NFL execs rank NFC teams: Packers push Eagles after Parsons trade. Cowboys now underrated?

Editor’s note: This article is part of our Countdown to Kickoff series, in which we highlight the NFL’s top teams, players, predictions and storylines to watch as the 2025 season begins.

With the 2025 NFL season opener nearly here, I’ve polled eight NFL executives for a snapshot of expectations for all 16 teams in each conference.

We’ll start with the NFC today, followed by the AFC on Thursday.

“The NFC is really hard to do,” one of the execs said. “The difference between Team 1 and Team 7 in the AFC is pretty similar to the difference between Teams 2 and 13 in the NFC.”

This exec’s conclusion: A team from the NFC is making the playoffs out of nowhere.

“It’s going to be a team that just got super lucky,” he added.

The eight execs, whose backgrounds range from personnel evaluation to contracts/salary cap and analytics/strategy, ranked every team in each conference on condition of anonymity for competitive reasons. They also offered explanations, included below.

Teams are ordered by the median of their rankings, with ties between teams broken by average vote. The defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles were nearly a unanimous choice for the top spot in the NFC, while the team that was No. 1 in this space entering 2024, San Francisco, fell to No. 7 amid some concerns.

1. Philadelphia Eagles

Votes: 1-1-1-2-1-1-1-2 | Avg: 1.3 | Median: 1 | Vegas wins: 11.5 (1st-NFC)

The defending Super Bowl champions remain the NFC favorite with the expectation that their defense, which ranked second in EPA per play last season, per TruMedia, could be better in the second year under coordinator Vic Fangio.

“I know Nakobe Dean will miss some time, but that’s a young defense that should continue to ascend under Fangio with Cooper DeJean in Year 2, Quinyon Mitchell in Year 2,” one of the execs said.

The Eagles fielded the fourth-youngest snap-weighted defense last season after fielding the NFL’s fourth-oldest unit in each of the four previous seasons.

“I think Philly takes a little step back,” one of the execs ranking the Eagles second in the conference said, noting that offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who left to become coach of the New Orleans Saints, could be missed.

2. Green Bay Packers

Votes: 5-2-2-1-2-4-4-1 | Avg: 2.6 | Median: 2 | Vegas wins: 10.5 (T-2nd)

One of the voters ranking Green Bay first had them No. 1 even before the Packers acquired pass rusher Micah Parsons from Dallas. This exec expected continued growth on defense under second-year coordinator Jeff Hafley, and he struggled to find a weakness on offense.

“The receivers are maybe best in the league, they have a couple good tight ends and they spent some on the O-line,” this exec said. “I don’t know where their weakness is. Maybe it is the quarterback (Jordan Love), but I think he is going to be fine in the end.”

The 50 coaches and executives participating in my 2025 Quarterback Tiers survey slotted Love 13th, between Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy near the bottom of Tier 2.

“Green Bay has very few holes on paper,” another voter said. “Youngest team in the league. The offense should be loaded. Matt LaFleur is one of the most underrated coaches. You add Parsons to go with a much-improved defense already last year.”

3. Detroit Lions

Votes: 2-11-3-3-3-2-2-4 | Avg: 3.8 | Median: 3 | Vegas wins: 10.5 (T-2nd)

The No. 11 prediction for Detroit did not affect the overall order here but requires an immediate reckoning.

“I refuse to believe they keep rolling after losing two starters on their offensive line and their two highest-paid assistant coaches,” this Detroit doubter explained.

Losing both coordinators — Ben Johnson on offense and Anthony Glenn on defense — could hurt. Losing mainstay center Frank Ragnow and guard Kevin Zeitler could further complicate matters for the offense. But all the other voters still had the Lions between second and fourth in the NFC.

“Man, they’re so talented,” one of the execs slotting Detroit second in the NFC said. “Getting Aidan Hutchinson back will be bigger, I think, than losing the coordinators.”

This voter then rattled off a long list of talented players on the Lions’ offense.

“That is way too much talent to regress off losing one coach (Johnson),” this exec said. “The sting of the playoff loss, the naysayers without Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn — I mean, I think they’re going to be really hungry.”

Oddsmakers agree; BetMGM lists only four teams with better odds to win the Super Bowl than the +1200 Lions.

