The NFL season is just about at the halfway point, and as byes sweep across the league, Week 8 is the perfect time to cast off the anchors of early-season notions and sail forward into a new dawn. You are what your record says you are, after all, so looking at the state of the standings, here are three big questions for the second half.
Do the Pats have the Bills outflanked?
The New England Patriots did not fluke their way to the top of the AFC East, and their second-year quarterback has lifted his performance floor to that of a bona fide NFL starter. Drake Maye’s ceiling is that of a top-10 quarterback (maybe even top-five), and New England’s schedule is ripe for him to continue his ascent. Their next six games are: vs. Cleveland, vs. Atlanta, at Tampa Bay, vs. New York Jets, at Cincinnati and vs. New York Giants.
Based on what we’ve seen, that stretch looks a lot like 4-2 (maybe even 5-1), and gives the Patriots a real shot at not just leading the division, but controlling it when they head into their bye week. They’ve already done the hard part and beat the Buffalo Bills on the road, and if they get to eight wins before the rematch, they’re sitting pretty. Nine would make the East theirs to lose. Better still, they will be at home and coming off a rest week for that critical game, while Buffalo will be playing their third road contest in four weeks. We knew the Bills’ division reign wouldn’t go unchallenged forever, but New England may have caught them (and everyone else) off guard and outpositioned them for the throne this season.
Can Baltimore be near perfect?
Lamar Jackson is officially out for Week 8’s game, and the Baltimore Ravens’ margin of error was already down to zero. Baltimore lucked into a deeply flawed division, currently led by a Pittsburgh Steelers team that plays to the level of its competition, but their Super Bowl odds are currently +2500, and they have three losses left to give at most. Baltimore is still favored against Chicago on Sunday, but without their franchise quarterback, it’s hard to feel confident. Coming up, their games at Minnesota with J.J. McCarthy back in Week 10, against New England in Week 16 and at Green Bay in Week 17 could be tricky. They need to win all five remaining division games, which leaves the Dolphins, Jets and Bears as the only games not accounted for. Baltimore will be favored in all three, but if they dump any of them, that feels like a wrap on 2025.
We could know soon.
Is the NFC going to figure things out?
Ask for a show of hands if someone can identify the NFC’s best team with any certainty, and you’ll get a room full of full pockets. The current favorite is Detroit (+340), which just knocked off the conference’s best team with ease and continues to flex terrifying offensive muscle. Tampa Bay had cemented itself as the league’s most entertaining programming, but the recent pratfall knocked its NFC Championship odds down to +1200, sandwiched between San Francisco and Seattle.
The NFC West is a three-team traffic jam, and while the Lions seem on a trajectory to control the North, the Packers (+425) are scraping their bumper in the odds, and the Minnesota Vikings will get their quarterback back eventually. In the East, the Philadelphia Eagles have had one divisional contest where their offense looked dominant, and they still only won by four points. They’re behind the Packers at +500 on the odds board.
Ironically, despite the recent drubbing, the Bucs might still have the easiest route, at 5-2 in the dismal South. The next four weeks offer divisional matchups, but to this point, those have only further muddied the waters. It’s possible that the conference is too deep (or too flawed) to allow an alpha to emerge.
📺What to watch📺
Bye: Cardinals, Lions, Jaguars, Raiders, Rams, Seahawks
Giants at Eagles
If a couple of Week 7 plays had broken differently, this would have been the matchup of the week. As it stands, the Eagles get to revenge-host New York after finally finding their fangs, and the rookie-led Giants arrive in Philly after a truly historic collapse (99.3 percent win probability with 6:38 to go in the fourth quarter). But the Giants have built themselves in Philadelphia’s 2024 image, and with Jaxson Dart at the wheel, quickly established an identity as a team willing to barrel headlong into any opponent and keep smashing into them until the clock hits zero.
Nothing breaks a funk like full-contact; something Cam Skattebo no doubt has tattooed somewhere on his body.
The rookie running back operates like a hyperviolent Roomba, crashing into anything and everything until he gets where he’s going or his batteries run out. That’s led to him accounting for nearly a quarter of New York’s scrimmage yards, and already proved to be problematic for the Philly defense.
