By Grant Brisbee, Chad Jennings and Levi Weaver
Every week, we ask a selected group of our baseball writers — local and national — to rank the teams from first to worst. Here are the collective results.
Ah, the start of the second half. Inexperienced baseball fans pay far too much attention to the first week of the season, but the seasoned nerds among us know that it’s the first week of the second half that deserves outsized scrutiny and complaints. There’s a gap of almost a full week between real games, which builds the anticipation up like a kinked garden hose. And then, whammo, all the baseball you can handle, and now every game means twice as much. It feels that way, at least.
Let’s rank powers and see who is up and down to start the second half.
Record: 60-41
Last Power Ranking: 2
Second-half storyline: How many of these breakout seasons will last?
Twenty-two players have taken at least one plate appearance for the Detroit Tigers this year. Of those 22, seven are on pace for (or have already surpassed) their career high in bWAR.
Of those who have not, you have Riley Greene, who is on pace for 4.4 bWAR (still pretty good!) and Javier Báez, for whom — after the last couple of years — “on pace for 3.2 bWAR” feels kind of like a miracle.
Let’s do the pitchers: 23 (not counting position players) have thrown at least one pitch for Detroit. Of those, you have nine on pace for new career highs. To be fair, that number includes some first-year rookies, but it also includes Tarik Skubal, who won the AL Cy Young Award last year.
Of the pitchers who aren’t on pace for career highs? Casey Mize, who had a pretty good 2021 but has been mostly derailed by injuries since. Like Báez, his “on pace for” 2.4 WAR seems like a big win for Detroit. — Levi Weaver
Record: 59-41
Last Power Ranking: 4
Second-half storyline: Now if they can just stick the landing…
The Cubs have had a lot of things go right in the first half: Pete Crow-Armstrong is a legitimate star, Matthew Boyd is an All-Star, Seiya Suzuki is roughing up opposing pitchers; literally Drew Pomeranz — who, again, last pitched in the big leagues in 2021 — is pitching like a bullpen bully.
They’ve also had some bad luck. Justin Steele is out for the year. Shota Imanaga has also spent some time on the IL. Matt Shaw hasn’t fully blossomed. Ian Happ has been good-but-not-great as a leadoff hitter.
And Crow-Armstrong was sidelined with a bruised knee a few days after rejoining his team post-All-Star Game. He’s being evaluated on a daily basis.
So it has to feel good to come out of the gate in the second half by winning two of three, laying claim to the best record in the National L— excuse me, what are you guys doing here?!?! — Weaver
Record: 59-42
Last Power Ranking: 1
Second-half storyline: Just how much can they get out of Shohei Ohtani (the pitcher)?
Before the season started, the idea of Ohtani returning to the mound for the Dodgers seemed like a quaint midseason development. Certainly, they weren’t going to need him, and they could use him however they wanted.
Then 80 percent of their rotation fell into a wheat thresher, and suddenly he’s looking like the best option to start one of the first two games of a postseason series. He just needs to ramp up his strength and go through the command funkiness that every Tommy John recovery comes with.
No pressure. But also, all of the pressure. Let’s get stretched out, and don’t stop hitting dingers along the way. — Grant Brisbee
Record: 60-40
Last Power Ranking: 10
Second-half storyline: Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy?
There’s a philosophical belief that all pain and suffering comes from the inability to let go or release. Whether that be hopes and dreams, people, possessions, desires — the need to cling to whatever you believe will bring you fulfillment is where the problem begins, and true enlightenment comes from understanding the temporal nature of all things, and your relationship to all things (which is also temporal).
If you can explain what the Brewers are doing in any simpler terms, I invite you to fill in for me next time I’m responsible for their blurb in these Power Rankings.
In last Friday’s Windup, I added up the bWAR of 12 former Brewers around the league, and it added up to 14.5 bWAR, or — at the time — the combination of Aaron Judge (7.1) Shohei Ohtani (4.3) and Jacob deGrom (3.1).
So maybe they’ve figured out something the rest of us haven’t. Or maybe they’ll crash and burn in the second half. For now, after Monday’s win over the Mariners, they have the best record in baseball, and it’s blowing my mind. — Weaver
Record: 57-43
Last Power Ranking: 3
Second-half storyline: Is this the year?
The Phillies have been one of the best teams in baseball the past three years, and they’re making it four in a row this season. Once again, the Phillies have arguably the best rotation in baseball; their offensive trio of Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Trea Turner is also among the best. According to FanGraphs, only the Dodgers have meaningfully better World Series odds. But the past three seasons have ended in disappointment, and the Phillies have been eliminated earlier and earlier in the postseason. This is a championship-or-bust era for the Phillies. They’ve been very good, but they’re still missing a ring. Is this the year it changes? And how aggressive will they be at the deadline in pursuit of a championship? — Chad Jennings
Record: 55-45
Last Power Ranking: 7
Second-half storyline: What does “going to town” mean?
