NBA preview roundtable: Which teams face the most pressure this season?

The NBA’s regular season begins this week, and not a moment too soon. It’s finally time to see whether all those big offseason moves and promises of “internal development” justify teams’ high hopes.

Which team, if any, will challenge the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference? Which franchise faces the most pressure to win this season? And which team is most likely to exceed expectations?

To answer those questions and others, The Athletic has assembled three of its writers: James L. Edwards III, who covers the New York Knicks; Nick Friedell, who covers the Golden State Warriors, and Josh Robbins, who covers the Orlando Magic, Washington Wizards and the league as a whole.

Which team finishes the regular season first in the Eastern Conference standings, and why? 

James L. Edwards III: I’m going with the Cleveland Cavaliers. Despite their postseason shortcomings, they’re a talented, deep team with a continuity that should allow them to hit the ground running once the regular season starts. Adding Lonzo Ball was my sneaky-favorite pickup of the offseason. Obviously, his health is always a question, but he’s an upgrade over Ty Jerome (who was good for Cleveland) if he can stay on the court. I think New York could stumble out of the gate due to a new coach and completely new systems being implemented on both sides of the floor. But I do have the Knicks representing the East in the NBA Finals.

Nick Friedell: The Cavs. Kenny Atkinson gets that team to play hard. That’s a key component of racking up wins in the regular season that some teams lose sight of during the season: If they just play hard every game, they’ll earn a few more wins. Atkinson found that balance last season, and he should find it again with a group that should be motivated after getting bounced in the playoffs. Donovan Mitchell is a heck of a player. Evan Mobley will continue to get better. They will win a lot of games. I still don’t trust them in the playoffs, though.

Josh Robbins: I agree with James and Nick about Cleveland finishing the regular season first in the East, so I’m going to take this question in a different direction: Which team is going to finish second?

I think the Knicks will edge the Magic in a close race to the finish. New York is adjusting to a new coach but not new personnel other than Jordan Clarkson. Orlando has continuity with its coach but is blending in two key player acquisitions, Desmond Bane and Tyus Jones. They will pay dividends, but despite those players’ feel for the game and experience, I think it’ll take time for everyone to jell on the court.

This is a case where the cliché about the NBA’s regular season not mattering much falls flat. Winning home-court advantage for the playoffs’ first round and any second-round matchup will be crucial for the Magic, who over the last two years have gone 0-7 in road playoff games and 4-1 in home playoff games.

The defending NBA champion Thunder appear to be the clear favorite to finish the regular season first in the Western Conference. If you agree, which team will finish as runner-up in the West? 

Edwards: Denver. Nikola Jokić is still one of the two best players in the world. (He’s the best in my mind.) The team has depth again after a few years off. David Adelman appears to be a good coach. If The Joker can stay healthy, the Nuggets have the superstar, supporting talent, extra bodies and the altitude in their favor.

I want to give an honorable-mention shout-out to the Minnesota Timberwolves. Maybe it’s just stuff that I’m seeing online, but I feel like they’re not necessarily getting the respect warranted for a team that has made back-to-back Western Conference finals appearances. Anthony Edwards doesn’t miss games. Rudy Gobert really doesn’t miss games, either. Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo have a full year now in Minneapolis. They could grab the No. 2 seed, and it shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone.

Friedell: Denver. Jokić is still the best player in the game. The Nuggets have added to their roster, and they have the type of championship experience that teams won’t want to see in the playoffs. I think they’ll find a rhythm early this season and get rolling. I really like the addition of Cam Johnson and think he will help that group in a variety of different ways. Jokić just makes everybody else around him better. He still doesn’t get the credit he deserves, but that has never seemed to bother him. He’ll find a way to overpower your team each night — and that should get easier this year with a better cast of characters around him.

Robbins: We remember how the Nuggets extended the Thunder to seven games in the second round five months ago, and I expect the Nuggets to be the Thunder’s toughest Western Conference playoff foe again this spring. So yes, I consider Denver to be the West’s second-best team.

But that’s the postseason. This question concerns the regular season, and as many as seven teams could challenge for the West’s second seed. Parity (other than OKC, that is) makes the West captivating. I’m going here with the Timberwolves, because I envision Edwards taking another step forward individually, finishing top four in league MVP voting.

As long as Nikola Jokić is hurling passes, the Denver Nuggets should be the Oklahoma City Thunder’s toughest obstacle to repeating as Western Conference champions, our panelists argue. (Bob Frid / Imagn Images)

Which team do you think faces the most pressure to achieve this year, both in the regular season and the playoffs? 

Edwards: The Milwaukee Bucks. This Giannis Antetokounmpo stuff always felt like smoke before, but now we are starting to see some fire there. It sounds like he just wants to be in the conversation, to play basketball beyond the first round of the playoffs, and the weirdness regarding his future might fizzle away. Milwaukee has lost in the first round of the playoffs three years in a row. Three years in a row. That just can’t happen this season. It feels like, more than ever, Milwaukee needs to have a deep-ish run to avoid losing not only the face of its franchise but one of the best three players in the NBA. The outside world — including myself — doesn’t have grand expectations for the Bucks, but I can only imagine how pulsating the pressure is inside that building.

Friedell: The Knicks. They have a talented, expensive roster filled with players who should be even better together after a year of working in some new pieces. They booted Tom Thibodeau for Mike Brown, and they play in the biggest media market with a massive spotlight. If they can’t be better this year after making the moves they’ve made, when is it going to happen? If they can’t make their way through a depleted East as Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton recover from injury, when will it ever happen?

