My Week 7 picks went 20-10 overall and included correct upset picks of the Colts over the Chargers and the Cowboys over the Commanders. Here are my Week 8 picks.
I’m giving two picks for each game: One is which team I predict to win outright, the other is which team I predict will cover the point spread. Each pick has a confidence level of 1-10, with 10 being the most confident. For more information on the pick methodology, check out the Week 1 edition of this series.
Keep in mind that since the idea here is to make high-percentage plays, my picks tend to lean chalk-heavy. I am also very judicious in giving out higher confidence level scores.
If you want to see my confidence picks ranked 1-13 (pick to win), scroll to the table at the bottom.
Here is how my Week 7 picks fared, along with my current season record.
- Overall picks to win: 12-3 in Week 7 (72-35-1 for the season)
Picks to win with 1-5 confidence: 9-2 (46-28-1)
Picks to win with 6-10 confidence: 3-1 (26-7) - Overall to cover the spread: 8-7 (54-51-3)
Cover the spread picks with 1-5 confidence: 6-6 (46-42-2)
Cover the spread picks with 6-10 confidence: 2-1 (8-9-1)
Now let’s get into the Week 8 selections.
All odds referenced are courtesy of BetMGM as of publish time.
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5)
The two primary reasons that the Vikings lost last week are that the Eagles challenged their secondary on vertical passes and that Carson Wentz made too many mistakes. The Chargers lost to the Colts last week because they just can’t seem to get healthy. That may change this week with the potential return of offensive tackles Joe Alt and Trey Pipkins. Getting those two back would allow Los Angeles to go after the Minnesota secondary. Jesse Minter’s defense should be able to bait Wentz into some mistakes. It’s a formula that leads to my picking the Chargers to win and cover.
- Pick to win: Los Angeles (Confidence level: 3)
- Pick to cover the spread: Los Angeles (Confidence level: 2)
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-7)
This game looks very close on paper. Cam Skattebo gives the Giants a notable edge versus a struggling Saquon Barkley. New York is much better on special teams. The Giants also match up well in numerous other areas. The Eagles have the better secondary and displayed a much better passing game last week. Those areas all add up to a roughly equal matchup, but New York has the albatross of last week’s excruciating loss at Denver. That type of loss typically has a carryover. The Eagles will also be fired up to avenge the loss at New York two weeks ago. Those are enough to push my win and cover picks in the Philadelphia column.
- Pick to win: Philadelphia (CL: 5)
- Pick to cover: Philadelphia (CL: 3)
Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons (-7)
The Falcons have a lot more talent than their 3-3 record indicates. Bijan Robinson is playing at an Offensive Player of the Year level. Drake London is turning into a true workhorse wideout. The Falcons’ defense is superb versus long passes and pressures quarterbacks at a very high rate. Miami does a lot of things well, too, but last week showed that this club just may not believe in what its head coach is selling. That allowed a lesser-talented Cleveland team to post a dominant win. This more talented Atlanta club should do the same, so I’m picking them to win and cover.
- Pick to win: Atlanta (CL: 7)
- Pick to cover: Atlanta (CL: 5)
New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5)
Last week illustrated why Mike Tomlin was understandably upset that the Browns traded Joe Flacco to another AFC North club. Flacco should be able to post another superb passing total versus a Jets defense that might have the worst pass rush in the NFL. Cincinnati has more than its share of defensive issues. Those issues won’t be tested much by a New York offense that will now be piloted by Tyrod Taylor and likely won’t have Garrett Wilson. Those are more than enough reasons to send my picks in the Bengals’ direction.
- Pick to win: Cincinnati (CL: 6)
- Pick to cover: Cincinnati (CL: 4)
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots (-7)
Drake Maye is on the verge of being one of the leaders in the NFL MVP odds. He has a dual-threat skill set that brings to mind Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. Mike Vrabel has combined that with the winning blueprint he used in Tennessee to craft a team that rates solid or better in nearly every category. Cleveland lacks talent yet was able to push past a dispirited Miami team last week. But since the Patriots are talented and anything but dispirited, I’ll take New England for the win and the cover.
- Pick to win: New England (CL: 7)
- Pick to cover: New England (CL: 5)
Buffalo Bills (-7.5) at Carolina Panthers
One of the keys to this game will be how these teams fare at stopping the ground game. Carolina has been one of the best in the NFL in this area over the past month. Buffalo is the flip side of that coin, with some of the worst rush defense metrics since Week 4. That disparity should allow the Panthers to keep this game closer than expected. It’s why Carolina gets my cover pick, but Allen’s presence lands my pick to win in the Buffalo column.
