By Sean Gentille, Jesse Granger, Shayna Goldman, James Mirtle, Mark Lazerus and The Athletic NHL Staff
After two years of the Florida Panthers’ postseason dominance, is the road clear for another team to win the Stanley Cup? Can newly extended Connor McDavid take back the Hart Trophy after two years without it?
The 2025-26 NHL season is finally upon us, and that means it’s time for The Athletic to ask its staff for their predictions. Who will take home the individual awards? Who will make the playoffs? Who are the potential dark horses? Which fan base is bound for disappointment? We dig into it all, plus more.
To pick apart the results of our polling, provide context and give us a healthy critique, we’ve brought in NHL senior writers James Mirtle, Sean Gentille and Mark Lazerus, analytics know-it-all Shayna Goldman and goaltending expert Jesse Granger.
Lazerus: We are all Charlie Brown, and the Dallas Stars are our Lucy.
Gentille: Actually, the Golden Knights are my Lucy. Went with them ahead of the playoffs and clearly haven’t learned my lesson. I guess I just believe in Mitch Marner, y’know?
Mirtle: I went with the Lightning. They’re deep and quietly had a big regular season last year. If Florida is out of the way due to missing Aleksander Barkov (still a big if), the Atlantic really opens up.
Goldman: Also went with Tampa, but the one positive takeaway is that we think there is a very good chance of another Stars-Golden Knights Western Conference final, and I’m all for it.
Granger: This Stars roster actually reminds me of the Lightning squads from their back-to-back Cup wins because they have elite players at every level. Mikko Rantanen, Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston up front, Thomas Harley and Miro Heiskanen on the blue line, and Jake Oettinger, who I think has his best season yet.
Lazerus: We are all Charlie Brown, and the Carolina Hurricanes are our Lucy. (Seriously, how cliche are we? These were my two picks, too, by the way.)
Gentille: He’s not Rantanen, Marner or Jake Guentzel, but I think Nikolaj Ehlers has enough juice to help the Canes level up.
Mirtle: Everyone be-Leafs (in more heartbreak for Toronto). I’m surprised Colorado didn’t get more love as a finalist overall. Although Rantanen’s absence is real.
Granger: Not one vote for the Kings? After they signed Corey Perry?
Goldman: Haven’t we learned not to bet against a Florida team in the Stanley Cup Final?
Lazerus: This question doesn’t matter because the Penguins are going to win the draft lottery and get Gavin McKenna. And two decades from now, they’ll win the draft lottery and get Connor McDavid Jr. Sorry. Them’s the rules.
Gentille: If/when the Penguins get off to a bad start, look out.
Mirtle: I feel like we’re going to get a 2015 McDavid-level tank battle here between the bottom handful of teams over the final few months of the season.
Granger: If Nashville ends up in the running for this, Stan Bowman should be calling Barry Trotz every day asking about Juuse Saros. Yes, the contract is massive, but it’s a shot worth taking if the Predators are truly heading to a rebuild.
Goldman: Congrats to the Ducks for getting out of this vote for the first time in forever.
Lazerus: I don’t think this should be taken as a swipe at the Jets, and I think 100 points, as Dom’s model suggests, is a reasonable number. But to expect another Presidents’ Trophy type of season in a division with the Stars and Avalanche, and increasingly competitive teams such as Minnesota, St. Louis and Utah, just seems unlikely. You only get so many games against Nashville and Chicago.
Granger: I’m in complete agreement with Laz. The Jets will still be good, but so many things went their way in the regular season last year. It might be in their best interest to give Connor Hellebuyck a few more nights off, too.
Mirtle: Haven’t the Canadian teams had enough disappointment?
Goldman: There honestly isn’t a wrong answer here, because there’s disappointment on each level — if Edmonton doesn’t win the Cup this time, if the Leafs crash out in Round 1, if Carolina can’t move past the conference final, etc. But I think I lean Colorado here: if it loses again in Round 1, with two of the best players in the world … woof.
Gentille: Why should anyone believe in the Oilers’ goaltending or forward depth?
Lazerus: Maybe this is the year for those scrappy, upstart Panthers!
Mirtle: The thing we need to keep in mind is that Bill Zito might have $10 million in new cap room to pull a rabbit out of his hat. That alone increases their odds beyond what the model projects for the current roster. The Devils and Wild are good choices after all the injuries they went through last year, though.
Gentille: Yeah, I went with Minnesota here. If Kirill Kaprizov stays healthy and Filip Gustavsson is at his best, they have to be taken seriously.
Granger: Having the Panthers in this group seems … unfair?
Goldman: The Panthers are obviously a very logical pick here, but boring! I’m looking at Utah to prove me right this year.
