My Week 8 straight-up picks were 10-3. Let’s try to keep it going in Week 9.
I’m giving two picks for each game: One is which team I predict to win outright, the other is which team I predict will cover the point spread. Each pick has a confidence level of 1-10, with 10 being the most confident. For more information on the pick methodology, check out the Week 1 edition of this series.
Keep in mind that since the idea here is to make high-percentage plays, my picks tend to lean chalk-heavy. I am also very judicious in giving out higher confidence level scores.
If you want to see my confidence picks ranked 1-14 (pick to win), scroll to the table at the bottom.
Here is how my Week 8 picks fared, along with my current season record.
- Overall picks to win: 10-3 in Week 8 (82-38-1 for the season)
Picks to win with 1-5 confidence: 7-1 (53-29-1)
Picks to win with 6-10 confidence: 3-2 (29-9) - Overall to cover the spread: 6-7 (60-58-3)
Cover the spread picks with 1-5 confidence: 5-6 (51-48-2)
Cover the spread picks with 6-10 confidence: 1-1 (9-10-1)
All odds referenced are courtesy of BetMGM as of publish time.
Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) at Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are one of the toughest teams to gauge. They looked disinterested in a blowout loss to Cleveland in Week 7, then looked like world-beaters in a 34-10 win over Atlanta last week. Baltimore has been tough to gauge as well, in the absence of Lamar Jackson. That changes with Jackson returning to the lineup this week. With Jackson back under center, Baltimore can once again be relied upon even in a short-week road game.
- Pick to win: Baltimore (Confidence level: 6)
- Pick to cover the spread: Baltimore (Confidence level: 4)
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-8.5)
The Vikings have displayed a very limited formula for success this year. Minnesota is 2-0 when allowing 17 or fewer points and 1-4 when giving up 22 or more. The Lions are 5-0 when scoring 24 or more points versus 0-2 when scoring fewer than 24. Detroit has the offensive firepower to reach or exceed the 24-point mark. The Vikings have many offensive woes and thus aren’t suited to keep up in a scoreboard shootout.
- Pick to win: Detroit (CL: 7)
- Pick to cover the spread: Detroit (CL: 5)
Chicago Bears (-2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals’ defense is stunningly poor in many statistical areas. Cincinnati is the worst team in the league at covering tight ends and is just as bad at stopping planned rush plays. The Bengals have tried to make up for this by sending 42 targets in Ja’Marr Chase’s direction over the past two weeks, but all that did was turn those games into scoreboard shootouts. Because Chicago is 4-0 when scoring at least 25 points this year, I’ll take the Bears for the win and cover in what should be a high-scoring contest.
- Pick to win: Chicago (CL: 4)
- Pick to cover the spread: Chicago (CL: 3)
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (-13)
The Panthers were starting to make people believers after winning four out of five games. Last week’s 40-9 loss to Buffalo changed that perception. Green Bay has edges in many statistical categories, is the home team and has a roster that is much healthier than Carolina’s. I’ll take the Packers to win big.
- Pick to win: Green Bay (CL: 9)
- Pick to cover the spread: Green Bay (CL: 7)
Los Angeles Chargers (-9.5) at Tennessee Titans
No matter how much the Chargers throw the ball this year, never forget that Jim Harbaugh is still a “run the damn ball” coach. Los Angeles has rushed for at least 140 yards in four of the past five games and just set a season high with 207 ground yards last week. The Titans may be the worst rush defense in the NFL. That’s a combination that leans heavily in the Chargers’ favor even before factoring in edges in pass coverage, quarterback and receiving corps. The early Sunday afternoon kickoff is the only thing keeping my confidence levels from going even higher in favor of L.A.
- Pick to win: Los Angeles (CL: 7)
- Pick to cover the spread: Los Angeles (CL: 5)
Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots (-6)
Drake Maye is playing so well that he is now third in this week’s NFL MVP odds. The Patriots also have what might be the best run defense in the league. Atlanta has Bijan Robinson, who has MVP-caliber talent, but Michael Penix Jr. is a work in progress and is dealing with a knee injury, one of many injuries the Falcons are dealing with. New England is much healthier, is more consistent and is at home.