But the Eagles just showcased their new under-center play-action attack, and Jalen Hurts’ ability to improvise and hit downfield plays out of structure is still top-notch. The Giants’ pass defense is a weak point, though they won’t have to face A.J. Brown, who is out this week (hamstring).
New York may have the impetuosity of youth on their side, but this is the first time it’ll play an opponent who has seen their attack up close before. They may show up looking for a brawl and find themselves in a boxing match, and it’s unlikely they’ll be able to drag the Eagles into the alleyway a second time.
Packers at Steelers
Why does it have to be this hard, Green Bay? The Packers are unanimously considered a playoff team, and statistically appear to be beyond reproach. Yet they haven’t had a stress-free game since Week 2, even though they’ve played Cleveland, Dallas, Cincinnati and Arizona. None of those teams has a winning record.
The Packers’ problem is that they swing a sledgehammer better than just about anyone else, but never bothered to buy any other tools. If you want to understand the Packer Experience in 2025, watch their third downs. They lead the league in third-down conversion rate, but peek a little closer and you’ll notice why. On third and long (seven or more yards), they are the best in the NFL by a mile, converting a blistering 48 percent of the time. On third and less than seven yards, they are 24th. Jordan Love’s passer rating is 130-plus on third and long, 66.9 on third and short and 44.4 on third and medium.
If it’s a sledgehammer-type problem, they have a solution. If it’s a flyswatter-type problem, they have a sledgehammer. They need to start getting rid of house pests without doing so much damage to the house in the process.
The Steelers are atop the rickety Jenga tower of the AFC North for the moment, and have a resume that means they must be taken seriously until proven otherwise. But to be regarded as a contender, they need to beat a fully-armed and operational opponent, which Green Bay is, warts and all.
This is a prove-it game in primetime for both teams, where Pittsburgh needs to show they can go punch for punch with someone above their current weight class, and the Packers (road favorites) need to keep someone on the mat once they knock them down.
Commanders at Chiefs
This is what regression looks like. For the Kansas City Chiefs, it’s positive regression back to their terrifying offensive mean, and for the Washington Commanders, it’s reality come knocking.
Washington is still a very good team, and we are in the early days of Jayden Daniels’ sure-to-be awesome career, but last year’s soft schedule and six of their 12 wins coming on the game’s final play masked the flaws present at this stage of their build. This is what it looks like when injuries bite at the wrong time.
Unfortunately for the Commanders, this dip — and the temporary loss of Daniels to injury — coincides with the moment they need to play their best football of the season. The Chiefs look like the best team in the league currently (playing the Raiders will do that), and have spent all of one game with their full complement of weapons. No disrespect to the Colts, but Kansas City appears to be all the way back to championship form on both sides of the ball.
If Washington goes into Arrowhead and loses (and a 12.5-point spread in KC’s favor says they will), they will be 3-5 and have to face Seattle and Detroit the next two games. They get Miami after that and then a bye, but when they return in Week 13, their schedule is a gauntlet all the way to the end. They simply cannot carry seven losses into the final six weeks and hope to have any shot at the postseason. It may be Week 8, but it’s do-or-die time for the Commanders.
Bears at Ravens
The draw here is simple: The Ravens are fighting for their life, and the Chicago Bears are fighting for legitimacy. Chicago beating Baltimore, even in their weakened state, would be massive for the Baby Bears. Scuffs and bruises or not, 5-2 is 5-2, and road wins over the Commanders and Ravens in the first half of the season sure would look nice on Ben Johnson’s new mantle.
Baltimore knows the score from here on out, so Chicago should expect absolute hell from Derrick Henry and the Ravens, and also a tougher test from what was the worst secondary in the NFL. New arrival Alohi Gilman helps shore up safety, and Chidobe Awuzie and Roquan Smith are expected to be back from injury, making Baltimore much more formidable. Without Jackson, this isn’t the true test of where the Bears stand that it could’ve been, but it would still be a nice step.
Staff picks for every Week 8 game
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