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Trade deadline week is finally here.
And so is the third and final version of The Athletic’s Urgency Index — our look at which teams need a boost the most over the next four days. It’s been fascinating to see the ways this list has evolved since it first ran on June 12 and again on July 2. Each time, for instance, the team that needed a bat the most acquired one: San Francisco brought in Rafael Devers, and Seattle traded for Josh Naylor. (We have a good feeling we’ll go 3-for-3 on that one.)
Like each of the last two times, it’s Tim Britton breaking down bats, Eno Sarris on starters and Aaron Gleeman on relievers.
Bats
The void in San Diego’s left field could fill, I don’t know, something the size of a warehouse. The Padres rank 28th in left-field production this season, which has improved since they moved Gavin Sheets there from DH. Problem is, their DHs now rank 29th in production across the majors. The Padres have scored two runs or fewer 11 times in the past month.
The bad news is San Diego desperately needs to add a bat to that mix, and desperation isn’t a great look in late July. The good news is that the bar is so low for improvement that the Padres’ lineup will look much better with even a league-average bat in left. The Friars could look to upgrade behind the plate as well.
If you check out the major-league leaders in offense in July, the Astros remain a Top 10 outfit. So why do they rank so highly here? The injury to Isaac Paredes might prove to be one too many maladies to overcome. Paredes joins Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Peña and Jake Meyers as key bats on the IL. And according to manager Joe Espada, Paredes’ hamstring strain is “pretty significant.”
Houston could especially use a left-handed bat; no team in the majors has had fewer plate appearances from lefty hitters, and as Chandler Rome pointed out, that also means the Astros’ right-handed hitters seldom see lefty pitching. While Houston has some flexibility with where to add, the best left-handed bat likely to move on this market, Baltimore’s Ryan O’Hearn, is an imperfect fit. Tampa Bay’s Brandon Lowe, Baltimore’s Cedric Mullins and Miami’s Jesús Sánchez are other lefty bats who could be dealt in the coming days.
Way back on June 12, when we did this exercise the first time, we wrote, “Right now, no, Detroit doesn’t need another bat. In 50ish days? We wouldn’t be surprised.”
Surprise!
The Tigers have been a bottom-two offense in July, ahead of only the Pirates in OPS. Javier Báez, now back at shortstop, has taken a step back at the same time as Trey Sweeney, and the guys now playing center in Báez’s place are all slumping. One more bat capable of helping out either in center or on the left side of the infield should permit manager A.J. Hinch to field a deeper lineup on a daily basis.
The Mets’ main issues are at third base (24th in the majors in OPS) and center field (29th). At the moment, they’re disinclined to add externally at third, believing some combination of Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and Ronny Mauricio can acquit itself there. In center, Jeff McNeil’s on-the-fly transition has helped, but playing McNeil in center leaves open another hole at second. Oh, both their veteran DHs have recently been on the IL.
Trusting one position to that trio of young players is one thing, trusting two or three is riskier for a team with the Mets’ aspirations. Adding a league-average bat who can handle center would simplify things for manager Carlos Mendoza.
Shohei Ohtani is Shohei Ohtani, Andy Páges has broken out, and Will Smith is having the most overlooked monster season by a catcher in memory. (Thanks a lot, Cal Raleigh.) But those developments can’t fully mitigate a seriously subpar year from Mookie Betts, a step back by Freddie Freeman and Michael Conforto’s nightmare season in left.
As with some other teams on this list, the Dodgers possess enough defensive flexibility that they don’t need to add at any one specific position. (It’s probably easiest in the corner outfield, though.) One more bat would get this lineup back to the well-oiled machine it needed to be last year to win a championship.
Honorable mention:
Texas Rangers,
Tampa Bay Rays,
San Francisco Giants,
Milwaukee Brewers
Starting pitchers
An ERA near three over the last month and the return of Shota Imanaga might make this situation feel less dire, but there are still some warning signs that suggest the Cubs need a starting pitcher (and maybe more than one) more urgently than any other playoff contender. That ERA, for one, has not been supported by peripherals, and their strikeout-minus-walk rate was 20th-best in the last 30 days. And though Imanaga’s velocity sometimes oscillates, last time out he sat under 90 mph for the first time in his MLB career.
If you look at a projection system that uses stuff under the hood, you’ll see that the Cubs rotation is 25th best going forward. The team’s top three starters would be worst or second worst in the playoffs no matter what projection system you use. The Cubs could use a front-end starter and maybe also a back-end arm to shore up this staff.
The last month in Queens has exposed some of the worries that projections had pointed out for a while now. The Mets rotation has the 18th-best ERA over the last month, the 22nd-best strikeout-minus-walk rate, and the 20th-best WAR. David Peterson has been the only reliable option week-in and week-out. With Clay Holmes so far out in front of his past innings totals, there has to be some question there even if you like the talent.