A little before the All-Star break, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman addressed the team’s approach to the trade deadline by saying, “We’re going to town. We’re going to do everything we possibly can to improve ourselves and try to match up.” With the Yankees, “going to town” can mean a pretty big splash. Their farm system isn’t great, but they’re always a threat to take on salary to make big-ticket acquisitions possible. They’ve also been, at times, really good this season (at other times, maddeningly inconsistent). Undoubtedly, the Yankees will do something, and probably something substantial. But will it be enough to make them World Series favorites down the stretch? Clearly, they need help. The Yankees got back to the World Series last year but haven’t won a championship since 2009. — Jennings
Record: 59-41
Last Power Ranking: 8
Second-half storyline: Is this team this good?
Pretty basic question, really, but the Blue Jays are a puzzle. A 10-game winning streak in the weeks before the All-Star break boosted them into first place, but as of late May, they were a sub-.500 team with a roughly 70 percent chance of missing the playoffs. Even now, their run differential is somewhere between that of the Reds and Giants, which isn’t exactly elite company. The Yankees, Rays and Red Sox have been far better at outscoring their opponents. To be in first place in the AL East is impressive, and usually a sign of a legitimate World Series contender. Should we really think of the Blue Jays that way? And can they do something at the trade deadline to convince us one way or the other? — Jennings
Record: 58-42
Last Power Ranking: 5
Second-half storyline: Will there be an AL West race?
For a second, it looked like the Astros were going to run away with the sucker, leading by as many as seven games in the week before the All-Star break. A brutal homestand against the Guardians and Rangers, followed by a series loss against the Mariners on the road, has changed the calculus. The Mariners aren’t nipping at their heels, but they’re close enough to start tensing their jaw muscles.
They’ll need deadline help, and it’ll probably be on the offensive side, even though they have nearly a full rotation on the 60-day IL. They’ll worry about the pitching, but someone else is going to bring the hitting. — Brisbee
Record: 57-44
Last Power Ranking: 6
Second-half storyline: Is the rotation good enough?
As of June 13, the Mets had the second-best record in baseball — best in the National League — in large part because of their rotation, which was elite with a 2.78 ERA. No other big league rotation had an ERA below 3.00. Kodai Senga was the league leader in ERA at that point, with David Peterson and Clay Holmes also in the top 20. But the Mets’ rotation stumbled in the second half of June and into the All-Star break. Its ERA jumped to 5.31 with Senga and Tylor Megill hurt. Now, Senga is healthy again, Sean Manaea is finally active and Peterson is a first-time All-Star.
With Holmes and Frankie Montas, do the Mets have enough starting pitching? If not, does this trade market have the front-end arm that could make a significant difference? — Jennings
Record: 54-48
Last Power Ranking: 14
Second-half storyline: Is their outfield a wasted logjam or valuable depth?
This storyline could extend into the offseason, but in the short term, it’s a fascinating factor in the team’s approach to the trade deadline and the final analysis of all that comes after. The Red Sox are an interesting but imperfect team (as evidenced by their stunning Rafael Devers trade in June). They need pitching (again), their first baseman is hurt (again), and their middle infield is a weird combination of talent without immediate results. But their outfield is overflowing, especially since the arrival of top prospect Roman Anthony to play alongside Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela.
The Red Sox could trade from that depth to address a more glaring need. If they do, and someone gets hurt, they’ll look suddenly thin. If they don’t and miss the playoffs, they will have perhaps missed an opportunity to improve. The ball’s in your court, Craig Breslow. — Jennings
Record: 53-47
Last Power Ranking: 13
Second-half storyline: Forget the all-time record for catchers — can Big Dumper get to 60 homers?
Salvador Pérez holds the record for 48 catcher home runs, a record he set in 2021. Cal Raleigh is just 10 homers behind that with more than 60 games to go. Assuming regular health, that’s a record that’s as good as broken.
Can he get to 60, though? That’s much trickier. Every slugger hits a dry patch; Raleigh’s just hasn’t come yet. Maybe it’ll never come, and he’s certainly on pace. Another storyline to watch is with the Mariners’ postseason chase, but in a way, that’s a part of the same storyline. — Brisbee
Record: 52-49
Last Power Ranking: 9
Second-half storyline: Is Shane McClanahan the sport’s biggest trade deadline addition?
