After a six-game “home” stretch for all intents and purposes, Nebraska finally travels to an opponent’s stadium. Like the Huskers last week, the Terrapins looked great for a portion of the game, and stagnant for another. Unlike Nebraska, Maryland failed to pull out the victory. The Terps could very easily be 5-0 if it weren’t for their fourth-quarter collapse last week against Washington. Nebraska will also look to bounce back after it looked anemic for two quarters against Michigan State.
This is only the fourth meeting between the two schools, all of which have occurred in the last 10 years. The Huskers lost dramatically during Matt Rhule’s first season. Chubba Purdy came close to leading a game-winning drive thanks to the help of Emmett Johnson’s best game before the arrival of Dana Holgorsen. However, Purdy would become the third Husker to throw an interception that day, allowing the Terrapins to score a field goal as time expired.
The Huskers’ passing game couldn’t be more different from what it was two seasons ago. Dylan Raiola has been one of the top ten quarterbacks in the country this season, though he hasn’t been without flaws. Against Michigan State, he had a negative EPA* for the game. Yes, some of that was amplified by mistakes by his offensive line, leading to sacks, but there were other instances where he held the ball too long, also resulting in sacks.
*EPA (Expected Points Added) assigns a “point” value for each play to distribute scoring action to each play and not just the touchdown, field goal, etc.
The biggest takeaway from both Raiola and the Huskers last week is that they made a strong recovery. After an interception led to Michigan State taking the lead, he threw back-to-back incompletions. His 45-yard completion to Jacory Barney Jr is evident on Raiola’s EPA trend. A quarterback who can bounce back like that will keep the Huskers in any game.
However, he’s going to face his most challenging task yet against an opportunistic Maryland pass defense. The Terrapins rank 12th in the nation in EPA allowed per pass attempt. This is in part thanks to their six-interception opener against FAU. They’ve also intercepted one pass in each of the last three games, and currently sit in second in the nation for interceptions per game. This pass defense has bent, however. They rank 67th in passing yards allowed per game. Raiola could exploit the defense.
Malik Washington is the second true freshman quarterback Nebraska faces this season. He’s been off to a good start and leads the Big Ten in pass attempts. The Blackshirts will be his biggest challenge of the season. While Nebraska has only intercepted three passes this season, they have been a smothering defense. They rank 4th in EPA allowed per pass, second in completion percentage allowed, and 1st in passing yards allowed. They could be overwhelming to the young signal caller.
Emmett Johnson has been the Husker’s bell cow back, and he’s coming off one of the best games of his career. He’s leading the Big Ten in total touches this season. Nebraska is still struggling to find a backup running back, though, as Mekhi Nelson and Isaiah Mozee combined for just four carries last week. The Nebraska rushing attack may struggle this week. Maryland ranks 13th in success rate* allowed on opponent rushing attempts.
*Success rate is the percentage of plays where EPA is greater than 0 for the offense and less than 0 for the defense.
While the Huskers’ run defense has been bad in 2025, ranking 117th in rushing EPA allowed per play, the Maryland rushing offense is even worse, coming in at 131st in the country in EPA per play. Each of its top four rushers has a negative total EPA on the season. Their top three backs each average 3.5 yards per carry. The Terps haven’t made many big plays on the ground in 2025.
This could be another game decided by the Huskers’ special teams. Maryland punts the ball five times per game, the 24th most in the nation. They also rank 7th in yards per punt. On the flip side, Nebraska ranks 4th in the country in punt return yards per game with 47.6. Whoever wins this field position battle could win the game. After the Michigan State game, I will always side with Mike Ekeler’s unit.
The biggest concern for the Huskers in this matchup is the Terrapins’ pass rush. They’re tied for fourth in the country with 19 sacks in their first five games. Another true freshman leads the unit, Sidney Stewart, who has four sacks. No other underclassman in the country has more than two. The Huskers’ offensive line has taken a step back in each of the last two games. The reshuffled line needs to protect Raiola better, and Raiola needs to help out his line by getting the ball out faster.
These teams match up well with each other – strength on strength and weakness on weakness. Ultimately, the Huskers have the edge. Maryland has a one-dimensional offense, and Nebraska has a dominant pass defense. The Terrapin defense thrives on big plays: sacks and picks. Dana Holgorsen is a master offensive mind, and he should be able to scheme around those threats. Nebraska improves to 5-1 and wins 27-17.
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