This is an opinion column
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (“BLS”) jobs report for July found “little change” since April, that non-farm payroll jobs increased by just 73,000 and the unemployment rate worsened to 4.2%, Meanwhile, May’s estimated job gains were “revised down by 125,000 (from +144,000 to +19,000)” and “June was revised down by 133,000, from +147,000 to +14,000”.
The report suggests a deteriorating jobs market and reflects poorly on President Trump’s tariff tax hikes and economic policies.
Trump responded by doing what Trump does: goes ballistic, acts impulsively, attacks the messenger, and spews falsehoods.
Trump fired the messenger, BLS Commissioner Dr. Erika McEntarfer, who had been supported for the job by Sen. Katie Britt and Sen. Tommy Tuberville, now-Vice President J.D. Vance, now-Trump Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and 34 other GOP U.S. Senators.
Trump, without any proof, derided the BLS jobs report by stating:
- The jobs report is “A SCAM.”
- “(McEntarfer) had the biggest miscalculations in over 50 years.” Trump’s statement is demonstrably false. The May 125,000 and June 133,000 revisions pale in comparison to the March 2020 679,000 revision.
- “Today’s Jobs Numbers were RIGGED in order to make Republicans, and ME, look bad.”
Trump’s firing of McEntarfer and venomous attacks on a BLS jobs report yields only two possibilities:
Either America’s economic data is wrong and manipulated for political gain (as Trump claims), or America’s president is lying and undermining the credibility of critical federal economic data for his own personal, political benefit.
Both possibilities are bad. Very bad.
Jobs Report’s Critical Importance
By way of background, I graduated in 3 years from Duke University with Distinction in Economics. I’ve looked at BLS jobs reports for decades and am familiar with how the reports are created.
Federal jobs reports, like federal inflation and gross domestic product reports, are critical to America’s decision-makers.
Almost all city, county, state, and federal government officials budget based on expected tax revenues, which are estimated based on past years’ tax revenues plus federal economic data like jobs reports. Bad economic reports cause bad government budgets and bad things like sudden cuts to public school budgets.
The Federal Reserve relies on federal economic data to influence interest rates that, in turn, determine the affordability of homes, cars, industrial equipment and the like.
Employers across America make hiring and firing decisions based on federal economic data. Pessimistic economic data, or good economic data that is distrusted because of caustic attacks like Trump’s, cause layoffs and refusals to hire.
I cannot stress how important it is that federal economic reports be accurate and walled off from corrupting political influence.
How Jobs Reports Are Made
Simply stated (there’s more to it), the BLS’s roughly 2,000 employees collect data from a “Home Survey” (citizens) and a “Current Employment Statistics Survey” (560,000 employers: businesses, governments, etc.).
The survey results are then consolidated into monthly jobs reports.
There are three jobs reports for each month. The first July report was preliminary and issued on the first Friday in August, the second July report will be a month later, and the final July report a month after that. Hence, one specific month’s final jobs data is accumulated and reported over a three-month period.
Revised jobs reports reflect data that trickles in over that three-month time-period. The later the report, the more accurate it is because first month report data is roughly 70% complete while final report data is roughly 95% complete.
Thus, the BLS July jobs report released on August 1 included June’s first revision and May’s final report.
Republican Responses to Trump’s Tirade
What’s unusual about Trump’s July jobs report tantrum is that, for the first time in Trump’s second term, numerous notable Republicans are stating the truth and publicly chastising Trump’s juvenile antics.
William Beach, Trump’s first term BLS Commissioner, states:
- “There’s no way (a BLS Commissioner can fudge the jobs report numbers). The commissioner doesn’t do anything to collect the numbers. The commissioner doesn’t see the numbers until Wednesday before they’re published. By the time the commissioner sees the numbers, they’re all prepared.”
- “The totally groundless firing of Dr. Erika McEntarfer, my successor as Commissioner of Labor Statistics at BLS, sets a dangerous precedent and undermines the statistical mission of the Bureau.”
- “(Trump) accused BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer of deliberately reporting false numbers to reflect poorly on this administration. This baseless, damaging claim undermines the valuable work and dedication of BLS staff who produce the reports each month. … The President seeks to blame someone for unwelcome economic news. The Commissioner does not determine what the numbers are but simply reports on what the data show. The process of obtaining the numbers is decentralized by design to avoid opportunities for interference.”
“Impetuous”
Sen. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyoming, said, “It’s not the statistician’s fault if the numbers are accurate and that they’re not what the president had hoped for.” Firing McEntarfer was “impetuous.”
“Grow up”
Sen. Thom Tillis, R-North Carolina, adds: “If she was just fired because the president or whoever decided to fire the director just … because they didn’t like the numbers, they ought to grow up.”
“Statistics won’t be politicized.”
Sen. Rand Paul. R-Kentucky, said, “When the people providing the statistics are fired, it makes it much harder to make judgments that you know, the statistics won’t be politicized. … “You can’t really make the numbers different or better by firing the people doing the counting.”
False propaganda can’t be tolerated
America must never be like the Soviet Union, Communist China or 1930s Germany and neither Trump nor the White House should ever be America’s version of false propaganda-spewing Pravda.
Politically motivated, false propaganda must never be tolerated and allowed to thrive in America.
President Trump must put up or shut up!
If there is compelling evidence that the July jobs report is false, President Trump must present it.
If there is no evidence, if the July jobs report was fairly-compiled and published, then Trump must stop lying about it, fess up, and apologize.
That’s what an honorable person of good character would do.
Doing nothing is not an option because Trump’s coercive firing threats risk undermining future economic data America’s policy makers need to make wise decisions that benefit us all.
Mo Brooks served on the House Armed Services Committee for 12 years and the Foreign Affairs Committee for 6 years. Brooks graduated from Duke University in 3 years with a double major in political science and economics (highest honors in economics).
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