“Detroit has had some turnover, but I believe the head coach can help navigate some things,” another exec said. “They have enough veteran play on both sides of the ball to get things the right way.”

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Votes: 4-3-5-4-4-6-3-5 | Avg: 4.4 | Median: 4 | Vegas wins: 9.5 (T-5th)

One year ago, when the Buccaneers were coming off a third consecutive NFC South title, execs ranked Tampa Bay between seventh and 11th in the NFC on all ballots. Winning a fourth division title in a row, led by the NFL’s fourth-ranked offense by EPA per play, has made believers, with all eight execs ranking the Buccaneers between third and sixth entering 2025.

“I think their only weakness is the secondary,” one of the execs slotting Tampa Bay fourth in the NFC said.

Having a first-time offensive coordinator for a third consecutive season would be scarier if newbies Dave Canales and Liam Coen hadn’t parlayed one-year stints into head-coaching jobs.

“What’s new?” another exec said. “They are running the same offense.”

The scheme should carry over under Josh Grizzard, who was promoted after Coen left for Jacksonville.

“My Rookie of the Year non-quarterback is the receiver they took, (Emeka) Egbuka,” another exec said. “They’ll get (Chris) Godwin back at some point. They’ll get healthier on the offensive line.”

5. Los Angeles Rams

Votes: 6-9-6-10-6-3-5-8 | Avg: 6.6 | Median: 6 | Vegas wins: 9.5 (T-5th)

The wide distribution of votes for the Rams (third to 10th) reflects uncertainty over quarterback Matthew Stafford’s ability to make it through a full season with back problems at age 37.

“I trust Stafford’s back more than (Brandon) Aiyuk’s knee,” an exec ranking the Rams sixth said, explaining one reason why he had the Rams over Aiyuk’s San Francisco 49ers.

An AFC exec was the voter highest on the Rams, ranking them third, contingent on Stafford being healthy.

“That defense is very impressive,” this exec said. “They have a lot of youth. They get after guys. They challenge your offense. They force the issue. They’ll create turnovers. They have a good athletic front four. And then, unlike the Giants, they have complementary play from their secondary. Then you add Davante Adams to a quarterback like Matt Stafford, and a coordinator/head coach that they have (Sean McVay), with two really good running backs, and that makes it very interesting.”

6. Washington Commanders

Votes: 3-6-7-7-5-7-7-3 | Avg: 5.6 | Median: 6.5 | Vegas wins: 9.5 (T-5th)

Both voters ranking Washington third in the NFC did so because they thought Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels was so much better than just about every QB in the conference.

“Mark it down: He’s Tier 1 all day next year,” one of these voters said. “The dual threat, multiple good backs, Zach Ertz is still productive, you figured out the (Terry) McLaurin situation, you added Deebo (Samuel), you added Laremy Tunsil, and then it comes down to the defense.”

Washington ranked 24th in defensive EPA per play last season.

“I like Jayden Daniels and think they will do a decent job on defense,” the other voter ranking Washington third said. “They are hungry enough to where I think they will still be grinding. Defensively, if you can minimize change and have decent personnel, I think you are going to be better the second year, as long as you are not too old. I think they will be fine.”

7. San Francisco 49ers

Votes: 7-4-4-5-8-8-8-6 | Avg: 6.3 | Median: 6.5 | Vegas wins: 10.5 (T-2nd)

The gap between where execs see San Francisco (seventh in the NFC) and where Vegas has the 49ers’ win total (tied for second in the conference) seems massive on the surface. However, subtracting just one victory from the 49ers’ win total would place San Francisco in a bucket of five teams ranking fourth to eighth in the conference. That’s a pretty fine line.

“I think San Francisco is in trouble just a little bit,” one exec said. “Their receivers aren’t as good. Their O-line is average. I’m not all-in on Brock Purdy as a $53 million quarterback. Maybe their defense saves them.”

This voter slotted the 49ers sixth and said their troubles were relative to past success. He thought they could be 9-8 or 10-7.

“I’m optimistic about them,” another voter said. “I think they bounce back this year. They will be healthier. Obviously, they are not healthy at receiver, but I think we’re going to have a bounce-back year from Christian McCaffrey, and I think (Brock) Purdy will take another jump here, and I think their defense will be really good. The addition of Robert Saleh is going to be good, with (Kris) Kocurek as their line coach coming back.”

