The first Emerson College Polling survey of the 2026 U.S. Senate race in North Carolina finds former Governor Roy Cooper starting the race with a six-point edge on Republican National Committee Chair, Michael Whatley, 47% to 41%, with 12% undecided.
Cooper starts with significantly higher name recognition: 51% have a favorable view of the former Governor, 33% have a negative view of him, 13% are unsure, and 3% are not familiar with him. Whatley has a 17% favorable rating and 16% unfavorable rating, while 30% are unsure and 36% are not familiar with Whatley.
“With over a year to go until the North Carolina U.S. Senate race, Whatley’s low name recognition presents both a challenge and an opportunity, while only 17% view him favorably, nearly two-thirds of voters either don’t know him or are unsure. That leaves room for his campaign to define him before his opponent does,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “In contrast, Cooper enters the race with significantly higher name recognition and a more favorable public image.”
Former Governor Cooper starts the race with a 19-point lead among independent voters, who support Cooper over Whatley, 47% to 28%. Cooper has a 25-point advantage on Whately among voters under 50, 54% to 29%, whereas Whatley leads with voters over 50 by 11 points, 52% to 41%.”
Retiring Senator Thom Tillis has a 30% favorable rating and a 43% unfavorable rating. “Senator Tillis’ retirement aligns with his weak favorability: just 41% of Republican voters view him favorably, while 35% view him unfavorably. He’s also underwater with independents, with 43% unfavorable and only 27% favorable,” Kimball noted.
Heading into his first season as the University of North Carolina football coach, Bill Belichick has a 24% favorable rating and a 27% unfavorable rating. Twenty-eight percent are neutral, and 20% have not heard of Belichick.
President Donald Trump holds a 46% job approval rating among North Carolina voters, and 44% disapproval. First term Governor Josh Stein holds a 41% job approval rating, and 25% disapproval; 35% are neutral or have no opinion.
On the generic 2026 congressional ballot test, the race is a toss-up: 41.5% support the Democrat and 41.3% support the Republican candidate.
Looking ahead to the 2028 presidential nomination contest, future Democratic and Republican primary voters were asked who they support in each primary.
In the Democratic Primary, 17% support former U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, 12% support former Vice President Kamala Harris, 10% California Governor Gavin Newsom, 7% Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, and 24% are undecided.
JD Vance leads the Republican nomination contest with 53%, up from his June national poll number of 46%. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis follows Vance with 7%, while 5% support Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Forty percent of North Carolina voters say they or their family’s finances are worse off than a year ago, 32% say their finances are about the same, and 28% say they are better off financially than a year ago.
Regarding the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, 36% think it will make a negative impact on their life, 31% think it will make a positive impact, and 10% think it will have no impact on their life.
Regarding the federal government’s overall response to hurricanes that hit the East Coast last year, 8% rate the response as excellent, 35% as good, 37% not so good, and 21% poor.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling North Carolina survey was conducted July 28-30, 2025. The overall sample of North Carolina registered voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The Democratic Primary has a sample size of n=445 likely primary voters with a credibility interval of +/- 4.6%. The Republican Primary has a sample size of n=416 likely primary voters with a credibility interval of +/- 4.8%. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting a voter list of cellphones via MMS-to-web text, emails (list for cellphones and emails provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by Commonwealth Opinions Panel and CINT. Panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with the exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was funded by Emerson College.
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