, and he walked off the mound 12 pitches later with no one having scored.
Morejón has stranded all but five of the 45 runners he has inherited. That 11.1% scoring rate is second best among qualifying relievers this season behind the Dodgers’ Ben Casparius 3.4% (one of 29).
If it holds, Morejón’s mark will be the best in the major leagues since 2016 by a pitcher who inherited at least 45 runners.
Morejón, still just 25, seems to have found his niche six years after making his major league debut, being tried as a starter and enduring a half-dozen interruptions to his career caused by injury. I wrote (here) a little about that at the All-Star game.
“I think for me, the thing that could bring so much joy to myself is that I’ve been healthy all year round and I’ve been able to contribute to all these wins and giving the opportunity for this team to win,” Morejón said. “Sure, I’ve gone to the All-Star Game, I’ve been pitching a lot, but really what I’m proud of is that I’ve been able to be healthy and been able to contribute to wins.”
In part because of all he has been through, there are few players who longtime teammates are more happy for than Morejón.
“It’s awesome,” Machado said. “Just to see him develop and be healthy. We always knew what he had. It’s nothing new. But for him to put it all together is sick.”
Not the Manny
Fernando Tatis Jr. was 2-for-5 with a home run yesterday. He has multiple hits in seven of his past 15 games and has homered four times in that span.
Jackson Merrill was 1-for-4 yesterday after hitting a home run and a double on Saturday. He is batting .317 (19-for-60) with 13 extra-base hits (six homers, two triples and five doubles) over his past 15 games.
Yet the Padres can’t quite pull out of a funk that is pretty close to a month long.
Machado knows why.
“I have hit .100,” he said. “I’ve sucked. And we’ve lost.”
That isn’t the only reason.
“It absolutely is,” Machado said.
Well, anyway, it’s not quite that bad.
Save it
The No.1 thing on the minds of Padres fans, if I am to gauge by the preponderance of emails I have received in recent days, is why Robert Suarez is still the Padres’ closer when Mason Miller is so awesome.
Perhaps today is a good day to visit that, given that Miller walked in two runs and Suarez became the fifth Padres pitcher to ever reach 40 saves in a season.
Do not take that as a slam of Miller or an endorsement of Suarez as the closer. It is simply a reminder that what you don’t have is not always better than what you do.
And the thing about this particular debate is that the Padres have both.
“It is a great opportunity for both those guys,” Shildt said. “The thing about Robert is he’s just been so darn good to close the game.”
So that is the answer — that the Padres have a pitcher who leads the National League in saves and has converted 76 of his 87 save opportunities in the two seasons he has been their closer.
Miller has 21 saves in 25 opportunities this season after converting 28 of 31 opportunities last season.
Only one of his saves this season has come with the Padres, who have used him almost exclusively as a setup man. That has mostly meant the eighth inning, though he has been called on in the seventh a few times.
Shildt said how he uses Suarez and Miller could change in the postseason.
“It hasn’t been as fluid,” he said. “It can be fluid. We’ll continue to evaluate the best matchups for the lanes. … We’ll continue to explore it.”
I pointed out to Shildt that since being acquired at the deadline, Miller’s “lane” has been pretty much any batter he has faced.
“That’s fair,” Shildt replied.
Miller has a 0.86 ERA over 21 innings (20 appearances) while striking out 52% of the batters he has faced while pitching for the Padres.
Before taking over from Kyle Hart with one out and the bases loaded in the eighth inning yesterday and walking two batters, Miller had also stranded all four runners he had inherited.
And he has worked most often against batters in the top or middle of the opposing team’s order.
“Whoever is pitching in the middle of the order is pretty important,” Shildt said. “It’s a lot of times the eighth.”
Words to work
O’Hearn acknowledged last week that he was playing poorly, though he used a different phrase. He said he would like to contribute more.
He was not just talking. He was spending a lot of time in the batting cage.
“Without a doubt, I’ve been putting in the work,” he said Saturday night. “A lot of swings before the game, during the game. It feels good to contribute. First time I’ve been on time for a fastball in a while, so I’m gonna study that swing, figure out what I was doing, go with that feel. … Hopefully, you know, keep this thing rolling.”
He said that after he followed up an RBI single on Friday by going 3-for-4 with three RBIs on Saturday.
Yesterday, he was again 3-for-4.
Crone zone is wherever
The Padres expect shortstop Xander Bogaerts back today.
That gives him six games to gear up for the postseason after missing nearly a month with a fracture in his left foot.
That also moves Jake Cronenworth back to second base after filling in at shortstop most of the games Bogaerts missed.
“Jake is one of these get-it-done guys,” Shildt said. “He can just get it done almost regardless of where you play him. He wants to do it. Just because you want to do it doesn’t mean you’re good at it, but he wants to do it because he is good at it. He’s just a good ballplayer. I think he has done fine. He has been in the right position, caught the ball, been able to take care of different angles, you know.”
Cronenworth started 45 games at shortstop his first three seasons in the major leagues, including 36 times in 2021. But he had not played the position since 2022 before doing so this season. Shildt initially balked at moving Cronenworth over from second base, because the transition to the other side of the infield is not as easy as it might seem. Shildt also gave the nod to Jose Iglesias’ defense.
But the left-handed-hitting Cronenworth is batting .250 and getting on base at a .371 clip this season compared to Iglesias’ .223 average and .294 on-base percentage. Iglesias is also batting .215 against right-handed pitchers.
So Cronenworth started nine of the past 11 games on the left side.
“When we go with the lineup that we want to create a little bit more of a left-handed offensive look, Jake is at shortstop,” Shildt said. “And he has done a great job with it.”
Cronenworth, who came up through the minor leagues playing primarily at shortstop, shrugged off the praise.
“I’ve probably played more games at short in my pro career than any position,” he said. “It’s always a little different when you go to a (different) spot. But having the background I have makes a difference.”
Tidbits
- The Padres’ 178 victories over the past two seasons are their most ever in back-to-back years, surpassing the total from 2006 (88-74) and ‘07 (89-74). Shildt is the only Padres manager to win that many games in successive seasons, as Bruce Bochy managed the ‘06 club and Bud Black took over in ‘07.
- Tatis hit his 150th career home run yesterday. He is four shy of tying Dave Winfield for fifth most by a Padres player. Tatis has also moved into a tie with Machado in career bWAR. According to baseball-reference, Tatis and Machado are tied with a 27.0 WAR, which is third in club history behind Winfield (32.0) and Tony Gwynn (69.2).
- Luis Arraez was 1-for-3 with a walk yesterday and is batting .350 (14-for-40) during a 10-game hitting streak.
- Cronenworth extended his on-base streak to 10 games by going 1-for-4 yesterday.
- Morejón’s 13 wins are most by a reliever in the Major Leagues since Roger McDowell (Mets) and Mark Eichorn (Blue Jays) both had 14 in 1986.
All right, that’s it for me.
Talk to you tomorrow.
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