NFL over/under win totals: Predictions and best bets for all 32 teams in 2025

New York Giants running back Tyrone Tracy hopped on Amazon this summer and ordered some grip strengtheners to help him hold on to the football better.

I looked. There are no common-sense pills sold online to help me with my picks this year. I am getting more rest and stronger glasses, so that should help. Last season was rough, but I am confident when looking at this year’s projected season win totals that I know when to zig where people are zagging. Zigging just for the heck of it is bad for the bottom line.

We looked at every team’s offseason moves and draft picks, as well as the schedule quirks. Like the fact the San Francisco 49ers don’t face any teams coming off a bye this season — after having to do it four times last year. Or that the Giants’ brutal opening eight-game stretch is going to have fans calling for Jaxson Dart by Halloween, no matter how Russell Wilson does. That is some scary stuff for a lame-duck coach.

Here then are my highly anticipated picks for every team’s win-loss over/under — with six best bets — and we also have an MVP longshot mentioned for your amusement. All betting lines are as of the time the pick was made and subject to change.

Best bets

Houston Texans over 9.5 (+100)

For having a disappointing season last year, the Texans still won 10 games (going over the projected total) and only trailed the Chiefs by one point entering the fourth quarter of the divisional playoff round. They were 4-1 in the games where they had both Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs, before injuries and predictable play calling exposed a terrible offensive line. C.J. Stroud was sacked 54 times and was understandably a little jumpy. The offensive line is still a big concern but Nick Caley will be more innovative than Bobby Slowik with the X’s and O’s, and we like the additions at receiver of Christian Kirk and rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel to go with Collins. With their great pass rush, it’s impossible not to see the Texans winning at least 10 games for a third straight season.

New England Patriots under 8.5 (+100)

We like Mike Vrabel fine, but to hear people talk this offseason, the new Patriots coach is a combination of Vince Lombardi and Bill Belichick. New England is coming off back-to-back four-win seasons and was not favored in a single game last season. The Patriots had a point differential of -128. Now, thanks to Vrabel and an aggressive offseason, the Patriots are picked to more than double their win total. Vrabel did make the playoffs three times in his six years as coach in Tennessee, but was fired after two losing seasons so maybe people can stop blowing up the Hall of Fame balloons.  Quarterback Drake Maye and the young secondary of Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis III are fine, but overpaying new defensive players and bringing in Diggs and Shoeless Mack Hollins doesn’t add up to nine wins.

Minnesota Vikings over 9.5 (+105)

To hear everyone tell it, Sam Darnold fell apart in the playoffs and single-handedly ruined the Vikings’ 14-win season. But now he is gone … and the Vikings are four or five games worse? Tackle Christian Darrisaw is back from injury and the Vikings, after collapsing down the stretch, will have one of the best offensive lines again. Not to mention the best receiver in the NFL. The defense is still nasty — thanks to coordinator Brian Flores not being able to get a better job because he is suing the league — and added Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave. So, apparently the issue here is just quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who missed all of his rookie season with a knee injury and had the Vikings flirting with Aaron Rodgers this offseason. C’mon. Man, this team wins 10 games with J.J. from “Good Times” at quarterback.

Dallas Cowboys under 8.5 (-140)

The Cowboys were quiet this offseason, not making any splashy signings and firing coach Mike McCarthy for an in-house guy (Brian Schottenheimer) who was not mentioned on any coaching list league-wide. (And there are a lot of lists!) Dallas did trade for receiver George Pickens, who on paper is a perfect fit — a deep threat to line up opposite CeeDee Lamb and take advantage of Dak Prescott’s big arm. But Mike Tomlin had reached the end of his wits with Pickens in Pittsburgh, and the last time he let a star player leave, Antonio Brown showed up with scorched feet in a hot air balloon and put the Raiders through hell. We’re also concerned with the running game, as the Cowboys will regret letting Rico Dowdle walk. This season will hit the rocks during a brutal Week 12 through 15 stretch where the Cowboys play the Eagles, Chiefs, Lions and Vikings and Jerry Jones starts openly pining for Arch Manning.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers over 9.5 (-110)

