The Philadelphia Eagles defend their Super Bowl title against the Dallas Cowboys to kick off the 2025 NFL regular season, and that means we get to start up the NFL Projection Model to fire off some best bets. I couldn’t be more excited because this offseason dragged on, but with a Thursday and Friday night game, we get two real NFL games before the first NFL Sunday.
I don’t have a side or total in either of the games as it stands right now, but I have a teaser leg on the Thursday night game and will possibly be adding a play in the Friday night game that involves Taylor Swift’s fiancé Travis Kelce, as his Kansas City Chiefs take on the Los Angeles Chargers in Brazil.
If you’re unfamiliar with my work, I have developed an NFL Projection Model that takes in play-by-play data to create projections for each team in the NFL. These projections are adjusted for opponent and garbage time before spitting out an expected points per game for the offense and defense. From there, I’m able to plug these values into the model and get an expected spread and total for each game of the NFL season.
Last season’s record: 33-34-4, -3.35 units, -4.4% ROI
Record since 2021: 143-135-8, -2.56 units, -0.8% ROI
Four bets to kick off the regular season. We have one bet that I’m fading an injury, another that I’m plugging my nose because the thought of it makes me want to puke and two others that I can get behind. Either way, let’s win some bets this week.
As always, shop around for the best price and good luck!
NFL Week 1 best bets
New York Giants at Washington Commanders under 45.5 (-105)
If you don’t watch college football, you’ll want to keep an eye on Abdul Carter for the Giants because he will be one of the more versatile pass rushers in the league this year. There probably isn’t a defensive line that I’m more excited to watch this year than the Giants. The combination of Carter, Dexter Lawrence and Brian Burns is about as good as it gets in the league this year. Unfortunately, the offense doesn’t inspire me too much. If the defensive line can contain Jayden Daniels and this Commanders offense, this could be a surprisingly low-scoring game.
Worst price to bet: Under 45 (-110)
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns under 48 (-110)
I know, I know, betting an under involving the Bengals seems like an easy loser. And while I do think the Bengals defense is going to be poor this season, defense is hard to project year to year, so I don’t think it’s crazy to think they could improve this season. The bar isn’t very high, folks. Anyway, the Browns don’t exactly have the offense that gets me excited to move the ball up and down the field against this defense. We are kicking off the season with a hold your nose bet, but sometimes that’s how it goes.
Worst price to bet: Under 47.5 (-110)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks over 43.5 (-105)
Playing an over with a team that is banged up at wide receiver and another with a defense that I’m slightly bullish on makes me a bit nervous, but the numbers are what they are. Christian McCaffrey should transform this 49ers offense back into what we saw in 2023, which trumps my concerns from the first sentence of this breakdown. If Sam Darnold can continue even a sliver of the production from last year in Minnesota, this game goes over with ease.
Worst price to bet: Over 43.5 (-110)
Houston Texans +3 (-110) at Los Angeles Rams
This is purely a fading Matthew Stafford’s back injury bet. It’s not that I don’t think he’s healthy, I’m assuming he’s good to go. It’s more that I believe there will be some rust after missing so much time during training camp, and then getting thrown to the wolves against one of the better defenses in the NFL. That’s it, that’s the analysis. If there was no concern about Stafford’s back or he didn’t miss time, I’d probably pass here, but I’m betting on some rust. Side note, I did think about the under here but passed — for now.
Worst price to bet: Texans +3 (-110)
Week 1 teaser
Eagles -2.5 vs. Cowboys/Broncos -2.5 vs. Titans (-120)
(Photo of Matthew Stafford: Harry How / Getty Images)
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