Lazerus: Joel Quenneville taking over a rising team loaded with exciting young players and leading them to the playoffs? I think I’ve seen this one before. But the game evolves at warp speed these days. Will Quenneville be able to adapt after four years away?
Mirtle: I actually think the Islanders might be better than people expect, but I wouldn’t pick a playoff berth. I’m just not sure the Ducks’ blue line will hold up over a whole season, but the Pacific could be weak if the Kings take a step back.
Gentille: I’m out on all four of these teams overall and don’t like Anaheim’s blue line, either, but the Pacific Division is dodgy enough to make them interesting.
Goldman: I’d like the Islanders’ pick more if the Eastern Conference wild card picture wasn’t crowded already. If Mathew Barzal can pick up where he left off last year and Ilya Sorokin can stay elite, they should be a part of the conversation … but I think the Ducks have a more favorable path.
Granger: I like the Flames here. Calgary may not have high-end talent at forward or defense, but I like the depth and some exciting young players who could take steps. Dustin Wolf could be a Vezina contender, and if there’s a division with a playoff spot up for grabs, it’s the Pacific.
Lazerus: When seemingly three-quarters of the league was just hired in the past couple of months, you only have so many options here. I’m frankly surprised Andrew Brunette didn’t get a much higher percentage of the vote.
Granger: I like Brunette as a coach, but I had really no choice but to vote for him for those exact reasons.
Mirtle: You look at Nashville’s roster and I’m not sure the coach is to blame right now.
Gentille: I blame both.
Goldman: Honestly, I don’t know how Brunette even made it to this season. But another low-key option could be Jim Hiller, who already has a strike against him for last year’s playoff decision-making. Add in the fact that there is a new general manager in place in L.A. who didn’t bring in his own guy, and that seems like a possibility.
Lazerus: You really have to feel for Detroit and Buffalo fans at this point. It’s likely going to take a serious backslide from somebody — or the leap forward from one of them that we’ve been waiting on for eons — for the Red Wings or Sabres to end their playoff droughts.
Mirtle: I’d love to see Columbus pull it off, and they have so much young talent up front that could take a step. If Jet Greaves is the real deal, maybe this is the year?
Granger: I expected to be on more of an island picking the Rangers to bounce back, but it’s nice to see I’m not alone. They have too much talent to be that bad again, right?
Gentille: Mike Sullivan is a good hockey coach, too. It’s a hot take.
Goldman: The talent plus new coaching boost should be enough, but the No. 8 seed is really interesting to me. I have Montreal at No. 7, but I’m curious if Columbus or Buffalo can make the leap this year.
Lazerus: The dregs of the West are so much further back than the dregs of the East, but you also can make an argument that the four or five best teams in the league are all in the West. It might make for a more boring regular season, but it makes for a much better postseason.
Mirtle: Dallas, Edmonton and Winnipeg missing the playoffs? I guess stranger things have happened …
Granger: It feels like the top seven teams are essentially locks. Will the Kings beat Edmonton in the playoffs? Probably not, but they’re young, so good defensively and should stroll into the playoffs.
Goldman: Of last year’s playoff teams, the Kings feel like the most likely to disappoint and slip out (don’t blame me, blame Ken Holland). Maybe we’re not talking about the fact that most of us think the Canucks are cooked.
Gentille: I’m not going to pick the Canucks to win a thing until Elias Pettersson stops producing like a good 3C.
Lazerus: To be the man, you’ve got to beat the man. Until the U.S. actually wins one of these, Canada’s going to continue to get the benefit of the doubt.
Goldman: Nailed it, Laz. Also, the Sidney Crosby Factor in what is probably his last Olympic run.
Mirtle: Those are probably pretty close to the right odds, in my opinion. Higher for Sweden and Finland, though.
Granger: You have to feel for the Finns. Barkov’s injury was a bigger blow to Finland’s Olympic hopes than it was to the Panthers’ attempt at a three-peat.
Gentille: Italy makes it out of Group B.
Lazerus: McDavid, fresh after signing an extension, could be absolutely incredible. But I do want to see what this fully realized (and rather well-compensated) Kaprizov can do in a full 82 games. If he can stay healthy, he can make a real run at this.
Goldman: Agree on Kaprizov, he was my pick before he went down with an injury last year. Not having to split the vote with a teammate (like McDavid-Leon Draisaitl) works in his favor, too.
Gentille: I picked Kaprizov here, too. Oilers fatigue is going to set in at some point.
Mirtle: The Marner voter is trying to incite chaos.
Granger: If you really want to incite chaos, you pick Marner for the Conn Smythe.
