Every new NFL season brings renewed hope — even for teams that missed the playoffs the year before.
History shows why.
Over the last 12 seasons, the NFL has seen an average of nearly six — 5.75 to be exact — new teams reach the postseason. The 2024 season was an outlier, with only four newcomers. But in six of the previous eight years, six or more fresh faces made the field.
Last season’s failure doesn’t erase this season’s chance.
2013 (5): Carolina Panthers, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, New Orleans Saints
2014 (5): Pittsburgh Steelers, Dallas Cowboys, Baltimore Ravens, Arizona Cardinals, Detroit Lions
2015 (3): Minnesota Vikings, Washington, Kansas City Chiefs
2016 (6): Dallas Cowboys, Atlanta Falcons, New York Giants, Oakland Raiders, Miami Dolphins, New York Giants
2017 (7): Philadelphia Eagles, Jacksonville Jaguars, Minnesota Vikings, Los Angeles Rams, New Orleans Saints, Tennessee Titans, Carolina Panthers, Buffalo Bills
2018 (7): Houston Texans, Chicago Bears, Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Chargers, Seattle Seahawks, Indianapolis Colts
2019 (5): San Francisco 49ers, Green Bay Packers, Buffalo Bills, Tennessee Titans, Minnesota Vikings
2020 (5): Washington Football Team, Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Rams, Indianapolis Colts, Chicago Bears
2021 (7): Dallas Cowboys, Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Rams, Las Vegas Raiders, Arizona Cardinals, New England Patriots, San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles
2022 (7): Minnesota Vikings, Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Chargers, Baltimore Ravens, New York Giants, Seattle Seahawks, Miami Dolphins
2023 (6): Houston Texans, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Rams, Green Bay Packers
2024 (4): Los Angeles Chargers, Denver Broncos, Minnesota Vikings, Washington Commanders
Some notes to consider as we ponder which teams will end their playoff droughts this season:
Divisions make a difference: Not all divisions offer the same path to the playoffs. Take the NFC East — there hasn’t been a repeat division champion since the Eagles strung together four straight from 2001 through 2004. Compare that to the AFC South, where the Texans have claimed back-to-back division crowns three times in the past decade.
Schedule strength plays a role, too: Over the past eight seasons, the team saddled with the league’s toughest schedule has usually stumbled — six of the last eight missed the playoffs. That’s not great news for the New York Giants, owners of this year’s toughest schedule, as Brian Daboll tries to rebound his team from last year’s ugly 3-14 campaign.
An easy schedule doesn’t equal a playoff ticket: The San Francisco 49ers enter 2025 with the league’s softest slate, but history says that’s no guarantee. Just last year, the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons shared the easiest schedule, and both stayed home in January. The Saints also had the league’s lightest path in 2023, yet missed out.
Dead money isn’t always bad: Dead money (cap space allocated to players no longer on the roster) often carries a negative connotation. But of the 10 teams with the most dead money last season, six of them made the playoffs (Denver Broncos, Minnesota Vikings, Buffalo Bills, Green Bay Packers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Super Bowl-winning Philadelphia Eagles).
Who could get back to the playoffs in 2025?
According to the projection model from The Athletic’s Austin Mock, these are the six non-playoff teams from 2024 who have the highest probability of reaching the postseason this year. Our writers share thoughts on the chances of each team to pull it off.
Mock’s 2025 teams poised to bounce back
*Strength of schedule
49ers: 73.3 percent
Running back Christian McCaffrey and a fourth-place schedule. Those are the biggest reasons the 49ers could make a worst-to-first turnaround. McCaffrey, who at this time last year was plagued by Achilles tendonitis, has been healthy throughout the spring and summer and resembles his 2023 self. The 49ers’ red-zone scoring issues last season were undoubtedly related to McCaffrey being limited to four games. After all, he scored 21 touchdowns in 2023. With Brian Robinson Jr. now part of the running back rotation, San Francisco’s ground game ought to be back at full throttle.
