The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks for Sunday’s and Monday’s NFL Week 1 slate.
Sunday
FALCONS +2.5 over Buccaneers
In Hot-Lanta, the Falcons play host to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in what was a highly competitive matchup the last two times they faced off, with Atlanta winning both matchups. Michael Penix has usurped Kirk Cousins as the quarterback and that is an upgrade as far as I’m concerned.
JETS +2.5 over Steelers
Friends turned enemies. The Jets have a totally new look and feel to their squad after moving on from Aaron Rodgers, while the Steelers added the future Hall of Fame. How that will go in Pittsburgh remains to be seen, and it won’t get a bet out of me early in the season. I suspect a low-scoring, grind-it-out affair in MetLife where it is anyone’s game.
Dolphins +1.5 over COLTS
This is my Toilet Bowl Game of the Week. I don’t see either team going anywhere, to be clear. Miami, in theory, has the edge on offense and a way better quarterback when he is healthy. When Tua Tagovailoa plays with Tyreek Hill, he has a 90.1 pass rating, compared to 102 without him.
I think Daniel Jones is a bottom-five starter in the NFL.
JAGUARS -3.5 over Panthers
Jacksonville should be a lot better this year. The Jaguars bring in an offensive coach in an attempt to fix Trevor Lawrence. But there’s no one who can fix Bryce Young, though.
Giants +6 over COMMANDERS
The Commanders beat the Giants last year by three points and then again by five points. In the three-point game, Week 2 of 2024, the Giants did not have a field goal kicker and essentially lost for that reason. They turn around and replace Jones with Russell Wilson, while adding perhaps the most vaunted pass-rushing rookie since Myles Garrett, Abdul Carter, to the squad.
Giants win outright. The Commanders were too lucky for their own good last year.
SAINTS +6.5 over Cardinals
Hold your nose with this one. Spencer Rattler isn’t my favorite, but he has flashed some talent both in college and the NFL. Kyler Murray is 13-19 against the spread as a favorite, and a terrible 1-7 against the spread (ATS) in his last eight games. Survivor pools beware.
BROWNS +5.5 over Bengals
The Bengals are a better team, to be clear, but as you’ll learn in my player props column, They have done nothing to show that they are a better team defensively than they were last year. I am bullish on Joe Flacco to have a big-time performance against one of the league’s worst passing defenses last season.
Raiders +2.5 over PATRIOTS
Christian Gonzalez is out, and Will Campbell looks unlikely to play. And all of a sudden, a spot that many expected the Patriots to win is looking very iffy for New England. All the data from last year can be thrown out the window involving the Raiders. They feature a new running back, quarterback and coach. Las Vegas is healthier and is the play this weekend.
49ers -1.5 over SEAHAWKS
This betting line has come down a bit since Christian McCaffrey popped up with a calf injury. Running backs are not worth a full point to the spread, though, so I view this as an overcorrection. The spread opened at 1.5 before moving to 2.5 and is now back down to 1.5. Seattle’s offensive line is an abject disaster, ranking No. 30 in the NFL by Pro Football Focus. Nick Bosa and the boys have a field day and win this one comfortably.
BRONCOS -8.5 over Titans
Denver is a wagon, and I suspect that they will earnestly contend for the AFC West division title. The Broncos have a defense littered with stars that will confuse the daylights out of the Titans’ rookie quarterback Cam Ward. The Broncos also have the No. 2-ranked offensive line in the NFL by PFF, behind only the Eagles.
Lions +2.5 over PACKERS
As I previously discussed in a column that debuted in The Post last week, Week 1 underdogs are 175-155-14 ATS since 2000. Moreover, divisional underdogs are 37-15-1 ATS in Week 1 since 2014. Well, score another winner for that trend, as the Cowboys easily covered against the Eagles. The Lions’ negativity has gotten a bit out of hand.
Betting on the NFL?
Texans +3 over RAMS
Once upon a time, the Houston Texans were among the league’s best teams and they received loads of Super Bowl bets last season. Their offense is still a disaster, but I equally have big questions about Matthew Stafford’s health. Los Angeles is certainly a good team in their own right, but there’s no real home-field advantage to speak of, and I think this is a buy-low spot on the Texans team that has serious upside.
Ravens -1.5 over BILLS
The Ravens are my preseason Super Bowl pick. They were defeated last postseason by Buffalo, and I see revenge on the horizon. Buffalo has been bitten by the injury bug so far this preseason. I think Lamar Jackson puts on a show here, even with the game being in Buffalo. Last year, the Ravens were the best offense in the league, averaging 6.8 yards per play while allowing 5.2 yards per play, far better numbers than the Bills had.
Monday
BEARS +1.5 over Vikings
A strange move by the Vikings to go all in on JJ McCarthy after falling apart at the seams to close last season. Sam Darnold wasn’t the answer, to be fair, but maybe Aaron Rodgers was. Regardless, I expect a heavy run-first offense in Minnesota, while the Bears dig deep into their bag to put up some points against the Vikings. Chicago is so trendy it’s scary, but I’ll go for it.
Last season: 119-138-3.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
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