Sean Manaea coming back has been good news, but the velocity isn’t all the way back. Kodai Senga also came back with reduced velo. FanGraphs’ depth charts have the Mets as the 18th best going forward even with these guys, and their top three options as 16th best. New York could make an impact on its rotation with an arm of any quality, really.
The Blue Jays rotation is OK. Over the last month, it has had an ERA near four with good peripherals (the fifth-best strikeout-minus-walk rate) and the 10th-best Wins Above Replacement. Going forward, FanGraphs has the group as the 16th best by WAR. There are credible veterans on this squad who know how to pitch.
But for a team that will lose some key players in the offseason, and has others who are definitively past their peaks, it’s worth wondering if they should seize the opportunity they have right now. This is not a rotation with outstanding stuff – could an Edward Cabrera make sense? Lightning in a bottle? A kid with a 96 mph changeup?
Boston has played its way into the playoff picture, thanks in huge part to its lineup, which has been a top-three unit over the last month. Its rotation has been OK, with the sixth-best ERA, ninth-best WAR, and 12th-best strikeout-minus-walk rate, but it still has a shaky back end. Richard Fitts has some intriguing stuff but hasn’t solidified himself as a major league starter yet, and Walker Buehler is one of the most inconsistent starters in the big leagues.
Its top three projects to be the fifth best in baseball, so maybe the Red Sox don’t have to shop at the top of the market. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t any urgency to add an arm to better take advantage of this team-wide surge.
Michael King is on his way back. Dylan Cease just put together his best two-start stretch this year and has been killing it all season by strikeouts and walks. Nick Pivetta gives them a fine third starter in a playoff situation.
It’s time to worry about Yu Darvish, who has come back with reduced stuff and a lack of command that has not produced results. Stephen Kolek did throw 140-plus innings in 2022, but there might be some worry of fatigue down the stretch for the re-converted starter. And Randy Vasquez has the widest gap between peripherals and results in baseball. A back-end starter makes sense for San Diego.
Honorable mention:
New York Yankees,
Houston Astros,
Los Angeles Dodgers,
Seattle Mariners
Relief pitchers
New York’s bullpen has collapsed in July, ranking No. 29 out of 30 teams in both ERA (7.10) and Win Probability Added (minus-1.9), including a 10-run implosion Friday that likely sent a pretty strong message to the front office that significant relief help is needed.
With at most three trusted relievers in Devin Williams, Luke Weaver and Tim Hill, the Yankees could be shopping at the top of the reliever market. And with Williams and Weaver both impending free agents, the Yankees could look to target a late-inning arm under team control beyond this season.
On one hand, signing 40-year-old David Robertson to a two-month, $6 million deal adds much-needed reinforcements to the Phillies’ bullpen. On the other hand, that’s seemingly not the type of move that will close the door on the pursuit of relief help for a team that has featured prominently on all three versions of this index.
Philadelphia’s bullpen ranks 22nd in ERA (4.27) and 25th in WPA (0.4), and no other contending team is 20th or worse in both categories. Dave Dombrowski has a long history of targeting meaningful bullpen upgrades at the deadline, so Robertson may simply be the start of relief moves.
Detroit’s bullpen ERA has gotten substantially worse each month, going from 2.90 in April and 3.87 in May to 4.44 in June and 6.10 in July. In particular, the lack of late-inning arms with bat-missing raw stuff stands out as an obvious weakness for the playoffs, as the Tigers’ bullpen has the AL’s lowest strikeout rate overall.
It’s possible the Tigers could pursue a high-end, team-controlled reliever to build around beyond this year, although complicating matters is that several of the most appealing targets on the market belong to the division rival Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians.
Despite a bunch of recent losses, the Dodgers have the benefit of knowing they’ll be headed to the playoffs, so they can pursue bullpen help looking for an October impact rather than merely depth to get through the regular season. That means big names should be in play, with plenty of money and prospect capital to work with.
Even if the Dodgers are confident injured relievers Tanner Scott, Blake Treinen and Michael Kopech will be part of the playoff picture, pursuing high-end relief help is a no-brainer given the rest of the roster and the risk of letting late-inning issues ruin Los Angeles’ title defense.
Tampa Bay’s success over the past decade-plus has largely been built on excellent bullpens, but this year is a different story. Rays relievers rank in the middle of the pack with a 3.93 ERA, but even that is their worst mark as a team since 2016. And their minus-1.8 WPA, which ranks 27th in MLB, is their worst mark since 2007.
At minimum, the Rays seem likely to pursue an under-the-radar reliever, with the goal of turning him into a reliable high-leverage option. But the always creative Rays could also dip their toes in the deep end and take a bigger swing at one of the most prominent names in the reliever market.
Honorable mention:
Toronto Blue Jays,
Seattle Mariners,
New York Mets
(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos: Gregory Fisher / Icon Sportswire, Ishika Samant, Jasen Vinlove / Getty Images)
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