The Buccaneers take care of business in the regular season every year and have gone over their projected win total in five of the last six seasons. Now, they have all 11 starters back on offense, including receiver Chris Godwin, who didn’t go for what he should have in free agency and Tampa Bay smartly didn’t let him leave. This team also drafts well, and first-round pick Emeka Egbuka will join Mike Evans and Godwin in making the reborn Baker Mayfield very happy to keep slinging it. The Buccaneers have a new offensive coordinator for the third straight year, but clearly that doesn’t matter when you have guys like Evans, Godwin and Bucky Irving. New pass rusher Haason Reddick had 50 1/2 sacks from 2020 to ’23 and could spark the defense.

Detroit Lions over 10.5 (+110)

The Lions won 15 games last season and apparently people are nervous because Dan Campbell lost both of his coordinators and his Pro Bowl center. The last team to hit that sad trifecta … won the Super Bowl last year. Aidan Hutchinson is back from his broken leg and the Lions get a nice bump from the schedule, as they face five teams coming off “Monday Night Football” games. This is a big year for the Lions, as all the big contracts are starting to add up and the inevitable squeeze comes next offseason. The Lions know this and are not scared. Of anything. They were the only team that plays the Eagles this season that didn’t vote to ban the Tush Push. They are also the team with the fifth-best Super Bowl odds at 10-1, and I like the value.

AFC

Kansas City Chiefs under 11.5 (-120)

Hot take: The Chiefs are not going to go 11-0 in one-score games again this season. What’s more, their division keeps getting tougher and, holy Taylor Swift, the schedule … they open in Brazil, follow up with a Super Bowl rematch and also play Baltimore, Detroit, Washington and Buffalo in their first nine games. Five of their first eight games are on prime-time TV, and they also play on Thanksgiving and Christmas. Yes, Patrick Mahomes is too good for his own good. But the Chiefs got blown out in the Super Bowl because their offensive line got pushed backward and Andy Reid gave up on the running game. The jury is out if former 49ers backup Jaylon Moore and rookie Josh Simmons address the offensive line issue, but there is still enough talent on this team to cruise to 11 wins and save Travis Kelce’s legs for the playoffs.

Buffalo Bills over 11.5 (-175)

Remember back when the Patriots were running these streets? The other teams in the AFC East never put up much of a fight, and the same is true now. Josh Allen can’t help but win 12 games in this division. While the Bills are up against the salary cap and their offensive moves this offseason didn’t move the needle (Joshua Palmer? Really?), you don’t have to squint too hard to picture edge rusher Joey Bosa having an impact on his new team. The Bills’ roster is plenty good enough to win the Super Bowl, especially if receiver Keon Coleman can make a decent-sized Year 2 jump. Plus, they enjoy a nice ramp to start the season, as after an opener against the Ravens, the Bills play six teams that had losing records last year.

Baltimore Ravens under 11.5 (-102)

The Ravens did what they had to do, re-signing left tackle Ronnie Stanley and bolstering up their secondary with Jaire Alexander, Malaki Starks and Chidobe Awuzie. Stanley, 31, missed 36 games with various injuries from 2020 to ’23 before playing in all 17 games last season. Which brings us to the incredible luck the Ravens had last year. Baltimore lost just 16.3 adjusted games to injury last season (7.7 on offense), by far the fewest in the league per BetMGM. They won 12 games last season and, while no one expects Derrick Henry to hit a wall at 31, there has to be some regression for the Ravens on the injury front as well as with Henry, who averaged 4.2 yards a carry in 2023 and 5.9 in 2024.