8. Minnesota Vikings

Votes: 8-8-9-8-9-5-6-7 | Avg: 7.5 | Median: 8 | Vegas wins: 9.5 (T-5th)

There isn’t precedent for a 14-win team turning over its offense to a quarterback with zero regular-season NFL snaps. The closest might be the 1999 Broncos, where the retired John Elway was replaced by Brian Griese, who had attempted just three passes as a third-round rookie in 1998. But here the Vikings are, with J.J. McCarthy replacing Sam Darnold.

“You never hear of that,” one of the voters ranking Minnesota eighth said. “It’s absurd.”

On the other hand, Sam Darnold was not exactly Fran Tarkenton.

“I’m putting my trust in what the coordinator/head coach (Kevin O’Connell) does for the quarterbacks,” said the exec who was highest on Minnesota. “Sam Darnold’s not a guy. He goes there, he’s a guy. J.J. is athletic, can spin it and has some guys to throw to. They have an underrated offensive line when healthy, (Brian) Flores does a nice job on defense and they got some secondary help, which had been an Achilles’ heel.”

9. Seattle Seahawks

Votes: 11-5-8-9-7-9-12-9 | Avg: 8.8 | Median: 9 | Vegas wins: 8.5 (T-9th)

The Seahawks traded quarterback Geno Smith and receiver DK Metcalf following a 10-win season. It wasn’t an exact match for what the Vikings did in moving on from Darnold, but from afar, these were big changes.

“More turnover than you’d like for a team that won 10 games, but on paper, Klint Kubiak is an upgrade at coordinator, Darnold could be an upgrade at quarterback, (Jaxon) Smith-Njigba will continue to ascend,” the voter ranking Seattle 11th in the NFC said. “If the O-line is much improved, that is huge.”

Uncertainty regarding Darnold stopped some voters from ranking Seattle higher.

“They are good up front, their defense is going to be outstanding and they are going to do really well situationally,” the voter highest on Seattle said. “(Mike) Macdonald will improve from his first to second year. Like Bill Parcells said, your first staff is your worst staff. He moves on from the offensive coordinator. Year over year, he is going to see a jump there, in the vision of what he wants to do.”

10. Arizona Cardinals

Votes: 15-12-11-6-10-12-11-11 | Avg: 11.0 | Median: 11 | Vegas wins: 8.5 (T-9th)

The gap in average vote from Seattle to Arizona (-2.4) trails only the gap between No. 3 Detroit and No. 4 Tampa Bay (-2.4), so there’s a line of demarcation entering this group of teams.

“They are good enough to stay in games,” a voter ranking Arizona ninth said. “They will be relevant until the fourth quarter, and more times than not, they will not be able to close games out. Whether it be a turnover, the inability to get a stop. They can be exciting to watch. Kyler Murray is very talented and can make some things happen. But I don’t know that they have enough from a team makeup standpoint to close games out.”

The Cardinals used first-round picks in 2024 and 2025 to bolster their defense. The players they selected, Darius Robinson last year and Walter Nolen this year, both missed the start of the season after suffering calf injuries in camp. How much will the defense improve?

“I think they’re a team that could beat teams that people wouldn’t expect them to beat,” another voter said. “And then I expect (Jonathan) Gannon to continue to do well molding that defense to his liking. But losing Nolen to that injury, I expected him to be an impact player, so to have him not practice all of camp and be out the first few weeks is going to hurt his development.”

11. Atlanta Falcons

Votes: 10-7-12-13-11-11-13-14 | Avg: 11.4 | Median: 11.5 | Vegas wins: 8.5 (T-9th)

Atlanta and Chicago tied in median vote, with the Falcons getting the edge on the slightly better average vote. The voter highest on the Falcons had them seventh, based largely on what he thought about quarterback Michael Penix Jr.

“Penix was my top QB coming out of that draft, and if he pops this year, they’re easily the seventh seed in that conference,” this voter said.

Another voter heard good things about the Falcons’ rookie pass rushers, Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr., from their performances in joint practices. He gave the Falcons an edge over the Bears based on continuity.

“I’m going Atlanta because I trust Michael Penix coming back in the same scheme for his second year, unlike Caleb Williams in Chicago,” this voter said.