Lazerus: Draisaitl has three 50-goal seasons in the past four. Auston Matthews might have the higher ceiling, but I’ll go with the higher floor here.
Granger: Interestingly enough, over the last three seasons, Matthews is third with 142 goals and Draisaitl is second with 145. First place, with 151 goals? David Pastrnak.
Mirtle: If Matthews is healthy, it’ll be him. But it’s unfortunately a big if right now.
Gentille: If he’s healthy, Marner will still play for a different team.
Goldman: Went with Tage Thompson, because let’s get weird! Maybe shifting to wing is the key to re-igniting his offense. Maybe the Sabres’ power play can get back on track. Maybe I am simply delusional.
Lazerus: Jackson LaCombe will soon be getting paid the same amount as Cale Makar. Can you imagine what Makar is going to make on his extension next summer?
Mirtle: Don’t sleep on Zach Werenski. He went to another level last year.
Granger: I know it’s only preseason, but Rasmus Dahlin has shown some signs that he may be reaching another level. If the Sabres’ power play improves even just a little, it could be enough to boost his points and get him into the Norris conversation.
Goldman: The bigger question is who will be the No. 3 with Makar and Quinn Hughes at the end. I like the Dahlin pick. I think Miro Heiskanen could get hurt by Thomas Harley if he fully takes over PP1 in Dallas.
Gentille: I still kind of feel bad that Hughes wasn’t rewarded for everything he put up with last season.
Lazerus: Sam Reinhart has deserved to win this award at least one of the last couple of seasons. With Barkov out for the season, I feel like it’s his to lose. (Though, among these players, Seth Jarvis might be the most fun to watch at both ends of the rink.)
Mirtle: I picked Nico Hischier, thinking I’d give an underrated candidate a boost. I failed. But this is a good candidate list to take over for Patrice Bergeron, Anze Kopitar and Barkov.
Granger: Reinhart is no longer splitting votes with Barkov, so I think he wins it.
Goldman: Love the idea of Reinhart, but I think the center bias will take over, honestly. Otherwise, Jarvis should have a bit more support here. But the field actually feels open for a change.
Gentille: I didn’t pick Kopitar, and the Kings use him differently than they have in the past, but the road is a whole lot clearer for him to get a farewell gift.
Lazerus: Our staff is showing a lot of faith in the New York Rangers this season. Bold strategy, Cotton. And multiple votes for Mackenzie Blackwood? Did someone let Jesse vote twice?
Granger: No, or else Igor Shesterkin’s percentage would be even higher. He’s the best goalie on the planet, and I expect the Rangers to be better. Maybe not great, but better.
Goldman: Yep, I think he’s going to be lights-out this year and have one ounce more of support in New York, which will boost his traditional metrics enough for general managers to care.
Mirtle: I picked Blackwood! It’s goalies — you never know who will have a big year. Wolf would definitely be fun.
Gentille: Hellebuyck would have to lap the field to win another one.
Lazerus: I’d love to see the Mammoth have a breakout season and for André Tourigny to get some love. He’s done good work in some very strange situations and has been a much-needed rock for that franchise.
Mirtle: Dean Evason for me, assuming Columbus makes it in. But Sullivan makes a lot of sense, given that the Shesterkin-Vladislav Gavrikov factor could see their goals against really improve.
Goldman: I feel like the Jack Adams is operating on a year’s delay; otherwise, Spencer Carbery would have won in 2024, and Evanson would have taken home the trophy last year. So Evason’s my pick, but he could totally get snubbed for a newer hire, such as Glen Gulutzan or Sullivan.
Granger: I’m taking Rod Brind’Amour to become the first two-time winner since Barry Trotz back in 2019.
Gentille: Sullivan has never won the Jack Adams and is taking over an underachieving, still-talented team with an ultra-elite goaltender in the biggest media market on the continent. If he doesn’t win, I’ll be lightly surprised.
Lazerus: Yaroslav Askarov is the most interesting name here. If the Sharks are even mildly competitive this year, it’ll be because he’s bailing out that defense on a nightly basis. And with his style of play, he could be awfully fun to watch in that situation.
Mirtle: Pretty wide open this year, I feel like. Unless Ivan Demidov goes supernova, I could see someone unexpected win here.
Gentille: Everyone voted for Matvei Michkov last year, and he was indeed great, but things happen.
Granger: I don’t expect the Sharks to be good enough to give Askarov a chance, but I felt compelled to get his name on this list because he’s one of the most exciting goalie prospects in a while. His range of outcomes is incredibly wide, but his ceiling is something special.
Goldman: It would be pretty fun if we got the three-position split ballot again, and it feels like a legit possibility.
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