Robbins: The Warriors face a different kind of pressure from the pressure the Bucks and Knicks face. In Milwaukee, whether real or imagined, there’s that existential threat of losing Antetokounmpo to a large-market team. In New York, there’s the constant bombardment of “Will the Knicks ever win another title?”

Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Steve Kerr have nothing left to prove. After their four NBA titles together and the successes in the Olympics, their legacies are as secure as anyone’s in the NBA right now, other than LeBron James’. Heck, Jimmy Butler doesn’t have much left to prove anymore, either, not after he sparked the Miami Heat to two Finals appearances.

Golden State’s pressure stems from its ticking career clocks. Curry will turn 38 before this season’s playoffs begin. Green will be 36. Butler turned 36 last month. As effective as they still are, it’s not reasonable to expect them to remain at their current high levels much longer. This spring won’t be their last hope to win one more championship, but it probably will be their best remaining chance.

Which team is most likely to exceed expectations, either in the regular season or the postseason?

Edwards: Detroit. If you told me the Pistons will end up in the Eastern Conference finals, it wouldn’t be a total surprise. Cade Cunningham is going to be a top-five player in the East. The defense — led by Isaiah Stewart and Ausar Thompson — should be really good once again. Detroit got a taste last year and performed well. Furthermore, outside of the Knicks and Cavaliers, the Pistons and Atlanta Hawks might have the best combination of good offense and good defense. Orlando can hit a peak defensively that I don’t believe the other non-Cleveland contenders can hit, but I’m not sure only adding Bane will turn them into a top-12 offense.

The Pistons could be a top-15 offense and a top-10 defense. The same can be said for the Hawks, but when it comes to Atlanta, it’s fair to worry about the availability of the key players it’s recently added. Kristaps Porziņģis is often hurt. It’s not uncommon for Luke Kennard, who was a great addition, to miss 20-plus games in a season. If Cunningham can stay healthy like he was last season, Thompson takes a leap offensively and Caris LeVert and Duncan Robinson can exceed or meet the Malik Beasley-Tim Hardaway Jr. production, the Pistons probably have the highest ceiling of teams not playing in Cleveland or New York.

Friedell: Portland. The Trail Blazers have been mired in NBA irrelevance for much of the last few years, but Chauncey Billups has a long and athletic group this season, as well as some young players — like Shaedon Sharpe — who appear poised to take a leap within their respective games. Jrue Holiday should provide a veteran, stabilizing presence for the team, and Jerami Grant can still put up some numbers each night. Yang Hansen has at least given some more publicity to a once proud franchise. For a team that hasn’t had many expectations at all recently, it has a chance to push for a Play-In berth with signs of more hope on the horizon.

Robbins: Fred VanVleet’s injury obviously hurts the Houston Rockets, but I think they still will finish the regular season within the West’s top four. Amen Thompson already is one of the league’s top perimeter defenders, and I think he’ll take a leap this year on offense even if his 3-point shooting remains subpar. Alperen Şengün is one of those players who probably isn’t on the national radar as much as he should be. And of course, Houston added Kevin Durant this offseason. Even without VanVleet, I expect Houston to be better on offense because of Durant and because the team traded two streaky players for him. I’ll never count out Ime Udoka’s ability to get the most out of his teams during the regular season, especially on the defensive end.

Cade Cunningham and the Detroit Pistons had a breakthrough season in 2024-25, and they’re determined to take another step in the months ahead. (Benny Sieu / Imagn Images)

Which team is most likely to disappoint, either in the regular season or the postseason? 

Edwards: The Bucks. While I think they face the most pressure to succeed, I also don’t think the roster is very good. Who is the ballhandler outside of Antetokounmpo? Can Kyle Kuzma give them anything? Unless Antetokounmpo has the best individual season in NBA history, one that seeps into the postseason, this team feels like a first- or second-round exit to me, at best. Now, the East is in a fragile spot, even at the top: The Cavaliers routinely flame out in the postseason, and the Knicks have a new coach.

It wouldn’t shock me if the Bucks end up in the Eastern Conference finals. If you told me no one on Earth can guard Antetokounmpo, Myles Turner is a monster rim protector/knockdown shooter and they get enough shooting from the other guys, I could believe it to an extent. The role players on this team, though, give me the biggest pause. There are guys I like — hello, Bobby Portis and Gary Trent Jr. — but the depth is very uninspiring otherwise.

Friedell: The Bucks. They aren’t good enough to win a title, and once that fact materializes again, the next question becomes how much longer will Antetokounmpo stay? He’s the man who has made them relevant for years. If he ever decides to leave, uh oh — which is why their season is set up to disappoint on several levels. The questions about his future aren’t going away. They will be asked over and over again throughout the year, and it will wear on everybody within the organization. Turner will help the group, and Antetokounmpo is still playing at a very high level, but it is very rare in the league for a team to be able to block out that kind of noise about the future. The only thing that can do it is winning — and even then, it may not be enough. The Bucks simply aren’t good enough to overcome all that.

Robbins: Thanks to its lottery luck, the Dallas Mavericks have long-term hope after its still-baffling Luka Dončić trade. Cooper Flagg will keep the Mavericks relevant after the competitive window shuts for the trio of Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson. But I think Irving’s recovery from knee surgery this season will put Dallas too far behind the eight ball. No one seems to be saying that Dallas will contend this season, but it’s possible Dallas will find itself on the road for the start of the West Play-In.