The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks for Sunday’s and Monday’s NFL Week 12 slate.
Sunday
LIONS -10.5 vs. Giants
In Weeks 11-15 since 2015, favorites of more than 10 points are 45-36 against the spread (ATS). Teams that I think are getting worse are my target here. Generally, to this point, we know what teams are this late in the season. Detroit loves blowing teams out, particularly ones that can’t stop the run.
Big Blue is rated No. 32 in the NFL against the run. The Giants’ defense quits this weekend, and Shane Bowen might get chopped early.
Jets +13.5 over RAVENS
No reason for the Jets to be this big of an underdog with an upgrade at quarterback coming in this week. That’s right, Justin Fields is a disaster and Tyrod Taylor should be able to run a fair bit against the Ravens. My model likes Gang Green here. Projected score: Ravens 27.86 | Jets 18.98.
PACKERS -6.5 over Vikings
Trusting the betting model this week as the Packers take on the Vikings at home. Green Bay may be without some contributors this week, namely Josh Jacobs, but that won’t stop me one bit.
Green Bay is still a top DVOA team (No. 6), and while its struggled in spots this year, I think the Packers are a good buy-low candidate with a ferocious pass rush. My model has the projected score of this one at 24.92 to 15.28. J.J. McCarthy gets swallowed.
Bears -2.5 over Steelers
Aaron Rodgers looked old before he hurt his wrist. I’d suspect that things only get worse for the Steelers quarterback this weekend. The Bears, who are surely fraudulent with their 7-3 record, are at least competent enough on offense to get this one done. DVOA disagrees, but I’m taking Chicago here with a projected score of 28.67 to 23.09.
Patriots -6 over BENGALS
Joe Burrow or not, the Bengals’ defense is still the worst in the NFL. New England is another slightly overrated squad, with the No. 27-ranked pass defense in DVOA. This could be a shootout if Burrow suits up, and a blowout is well within the realm of possibility regardless.
Drake Maye torches the sorry Cincinnati defense, as Burrow is usually a slow starter to start the season, even if he does play. However, If the line gets to nine with backup QB Joe Flacco by gametime, I’m with a dart throw on the Bengals.
(Editor’s note: Burrow will not be activated for the game)
TITANS +13 over Seahawks
Going against the trend I pointed out ahead of Lions-Giants. The total for this game is 39.5 with the spread at 13, which is rare. Covering a massive spread with this low of a total is pretty difficult to do all things considered.
Seattle has made a living on beating up on bad teams this year, particularly at home, but I think Tennessee covers here. My model says the spread is dead on, but I’ll take the Titans off a decent performance against the Texans (who just ate the Bills alive) to keep this one a little closer.
CHIEFS -3.5 over Colts
I trusted the Chiefs last week despite my model begging me to take Denver: big mistake and bad job by me. If last week was a must-win, this is a mega must-win.
Travis Kelce peaked out last week with eight catches and a touchdown, and I suspect Kansas City throws the kitchen sink at the Colts this week. Fading my model again. My projected score for the game is 25.15 to 25.72 in favor of the Chiefs. Old habits die hard. I trust the Chiefs over Daniel Jones and the Colts.
Betting on the NFL?
RAIDERS -4 over Browns
It’s within the realm of possibility that Shedeur Sanders is the worst quarterback in the NFL. He sure looked like that last week.
Las Vegas’ defense is sneaky good, despite looking lost last week against the Cowboys. The Raiders win easily.
CARDINALS +3 over Jaguars
Arizona looks better on offense without Marvin Harrison Jr. I’ll back them to cover and perhaps win against Trevor Lawrence this weekend.
The Cardinals’ offense is what’s holding this squad back but they’re a top 10 defense in terms of DVOA. No Brian Thomas Jr. or Travis Huntner is a bad spot for the Jaguars. I’ll take Arizona here with the field goal.
COWBOYS +3 over Eagles
The home team has won 12 of the last 14 games in this NFC East matchup. The Eagles can lose to any team in the league, and they can also beat every single one. The defense is elite in Philadelphia, but the Cowboys’ offense also looks like a juggernaut in its own right.
Dallas’ defense has improved with the trade of Quinnen Williams, so perhaps they’re no longer the worst unit in the NFC. The Eagles’ roster is also severely injured, missing Lane Johnson, which will hurt an already struggling offense.
Falcons +2 over SAINTS
Let’s not overreact to Kirk Cousins starting over Michael Penix. Penix has been terrible for most of the season, and while Cousins has looked bad in mop-up duty, the Saints are among the worst teams in the NFL. Atlanta was all-in on this season coming into the year.
Drake London being out should not signal that the sky is falling for the Falcons. Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts lead the way to an Atlanta win.
RAMS -6.5 over Buccaneers
I liked the Bills -6 last week and think that the Rams are the rightful Super Bowl favorites who will beat down the Buccaneers this week.
Baker Mayfield is 2-11 straight up in night games, for those interested in that kind of trend. Los Angeles is below the key number of seven. Sean McVay knows Mayfield well, and that defense will shut him down.
MONDAY
PANTHERS +7 over 49ers
The Panthers aren’t a terrible team; I’ve been on them all year. I had them against the spread and even said that they were live underdogs to win against the Packers as 14-point underdogs. My model loves them in this spot too, with a projected score of 24.09 to 26.98.
Rico Dowdle keeps this one air-tight and maybe even helps Carolina pull the upset.
Last week: 7-6-1
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
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