Cincinnati Bengals over 9.5 (-140)

Two of the Ravens’ wins last year came by a total of four points over the Bengals, who were steamed to learn that they have to play at Baltimore in prime time for the fourth year in a row (and on a short-week Thursday night game for the third time). And this year, the Bengals will have to play them with defensive players off the street, as the receivers and quarterback took all the money. The owners do actually have a little bit left, and edge rusher Trey Hendrickson wants it. He seems to have all the leverage, and if he doesn’t ultimately get the big deal after holding out, or is traded, go ahead and punt this prediction. At least the Bengals should be able to avoid another bad start this season, as they open against the Browns and the Jaguars.

Denver Broncos over 9.5 (-110)

Everybody knows how wrong I was about Bo Nix last year. And I guess on how great a coach Sean Payton is. There has to be some regression this year, but that won’t interfere with the Broncos winning 10 or 11 games and challenging the Chiefs for the division crown. That’s because the defense ranked first in EPA per play last season and is better this season. Denver drafted cornerback Jahdae Barron, added free agents Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga, plus re-signed run stuffer D.J. Jones. The offense added hard-nosed rookie running back RJ Harvey, the offensive line is pretty good and, free fantasy tip, draft tight end Evan Engram one or two rounds higher than you were planning to.

Los Angeles Chargers under 9.5 (-110)

Who had it better than the Chargers this offseason? A lot of teams. Signing guard Mekhi Becton made sense, though the Omarion Hampton/Najee Harris backfield seems to have a low ceiling for me (Hampton is too stiff in the hips to be a first-round back, especially in such a deep draft class). Ladd McConkey needed a little more help at receiver than just bringing back Mike Williams. Defensively, Khalil Mack is back for another season, but the Chargers didn’t replace Joey Bosa on the other edge. I look forward to another season of the pundits yelling how special quarterback Justin Herbert is, and then how he is really not that special because he can’t get the Chargers past the first round of the playoffs.

Pittsburgh Steelers under 8.5 (-120)

The Steelers are all in, apparently, after their moves to get Aaron Rodgers, DK Metcalf, Jalen Ramsey and Darius Slay. Only Metcalf is anywhere near his prime, though, and the “all-in” seems more like a final desperate move than one stemming from confidence in one’s holdings. The Steelers can finally start rebuilding next year — is that why they are reluctant to give pass rusher T.J. Watt a new deal? — if Mike Tomlin can’t work his magic again. Rodgers needs to get off to a good start, as the schedule is friendlier at first — the Steelers open with the Jets, Seahawks and Patriots — before stuff gets real, with the Bills, Ravens, Dolphins (Minkah Fitzpatrick revenge game) and Lions in Weeks 13 through 16. I should know better than to doubt Tomlin but …

Miami Dolphins over 7.5 (-110)

Last year was the first time Mike McDaniel’s team went under its projected win total in his four years. McDaniel has shown he can draw up a play like an artist, and the only reason for hope this season is that receiver Tyreek Hill is healthy and blowing by people again. Tua Tagovailoa can spin it, as long as the weather is nice and he can avoid getting hit, and eight wins is doable, thanks to an inviting first eight weeks (the Colts, Patriots, Jets, Panthers, Browns and Falcons are club-sandwiched around losses to the Bills and Chargers). The cornerbacks without Ramsey are not good, but Fitzpatrick will make some big plays at safety. Hmm, 7.5 is not going to be easy, but I am rolling with Hill, De’Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle, Darren Waller (!), Tua and the Miami heat to melt some teams early.

Jacksonville Jaguars over 7.5 (-125)

This is Year 5 for Trevor Lawrence, and the Jaguars have only surpassed expectations in one of those seasons (2022). Which means … they’re due! The Jags paid a huge price to trade up for Travis Hunter, and I thought it was the right move. Teams need star players, and Hunter could have a Shohei Ohtani-type effect if he can make plays at both receiver and cornerback. The Jags already have a star in receiver Brian Thomas and bolstered their offensive line. The running backs are good enough. The defensive line has some talent and should make things easier for the new faces in the secondary (Hunter, Jourdan Lewis and Eric Murray). This all assumes that new coach Liam Coen doesn’t just disappear one day.