Meanwhile, the 49ers don’t have a daunting schedule. While six of their first nine games are on the road, the slate of opposing quarterbacks (at this point at least) includes Spencer Rattler, Daniel Jones, Russell Wilson, Joe Flacco and Michael Penix Jr. That is, the 49ers ought to be able to hang around in the playoff hunt during the first half of the season, then take advantage of an abundance of home games — and their bye — in the back half. — Matt Barrows
Bengals: 71 percent
Well, this doesn’t need to be complicated. When you have Joe Burrow, you should be in the playoffs. When you have Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins with him, it should be a lock. It wasn’t last year, of course, but that took a historically bad defense and an unreal run of heartbreaking, one-score losses. New defensive coordinator Al Golden could rejuvenate the defense merely by bringing a clean slate. There’s continuity everywhere for an offense that could easily end up being the best in football. Roster depth, pass rush, betting on unproven young players defensively and banking on health for their stars still stand in the way, but you should always be confident betting on Burrow. — Paul Dehner
Cardinals: 40.6 percent
Since general manager Monti Ossenfort and coach Jonathan Gannon arrived in Arizona in 2023, the Cardinals have steadily rebuilt their roster. They were patient and didn’t overpay during free agency. They drafted well. Four wins in Year 1 turned into eight in Year 2. This season, they line up well on both sides. Ossenfort upgraded the defense, adding edge rusher Josh Sweat and defensive linemen Calais Campbell and Dalvin Tomlinson. The offense should be boosted by an improved Marvin Harrison Jr., who approaches his second season.
Perhaps best of all: The schedule isn’t bad. The Cardinals should get off to a quick start, and if they can avoid a second-half letdown, their first postseason appearance since 2021 will be within reach. — Doug Haller
Patriots: 39.1 percent
The main reason the Patriots have an outside chance of reaching the playoffs is that their schedule is easy. Only the Saints and 49ers have an easier schedule. But there’s also hope for New England because of the way they’ve turned their starting lineup around, now featuring 13 new starters among their 22 projected. They still lack depth, but the starting units are in respectable shape. And then there’s the hope that comes with Drake Maye in Year 2 and the belief that follows Mike Vrabel after he yielded a winning season in each of his first four years with the Tennessee Titans. Maye doesn’t have a lot of weapons, but if he takes a meaningful step forward, there’s no reason the Pats can’t sneak in as a wild-card team. — Chad Graff
Falcons: 38.2 percent
If the Falcons make the playoffs, it will be because of their offense.
Atlanta finished sixth in yards per game (369.8) and 12th in offensive EPA per play (.04) last season despite a disastrous five-game stretch from Kirk Cousins. With Michael Penix Jr. now at quarterback, the Falcons believe their offense will be more explosive. Running back Bijan Robinson has the fifth-best betting odds to be named Offensive Player of the Year this season, and fourth-year wide receiver Drake London appears to be on the verge of a leap that could see him challenge for this year’s receiving yards crown. If a defense with three new pass rushers (Leonard Floyd, Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr.) can create some havoc plays, Atlanta has a chance. — Josh Kendall
Seahawks: 37 percent
It is unwise to use the Seahawks’ 10-win season in 2024 as the primary source of optimism that Seattle will be a playoff team in 2025. The past is not always predictive in that way. The present is more relevant. And, currently, the NFC West is wide open. The Los Angeles Rams are the defending champs, but they are not significantly superior to Seattle or any other team in the division. The 49ers have a lot of talent, but a great deal of it is currently stuck in the training room. Arizona is an enigma. There’s an obvious path to the Seahawks fielding the division’s best defense and at least an average offense, which may be enough to win the NFC West for the first time since 2020. — Michael-Shawn Dugar
Other notables: Jaguars (35.1 percent), Cowboys (24 percent) and Bears (19.3 percent)
If six new teams make the playoffs …
That means six teams that made the 2024 postseason won’t get back.
Here are the six playoff teams from last year with the lowest percentage chance of repeating last year’s success, according to Mock’s model.
• Vikings: 35.6 percent
• Chargers: 39.6 percent
• Steelers: 44.1 percent
• Commanders: 48.5 percent
• Texans: 53.4 percent
• Broncos 53.5 percent
(Photo: Ian Maule / Getty Images)
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