The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks for Sunday’s and Monday’s NFL Week 9 slate.
Sunday
49ers (-2.5) over GIANTS
I’d love to see this matchup with both teams at full tilt. But neither team is near full strength thanks to injuries they will need to work around.
That might not be possible for Big Blue, though.
The Giants are allowing a terrible 5.7 yards per carry this season, the worst mark in the NFL by far.
Christian McCaffrey will run wild on Shane Bowen’s putridly schemed defense that is rated No. 32 against the run in DVOA, as well.
LIONS (-8.5) over Vikings
J.J. McCarthy is back at quarterback, and that smells like turnovers to me.
Detroit has the No. 1 defense per DVOA, and while the Vikings are typically known for a strong unit on that side of the ball, the stats do not back that up. Minnesota ranks 20th in defense per DVOA. It’s a middle-of-the-pack defense against one of the top rushing offenses.
I’ll take Detroit to eat the Vikings’ lunch Sunday, and my model has the projected score at 30.86 to 18.86 in favor of the Lions.
Bears (-2.5) over BENGALS
Sounds like Joe Flacco (shoulder) is a go for the Bengals.
These two teams are headed for a shootout on Sunday. I’ve faded the Bengals a good bit this year, and it’s been fruitful — they are 3-5 against the spread (ATS).
The defense for the Bengals might just be the worst we’ve seen in some time, and it’s only getting worse. Trey Hendrickson appears to be on the outside looking in as far as playing this week.
I think Chicago rolls over the league’s worst defense, per DVOA.
Panthers (+13.5) over PACKERS
Carolina is bad, but not this bad. The Panthers come in on Sunday with Bryce Young back for Carolina and a roster that isn’t quite as bad as you might think.
Carolina’s defense ranks 17th in DVOA and Young’s return should help cover up offensive deficiencies that really cloud our vision of this team.
The Panthers are also 10th in yards per carry on offense, which could help them stave off the Packers’ vaunted pass rush.
Chargers (-9.5) over TITANS
My model has this spread at 13, so, yes, I will continue to fade the Titans this week.
It goes without saying but the Titans are a complete disaster, while the Chargers have a mini-bye week to get right in Tennessee. The return of tackle Joe Alt should help the Chargers smash the Titans in this one.
PATRIOTS (-5.5) over Falcons
This is a bad matchup for Atlanta. The Patriots are elite against the run, allowing just 3.5 yards per carry, the second-best mark in the NFL.
The Falcons offense isn’t built out enough from a passing perspective to take advantage of the Patriots’ 28th-ranked pass defense. New England continues to roll against the Falcons.
STEELERS (+3) over Colts
The Colts are excellent, but I’ll take Aaron Rodgers to roast the Indianapolis defense Sunday. Mike Tomlin’s defense can’t possibly get much worse. I’d expect them to improve at least a little bit this season. Tomlin as an underdog of three or more is 40-21-3 ATS (65.6 percent, most profitable coach of all time).
He is also 11-2-3 at home ATS (84.6 percent) when an underdog of three or more points, according to data from Action Network. I think the Steelers upset the Colts, who have been riding way sky high.
TEXANS (-1.5) over Broncos
Denver losing Patrick Surtain II is a big problem. The Houston Texans are beginning to show the talent we expected to see at the start of last season when they were a trendy Super Bowl bet.
Houston is one of my favorite bets of the week against the spread. Their defensive line, which ranks sixth in pass-rush win rate, gives Bo Nix and the Broncos a fit in this win for Houston.
RAIDERS (+3) over Jaguars
Brock Bowers returns for the Raiders this week and should be ready to rock the Jaguars on Sunday. The Raiders’ defense is sneaky underrated as the No. 13 overall unit, per DVOA.
The issue has been the offense (No. 30 per DVOA), but with Bowers back and healthy for the first time all year, this should be a totally different team this week. Raiders win.
RAMS (-14) over Saints
Probably won’t watch more than a few minutes of this one, but the Rams are an excellent team when front-running. Between Puka Nacua back in the fold and the Kyren Williams/Blake Corum tandem making waves in New Orleans.
Rookie quarterbacks making their first start after a loss are 77-92-2 ATS (45 percent) in their last 172 starts per VSIN. The Rams win easy, as Tyler Slough has trouble getting started against a tough pass rush.
Betting on the NFL?
BILLS (+2) over Chiefs
The Bills haven’t lost at home straight-up or ATS as an underdog since Oct. 19, 2020. In the regular season, the Bills are 4-0 ATS against the Chiefs, but the playoffs are a completely different story.
Buffalo’s defense is bad, but their ability to control time of possession (best in the league) is the asset that carries them to victory on Sunday night.
COMMANDERS (+3) over Seahawks
A desperate Commanders squad gets Jayden Daniels back under center this week. The Seahawks -3 is too rich for me in this spot, where Washington basically needs to win to keep its season alive.
The Commanders are actually rated No. 11 in DVOA and have been without Daniels for long stretches. With Daniels back and listed as fully healthy, I like the Commanders to snag a win.
Monday
Cardinals (+2.5) over COWBOYS
Jacoby Brissett will be out there for the Cardinals, which is still a decent development for Arizona.
Kyler Murray is far from my favorite quarterback in the NFL, and the Cowboys’ defense seemingly makes everyone look good. In terms of team DVOA, the Cardinals are No. 18 in DVOA compared to No. 20 for the Cowboys.
Last week: 9-3
Season: 52-59.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
Source link