Indianapolis Colts under 7.5 (-110)

The Colts have not drafted well, and thus have not made the playoffs in four years — and that they signed Daniel Jones to push Anthony Richardson at quarterback speaks volumes. It seemed like Jones was already winning the job even before Richardson tweaked his bad shoulder. The Colts can run the ball and we like Josh Downs and Michael Pittman Jr. at receiver, and rookie tight end Tyler Warren is another nice target that Jones will totally over- or underthrow at a crucial moment. Lou Anarumo was once a hot name at defensive coordinator, but the Bengals fired him and he inherits a strong defensive line and added nice pieces in the secondary in Charvarius Ward and Camryn Bynum. The middle is not a good place to be, and the Colts have reached at least seven wins in four of the last five seasons — and they nail that number this season.

Las Vegas Raiders over 6.5 (-150)

Las Vegas has been where quarterbacks are taken out to the desert in the back of a van and not given a ride back. After Derek Carr was cut, free agents Jimmy Garoppolo and Gardner Minshew were respected veterans who signed with the Raiders the last two years and were quickly horrendous. A snap of the fingers and they’re gone. This season, it’s Geno Smith’s turn, and at least he is old pals with new coach Pete Carroll. Smith has a ho-hum receiving corps and offensive line, but a couple of future stars in tight end Brock Bowers and rookie running back Ashton Jeanty. The road to seven wins won’t be a smooth one, though, as the Raiders lost a lot of defensive starters and defensive tackle Christian Wilkins was still wearing a boot months after he was supposed to have ditched it.

New York Jets under 5.5 (+135)

New coach Aaron Glenn wanted no part of Aaron Rodgers, and while I can’t fault him for that, he might second-guess that decision when Justin Fields misses a target by 5 yards. Fields is on his third team in three years and is electric as a runner, while very erratic as a thrower. The Jets have beefed up their offensive line, which sounds like it should help. The defense fell off dramatically after Robert Saleh was fired, but they have high hopes for linebacker Jermaine Johnson to be a difference-maker. The schedule is not too tough (hello, NFC South!), but there are too many holes on this roster to be able to laugh at Rodgers for being told to hit the road. Locking up Garrett Wilson and Sauce Gardner does buy some patience from fans.

Tennessee Titans under 5.5 (+125)

Once the gap between Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders widened, the Titans’ new front office really had no choice but to draft Ward with the first pick of the draft. Teams ideally only get the opportunity to pick that high once a decade or two, and they can’t pass up on a potential franchise quarterback. I don’t know if Ward is one, and I think it’s valid to wonder where he would have been drafted with all those first-round quarterbacks in 2024. Ward can sling it, but the lame-duck coaching staff may need to quickly erase some bad habits (forcing throws, drifting in the pocket, accuracy) and get the most out of him early to avoid getting its walking papers in the Week 10 bye. The defensive holes and lack of a pass rush don’t help.

Cleveland Browns under 4.5 (+145)

Joe Flacco is back to save the day, assuming he beats out Kenny Pickett. Your mother told you never to assume, but she loves Flacco. And Shedeur Sanders should get a much-needed win and beat out Dillon Gabriel for the No. 3 job, as the Browns will learn you can’t draft a short quarterback in the third round just because he has a firm handshake and intangibles. The Browns should have traded Myles Garrett to get more draft picks for the inevitable rebuild, but they didn’t — which will suck in some over-4.5 win players. Sorry, guys. The Browns are definitely starting 0-5, and maybe 0-8.

NFC

Philadelphia Eagles under 11.5 (-125)

Four thousand, three hundred and ninety seems like a big number, but Howie Roseman isn’t even worried. That’s the number of defensive snaps the Eagles lost from last season with the departure of Josh Sweat, Milton Williams, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Darius Slay, Isaiah Rodgers and Oren Burks. While the Eagles GM is famous for stockpiling young talent to step in, there is also the matter of a tough opening stretch of the schedule while nursing a Super Bowl hangover. Forget the Cowboys in the opener, but the Eagles then play the Chiefs, Rams, Buccaneers and Broncos, followed by road games at the Giants and Vikings.