- Pick to win: Buffalo (CL: 3)
- Pick to cover: Carolina (CL: 2)
Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
This is a tough pick that starts with a caveat. As this is being written, it looks like Lamar Jackson will be returning to the Ravens lineup this week. Even if he does return, the Ravens have all manner of issues on both sides of the ball, both physically and mentally. The Week 7 bye helped this team get healthy, but Baltimore’s issues may run deeper than that. Chicago can run the ball about as well as any team right now. That should turn this game into a ground-based slugfest. In that scenario, I’ll pick the Ravens for a close win and the Bears for a close cover. If Jackson is out, my pick changes to Chicago for both the win and the cover.
- Pick to win (if Jackson plays): Baltimore (CL: 3)
- Pick to win (if Jackson is out): Chicago (CL: 2)
- Pick to cover (if Jackson plays): Chicago (CL: 2)
- Pick to cover (if Jackson is out): Chicago (CL: 6)
San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans (-1.5)
Kyle Shanahan deserves some serious Coach of the Year consideration. He’s been able to guide the 49ers to a 5-2 record versus some tough competition despite San Francisco dealing with myriad injuries. That could be the case again this week since Brock Purdy and Ricky Pearsall are both questionable to play. Shanahan should get an improved performance from George Kittle. Houston is talented and gritty enough to keep this game close and has multiple paths to victory. I’ll end up splitting the difference here and picking the Texans to win, but the 49ers to cover.
- Pick to win: Houston (CL: 2)
- Pick to cover: San Francisco (CL: 1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) at New Orleans Saints
Tampa Bay’s wide receiver injuries finally caught up to them in the Monday night game at Detroit. With Mike Evans now out for most of the season, Baker Mayfield’s wide receiver corps consists of impact rookie Emeka Egbuka, Tez Johnson and Sterling Shepard. Rachaad White has been a step down from Bucky Irving. New Orleans is a much healthier team, but the Saints’ offense has a lower ceiling with Spencer Rattler. That’s why I’ll pick Tampa Bay to win, but New Orleans to get the cover.
- Pick to win: Tampa Bay (CL: 3)
- Pick to cover: New Orleans (CL: 2)
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-14)
The Colts do seem to get rattled when playing Jacksonville and Houston, but those AFC South jitters don’t carry over to Tennessee. Indianapolis has won five straight against the Titans, including a 41-20 road victory back in Week 3. Shane Steichen’s club hasn’t taken its foot off the gas at any point this year. This game will be no different. I’ll take the Colts to win and cover despite the 14-point spread.
- Pick to win: Indianapolis (CL: 9)
- Pick to cover: Indianapolis (CL: 7)
Dallas Cowboys at Denver Broncos (-3)
The problem for the Cowboys is that their season splits along a high-scoring line. Dallas is 3-0-1 when scoring 37 or more points, but 0-3 when they post fewer than 37 points. That is a limited path to victory versus a Broncos squad that has allowed 23 or fewer points on five occasions and 17 or fewer points in four games. It precludes the Cowboys’ ability to win without getting into a scoreboard shootout. Since a shootout isn’t likely, I’ll pick Denver to win and to cover.
- Pick to win: Denver (CL: 4)
- Pick to cover: Denver (CL: 2)
Green Bay Packers (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers
This is an incredibly even matchup. Green Bay has an edge in rushing production. Pittsburgh claims an advantage in pass blocking and pass rush. Aaron Rodgers will be fired up to get a win versus his former team. Matt LaFleur is an expert at getting his team to perform at a high level, no matter the circumstance. In an even case like this, I’ll pick the Packers to win but the Steelers to cover.
- Pick to win: Green Bay (CL: 2)
- Pick to cover: Pittsburgh (CL: 2)
Washington Commanders at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5)
The point spread for this game has bounced around based on the latest injury status of Jayden Daniels. At the time of publication, it looks like Daniels will play. That’s a big plus, but Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin are both injury question marks. Patrick Mahomes has returned to his elite production level, and Kansas City’s defense has returned to its elite form of late. That’s a powerful combination that holds up regardless of who is playing for Washington. It’s enough to generate a win and cover for Kansas City.
- Pick to win: Kansas City (CL: 6)
- Pick to cover: Kansas City (CL: 3)
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