The exec lowest on the Falcons had them 14th.

“Not buying,” he said. “I’m not against Penix. They have other issues. Nothing really scares you about them.”

12. Chicago Bears

Votes: 12-10-10-11-16-13-9-13 | Avg: 11.8 | Median: 11.5 | Vegas wins: 8.5 (T-9th)

As one voter considered his ballot, he made an observation intended more as a compliment to the NFC North than as a dig at the Bears.

“Chicago is going to be the best last-place team in football,” this voter said. “Ben Johnson and Dennis Allen, those are two really good play callers. The defense was pretty good last year. The offense should be much improved. Best last-place team I can remember in a while.”

The exec highest on Chicago had the Bears ninth.

“I think Ben Johnson is going to be able to protect that quarterback a little bit,” this exec said. “I don’t think the quarterback is great, but I think Ben will be able to put him in more favorable situations. Also, their D-line plays with good tenacity.”

13. Dallas Cowboys

Votes: 13-14-14-14-12-10-15-10 | Avg: 12.8 | Median: 13.5 | Vegas wins: 7.5 (13th)

The Cowboys are 36-15 (.706) over their last three seasons in which Dak Prescott started more than half the games. Have they really fallen this far after trading Parsons, replacing Mike McCarthy with Brian Schottenheimer and welcoming back Prescott from injury?

“Recency bias could be playing into it,” one of the execs said.

Dallas’ stated intention to run the ball might be easier if the Cowboys’ running backs were better.

“Javonte Williams did not look the same after his injury, so it will be up to that rookie (Jaydon Blue) to give them any juice at all,” another voter said. “Otherwise, they have to air it out. They still have playmakers on defense in (DaRon) Bland and (Trevon) Diggs, and once they get (DeMarvion) Overshown back, that will be huge. We might be overreacting putting them so low.”

14. New York Giants

Votes: 14-13-13-15-14-15-10-15 | Avg: 13.6 | Median: 14 | Vegas wins: 5.5 (15th)

The exec ranking the Giants 10th saw something the others did not see.

“The Giants have some good players,” he said, “but they haven’t had a quarterback. Now they have a chance to actually prove it. I’m not saying Russ (Wilson) is the greatest, but Russ doesn’t lose more than 10 games a season.”

All agree the Giants’ defensive front, bolstered by rookie Abdul Carter, should be formidable.

“It’s great to have guys that get to the quarterback, but you’ve got to earn the right to get to that point,” another exec said. “And if you can’t cover on the back end, it’s going to be tough.”

This exec questioned the Giants’ ability to play complementary football.

“They don’t have the horses at running back,” he said. “They’ve got a young kid that is pretty talented (Tyrone Tracy), but I don’t think they can control the game with the running game, play-pass, those types of things. And then Russell was at his best when he was able to extend the down. That’s not part of his game now.”

15. Carolina Panthers

Votes: 9-15-15-12-15-14-14-16 | Avg: 13.8 | Median: 14.5 | Vegas wins: 6.5 (14th)

The Panthers ranked ninth in offensive EPA per play over the final seven games last season but went 2-5 over that stretch thanks to a defense that ranked 32nd. Most execs needed to see much more from the offense before placing a bet on Carolina.

“I don’t know what makes them good,” one exec said. “I’m not convinced the quarterback is anything but a small guy, so you have to piece his throws together.”

Jalen Coker’s emergence at receiver helped Carolina feel better about trading Adam Thielen, until Coker suffered a quad injury that will sideline him at least four games.

“I think Bryce Young will continue to ascend,” the voter ranking Carolina ninth said. “The big thing will be, can he mitigate the turnovers and not have those throws where you are like, ‘Man, you are too smart to make that type of throw.’”

16. New Orleans

Votes: 16-16-16-16-13-16-16-12 | Avg: 15.1 | Median: 16 | Vegas wins: 4.5 (16th)

The Saints were close to a consensus pick for last in the conference.

“We all know that is going to take time,” one exec said. “They will lean on Alvin Kamara in the run game. They still have Chris Olave. They still have Rasheed Shaheed. The offensive line is actually OK. Defensively, they are older, but they are not going to go 0-17.”

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(Photo of Micah Parsons: Kyle Ross / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)