San Francisco 49ers over 10.5 (-102)

There have been some glowing reports about Christian McCaffrey’s health, and yes, after what happened last season, 49ers fans and fantasy GMs have plenty of reason to be skeptical. McCaffrey is just one of the reasons the 49ers should bounce back from a 6-11 record. They brought back defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, used their first five draft picks on the defense and traded for pass rusher Bryce Huff to line up opposite Nick Bosa. Brock Purdy got a big new contract, and there’s no reason to think he can’t take another step in his development. The 49ers lost receiver Deebo Samuel but Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall will hold it down — maybe? — until Brandon Aiyuk is back. (We gave you Josh Allen as the MVP at 8-to-1 last year and if he doesn’t repeat — at 6-to-1 — Purdy might just shock the world at 28-to-1.)

Washington Commanders over 9.5 (-120)

The Commanders had a magical 12-win season last year, demonstrated best by the fact that they converted 20 of 23 fourth downs. That will be impossible to repeat, and while Jayden Daniels is special, the Commanders will take a step or two back this year. But not three. They should still win at least 10 games, as the offensive line is better and Deebo Samuel, for all the internet fat-shaming, still has some plays left in him. Just give him a breather or 10. The defense took some hits, and the pass rush is a little suspect, but Daniels will again win two or three games because he and Terry McLaurin have the ball last — assuming they work out McLaurin’s contract situation.

Los Angeles Rams under 9.5 (+125)

The Raiders were convinced they were getting Matthew Stafford until he and his wife changed their minds. Good thing because the Rams fancy themselves Super Bowl contenders and need the 37-year-old Stafford to stay healthy and help Davante Adams return to his place among the top five receivers in the NFL. Kyren Williams is still underrated toting the rock, and the defensive front somehow didn’t miss Aaron Donald when he retired. But the linebackers and secondary are nothing special, and if Stafford or an offensive lineman or two go down, Sean McVay may start thinking about the broadcast booth again.

Green Bay Packers under 9.5 (+100)

The Packers needed a pass rusher and a No. 1 receiver this offseason, and they still do. They drafted receiver Matthew Golden in the first round but he is more of a project than an impact newcomer, and they figure to lean heavily on running back Josh Jacobs again. Which is fine. The Packers signed guard Aaron Banks for a lot of money, but he is not a sure-fire guy. Neither is new cornerback Nate Hobbs, who had trouble staying healthy with the Raiders. Could Jordan Love elevate the whole operation? Sure, but do you really want to bet on that?

Arizona Cardinals under 8.5 (+100)

With the return to health of the 49ers, it looks like the Cardinals are the worst team in the division again. But at least they are trying. They added puss rusher Josh Sweat and Calais Campbell up front, as well as rookie Walter Nolen. Offensively, Kyler Murray has 82 career starts without a playoff win and is hoping something finally clicks with last year’s top pick, Marvin Harrison Jr. Tight end Trey McBride has become one of the best in the league, but Murray may not have time to always find him as the offensive line took some hits in the offseason and will need some time to jell. That’s not good as the schedule is a lot easier in the first six weeks than it is the rest of the way.

Chicago Bears under 8.5 (-135)

The Bears won five games last season. Is wonderboy Ben Johnson worth four wins? He can run a nifty offense, but he has never been a head coach — can he motivate and lead men? Obviously, Caleb Williams will be better than last season, but how much? He almost seems like a magnet for sacks. Johnson added three offensive linemen in free agency, though Jonah Jackson was benched by the Rams last season. The Bears also drafted a tight end to feature in first-rounder Colston Loveland and then signed edge rusher Dayo Odeyingbo. All good moves, but a midseason stretch where the Bears play six road games (with five against 2024 playoff teams) in nine weeks will prove too tough to finish with a winning record.

