Artificial intelligence bellwether Nvidia (NVDA) is slated to report quarterly results after markets close later today, with traders prepared for a big stock move.
Nvidia’s stock is expected to move approximately 6.2% in either direction by the end of the week, according to options pricing data. That big of a move from Tuesday’s close would put shares at either $192.88, an all-time high that translates to a $4.7 trillion market capitalization, or $170.66, its lowest price since mid-July.
Nvidia has reported earnings 10 times since the release of ChatGPT in late 2022 sparked the AI craze that’s made it the world’s most valuable company. The stock posted double-digit gains in the days after four of those reports, most recently in May 2024.
But Nvidia’s earnings have struggled recently to clear the exceptionally high bar set by Wall Street. In the past four quarters, Nvidia stock has moved an average of 3.2% between reporting earnings and the end of the week. On only one of those occasions—the most recent report in May—did Nvidia finish the week above where it was before reporting earnings.
Investors will be scrutinizing Nvidia’s report Wednesday for confirmation that AI demand remains strong. Hyperscalers Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), and Amazon (AMZN) all recently stood by plans to spend hundreds of billions of dollars this year on data center infrastructure and other capital goods, citing robust demand for AI and cloud computing. Nvidia, with an estimated 80% to 90% share of the AI chip market, should be the biggest beneficiary of that spending.
Wall Street will also be hoping for updates on sales to China. Nvidia warned in May that the Trump administration’s decision to tighten China export controls could cost it up to $8 billion in the second quarter. Earlier this month, Nvidia and competitor Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) struck a deal with the Trump administration that allows them to resume sales of key AI chips to China in exchange for a 15% cut. That deal came too late to have any impact on Wednesday’s results, but it should be factored into Nvidia’s guidance.
Analysts are overwhelmingly bullish on Nvidia. Of the 14 analysts tracked by Visible Alpha with current ratings on Nvidia’s stock, 13 rate it a “buy” and one gives it a neutral “hold” rating. Their targets range from $155 to $225, with the majority above $200. The stock was little changed near $182 in early trading Wednesday ahead of the results.
UPDATE—Aug. 27, 2025: This story has been updated with the latest options and share prices.
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