No one is suggesting the Rays are going to trade McClanahan, but they should get him back off the IL right around the trade deadline. That’s a potential ace joining a team on the playoff bubble. And if McClanahan is at his best, he could push the Rays into a wild card spot with a rotation that should worry everyone — McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot, Zack Littell, Shane Baz — along with a sneaky good offense that’s top five in the AL in runs per game. Adding a homegrown ace to fuel a second-half playoff run would be one of the most Rays things imaginable. And it could happen (or they could sell at the deadline and try again next year). — Jennings
Record: 55-45
Last Power Ranking: 11
Second-half storyline: Where are the runs going to come from?
The Padres are a sneaky-awful offensive team. They’re ranked 24th in adjusted OPS (OPS+) and have an unadjusted OPS under .700. They’ve hit just 86 home runs, which is behind the Marlins, Giants and, gasp, Rockies. This is pretty remarkable, considering that Manny Machado and Fernando Tatís Jr. have each hit 16 homers or more.
They’ll hope to get those dingers from Xander Bogaerts, in year X of a billion-year contract, and Jackson Merrill, who is still growing into his power. The real cavalry might come at the deadline, though. You know A.J. Preller won’t be idle. — Brisbee
Record: 52-49
Last Power Ranking: 12
Second-half storyline: Is Rafael Devers OK?
One thing we know about Devers: He has an emotional component to his game. His displeasure with his old organization bled into the start of the regular season, and he was striking out at a record-setting pace. Then he turned his season around with a lot of thumping. Sometimes it takes a bit for his head to clear. – Brisbee
This is hardly sabermetrics, but it sure seems like he’s in a similar funk with the Giants, who acquired him to single-handedly fix the offense. They were polite about it, but quite insistent. The pressure hasn’t helped him, and he’s been a dud in his limited time in San Francisco. Back and leg problems might be the culprit more than brain problems, but either way, the Giants still need him. That hasn’t changed. — Brisbee
Record: 51-50
Last Power Ranking: 17
Second-half storyline: Regression works both ways, doesn’t it?
The pitching has been extremely good. Maybe a little too good. It wouldn’t surprise me if they came back down to earth just a little bit in the second half.
The hitting has been extremely bad. Maybe a little too bad. It wouldn’t surprise me if they came back to life just a little bit in the second half.
The problem is that if both of these things happen, it’s not going to change their outcome much after a disappointing first half. For this season to be a success in Texas, they will need one order of regression to the mean (offense), hold the regression to the mean (pitching).
And it’s probably going to need to happen fast. The deadline is nigh. — Weaver
Record: 50-51
Last Power Ranking: 16
Second-half storyline: Will they be sellers at the deadline?
As always, the Golden Rule of Selling is in play: If you have a lot of good players to trade in a selling effort, it’s possible that you have a sneakily good team and don’t need to rebuild at all. Patience is more valuable in those situations than prospects.
The Diamondbacks are on the fringes of the wild-card race, and they have a lot of pending free agents, so they could go either way. Don’t think of it as a rebuild, but an early start to free agency, just with more prospects. This is the likeliest course, but we’re still at a stage of the season where a hot week could change everything. — Brisbee
Record: 52-49
Last Power Ranking: 18
Second-half storyline: Will they learn from the past two deadlines?
If you’re not a Reds fan, you might not have noticed that the Reds were pretty good when the deadline came in 2023. They made some minor moves, but nothing splashy, and finished two games out of a wild-card position. Last year, they had a losing record at the deadline, didn’t do much, and faded down the stretch, finishing 12 games out.
This year is a weird combination of both. Yes, their record is 52-49 but they’re only one spot (and 3.5 games) out of the final wild-card position. Will GM Nick Krall seize an opportunity to make a second-half run, or will the team slow-play it again, hoping to build for progress in 2026? — Weaver
Record: 52-49
Last Power Ranking: 15
Second-half storyline: What kind of team are they?
Hot, cold, hot, cold, hot, cold. Pick an identity, you freaks. The Cardinals got obliterated in their first series out of the break, getting blown out by a Diamondbacks team looking to reestablish itself as a contender. The Cardinals would like to do that, too, building on some of those wins they banked in May.
They just might be a mediocre team, though. They have five starters who have made all but two of their starts this season (good) and they all have an ERA over 4.00 (bad). They could go for it, but in the service of what goal? This is the franchise and fan base that knows better than anyone else that every postseason has a Jered Weaver, and you just need to get there to find out who it is. Easier said than done. — Brisbee
Record: 49-50
Last Power Ranking: 22
Second-half storyline: Will we see Chase DeLauter this year?