Seattle Seahawks over 7.5 (-150)

If I am not careful here, I am going to be tagged as a Darnold guy, and I still have mental scars from going to bat for Daniel Jones last year. I don’t think Darnold is an even swap for the departed Geno Smith, but would I take Darnold and a third-round pick and save $21 million instead of Smith? I would jump, and I don’t jump very often these days. I also am curious to see what packages the Seahawks use for rookie QB Jalen Milroe, who might be as great a runner as Lamar Jackson. Cooper Kupp’s tank level is questionable, but he should be fine as a No. 2 behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The offensive line is not very good, and while I do like the defensive additions of DeMarcus Lawrence and Ernest Jones IV, all we need is the Seahawks to not take a three-game slide in Mike MacDonald’s second season.

Atlanta Falcons under 7.5 (+120)

Your guess here is as good as mine. How good is Michael Penix Jr.? I love the swagger but that can backfire at times and you have to wonder how long the Falcons will let him struggle — if he does — before they go back to Kirk Cousins. That’s part of the deal when you’re paying the backup $27.5 million in salary this year. There is talent on this team, and fantasy must-have Drake London turned a corner last season. But there is also some poor roster construction, first evidenced by the pricey QB double-up last year and then by the Falcons signing aging pass rusher Leonard Floyd, drafting pass rusher Jalon Walker in the first round and then trading a future first-round pick to get back in the first round and take pass rusher James Pearce Jr. Give me the under.

Carolina Panthers over 6.5 (-145)

The Panthers’ fortunes — and yours if you’re really eyeing this excessively attractive offer like me — rest on the shoulders of one man. And it’s not Bryce Young. It’s first-round pick Tetairoa McMillan. Teams were split on his route running, but coach Dave Canales saw his size (6-feet-4, 219 pounds) and speed (4.48 40-yard dash) and started having Mike Evans flashbacks from his days in Tampa. Young needs a big-play receiver and a target in the red zone to take the next step, as he already has a good offensive line and punishing ground game. The new front office didn’t draft Young so it wants to see what the upside really is after Young finished strong last season, with 10 touchdowns and zero turnovers in the last three games. Derrick Brown is back so the defense won’t be horrible again, and the Panthers should be able to get two more wins.

New York Giants over 5.5 (+110)

It would be nice if old guys Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers could find some stability and success after a rough couple of years bouncing around the league. Wilson will be a nice improvement over Daniel Jones, as Malik Nabers will see an uptick in catchable passes thrown on time. But, like Rodgers, Wilson doesn’t move around so well anymore and will be a sitting duck for pass rushers and boo birds. Both should be rampant, as the Giants open with road games at Washington and Dallas and then come home to face the Chiefs and Chargers. Then they play the Super Bowl champs twice in Weeks 6 and 8, sandwiched around a game in Denver. The Giants have built one of the best defensive fronts in the league, and while they may not be great enough to prevent a QB change to Jaxson Dart or save coach Brian Daboll’s job, they can get to six wins.

New Orleans Saints over 4.5 (-160)

Derek Carr’s surprise retirement saved the Saints $30 million and gave them a clear path to Arch Manning if he decides to enter the draft next year. So, yes, start building the statue for Carr in New Orleans. New coach Kellen Moore was clearly not impressed with Spencer Rattler as the Saints drafted a quarterback who went to college for seven years at No. 40. Tyler Shough, though, does have some arm talent, a great offensive line and Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave. That, along with a good homefield advantage and a grizzled defense with some pride (and Cameron Jordan, Chase Young, Justin Reid, Kool-Aid McKinstry and Tyrann Mathieu) should muck up all of Carr’s efforts to land Manning. Heck, the Saints may even win six games.

(Top illustration of Aidan Hutchinson, C.J. Stroud and Brock Purdy: Will Tullos / The Athletic; photos: Logan Riely, Joe Sargent, Rey Del Rio / Getty Images)