- Pick to win: New England (CL: 6)
- Pick to cover the spread: New England (CL: 4)
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at New York Giants
The 49ers just can’t seem to get healthy. Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall and starting center Jake Brendel are all trending to miss this game. San Francisco also has injuries to three starters and two backups in its defensive front seven. Even with those woes, the 49ers still rate better than New York in multiple categories, including a huge special teams advantage. The Giants also have to deal with the loss of budding star Cam Skattebo.
- Pick to win: San Francisco (CL: 4)
- Pick to cover the spread: San Francisco (CL: 3)
Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Colts have the best record in the NFL and just had a dominant win over a division rival. Pittsburgh has lost two straight while allowing 68 points in those contests. Those trends should lean towards Indianapolis being a big favorite. The Colts aren’t, because the stat analysis shows these two teams are playing at a similar level in many areas. One area where that isn’t the case is points scored. Indianapolis is on a four-game win streak with at least 31 points scored in each game. The Steelers have scored 31 points only once since Week 1.
- Pick to win: Indianapolis (CL: 3)
- Pick to cover the spread: Indianapolis (CL: 1)
Denver Broncos at Houston Texans (-1.5)
The Broncos have posted high-profile wins in the past two weeks. Houston has been more under the radar over the past month. The Texans generated dominant victories over Tennessee and Baltimore, gave a good showing in a tough road venue at Seattle and had a convincing win over San Francisco last week. That performance level and being at home are why Houston is considered a slight favorite, but Denver is still the better team. I’ll take the Broncos to win by a small margin.
- Pick to win: Denver (CL: 3)
- Pick to cover the spread: Denver (CL: 4)
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders
There may not be a more evenly matched game on the Week 9 board. The Jaguars grade out a lot better in passing offense, but the Raiders are the better team in terms of pass coverage. Las Vegas can also claim a notable advantage in special teams. Since the sum of these areas nets out to even, I’ll split the difference and pick a Jacksonville win but a Raiders cover.
- Pick to win: Jacksonville (CL: 1)
- Pick to cover the spread: Las Vegas (CL: 1)
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (-14)
This is the most lopsided point spread in the Week 9 slate and deservedly so. Los Angeles has a statistical edge in nearly every area, with the passing game being the biggest advantage. It doesn’t seem like a wise move for New Orleans to change starting quarterbacks before a road game against a very good Rams defense. The main concern is if Los Angeles takes this game too lightly. That probably won’t be the case because the Rams are coming out of a Week 8 bye. I’ll take Los Angeles to win and cover despite the two-touchdown spread.
- Pick to win: Los Angeles (CL: 9)
- Pick to cover the spread: Los Angeles (CL: 7)
Kansas City Chiefs (-2) at Buffalo Bills
The stakes for this game are as high as usual, but the game-deciding factors may be different. Kansas City’s passing game has been much better of late, but Buffalo may be able to offset that with a huge advantage in pass rushing. The Bills definitely have the better ground game, but the Chiefs’ rush defense could be the best in the NFL right now. Kansas City is a bit healthier, but Buffalo is the home team. With all of those canceling out, I’ll take Buffalo for the win because their special teams have been much better than the Chiefs’ in recent weeks.
- Pick to win: Buffalo (CL: 2)
- Pick to cover the spread: Buffalo (CL: 3)
Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) at Washington Commanders
Mike Macdonald is one of the best defensive play-callers in the entire football world. This is a big part of why Seattle has allowed fewer than 60 rushing yards in three straight games. The Seahawks are also getting superb play out of Sam Darnold and had a bye last week. Washington is on a short week after a Monday night road game against the Chiefs. The Commanders may get Jayden Daniels back, but they may also be without Terry McLaurin this week. I’ll take Seattle’s paths to victory here.
- Pick to win: Seattle (CL: 4)
- Pick to cover the spread: Seattle (CL: 3)
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)
This game will come down to whether or not Arizona can keep Dallas from turning this into a high-scoring contest. The Cowboys are 3-0-1 when scoring more than 27 points and 0-4 when scoring 27 or fewer points. The Cardinals’ defense is not playing at a level to hold the Dallas offense back, so Arizona will likely fail in that effort. The Cardinals’ offense doesn’t have the octane to keep up (even if Kyler Murray returns this week).
- Pick to win: Dallas (CL: 4)
- Pick to cover the spread: Dallas (CL: 3)
Source link