Could the Guardians get hot and leapfrog five teams in the second half to make it into the playoffs? Sure, it’s mathematically possible. But it’s not probable enough to make it my second-half storyline.
Instead, I’m curious if we’ll get to see DeLauter, who was ripping it up in Triple A before a hand injury that may have delayed a big-league call-up. He’s seeing a hand specialist, so when he’s healthy, we’ll get to see if he extends his on-base streak in Columbus (34 games) or if he’ll get a chance to start a new one in Cleveland.
Beyond that, the Guardians appear to be slowly sinking into a light sell-off at the deadline. — Weaver
Record: 48-52
Last Power Ranking: 19
Second-half storyline: At what point will we have seen enough?
It was technically less than a week ago when Dan Hayes’ second-half storylines article ran with a headline asking if the Twins were buyers or sellers.
Well, they’re 5-5 in their last 10 games, which doesn’t really scream one or the other, but two of those losses were to the Rockies, sooooo it seems like maybe we have our answer? Probably?
These are the Twins, though — just as likely to catch a good vibes wave and ride it to a 10-game winning streak as they are to (metaphorically) put their phones on silent and spend a week in bed while the bills pile up.
As fun as it would be to see them hit one of those hot streaks in the playoffs, I just don’t think this squad has the juice. So when does the front office pull the plug? — Weaver
Record: 49-52
Last Power Ranking: 21
Second-half storyline: Who sticks around for next year?
Last year, the Royals made the playoffs. They had a sneaky-busy offseason, headlined by the acquisition of Jonathan India from the Reds — finally, a leadoff hitter to get on base ahead of Bobby Witt Jr.
India entered last night’s action with an on-base percentage of .328, or exactly the same as Eugenio Suárez (but about 250 points lower on slugging).
On the upside, Maikel García seems to have put it together, making his first All-Star team and finally turning all that hard contact into productive numbers.
Barring some miracle, the Royals won’t be repeating last year’s October performance. These games are for sussing out the future. Fortunately for the Royals, they can know this in time to make some trades and bolster the farm system, rather than waiting until mid-August to find out. — Weaver
Record: 44-55
Last Power Ranking: 20
Second-half storyline: Are two catchers too many?
The story of this Braves season seems already written. They’re disappointments. Maybe the biggest disappointments in baseball. If they can change that in the second half, it’ll be one of the most exciting storylines in the game. But let’s not count on that one. Instead, the Braves are probably doing to do some version of selling at the trade deadline Will they trade veteran catcher Sean Murphy, or keep him and find at-bats for both Murphy and rookie Drake Baldwin (in which case, they could trade DH Marcell Ozuna)? This still looks like a talented roster. But what’s it going to look like come Aug, 1, and how is that going to impact our expectations heading into 2026? — Jennings
Record: 49-51
Last Power Ranking: 23
Second-half storyline: What will they get at the deadline?
There was a hot minute in April when it looked like Mike Trout had a shot at a second postseason series. Alas. They’re not without players to trade, though. They’ll keep onto the young players, of course, but they have relievers to interest the masses, from closer Kenley Jansen to lefty Reid Detmers. They’ve resisted trading their menagerie of Useful Tylers thus far, but this is probably the deadline that changes.
The Angels, for the first time in a while, look like they’re actually emerging from a morass. Patience. It’ll be a couple more seasons, but this deadline could kickstart those efforts. — Brisbee
Record: 44-55
Last Power Ranking: 24
Second-half storyline: Something to believe in?
This was supposed to be the Orioles’ heyday, when their young talent would make them consistent contenders. They won 101 games in 2023, got back to the playoffs last year and their FanGraphs playoff odds were basically identical to the Tigers on Opening Day (perhaps lower than expected due to concerns about their pitching). Instead, the Orioles have been a complete flop, setting the stage for a potentially massive fire sale at the trade deadline (Ryan O’Hearn, Zach Eflin, Cedric Mullins, et al.). Can the Orioles turn a bunch of rentals into meaningful talent? And perhaps more importantly, can their young core perform well enough in the second half to suggest all the hype and expectation is warranted (assuming they don’t skimp on pitching in the future). — Jennings
Record: 46-53
Last Power Ranking: 25
Second-half storyline: All about Sandy
This story is all about the main character. With all due respect to Kyle Stowers and Otto Lopez, there’s no bigger fish in the Marlins clubhouse than Sandy Alcantara. And after another underwhelming start on Friday, he currently has a 7.14 ERA. Three years ago, he won a Cy Young award, and in two or three years, he’s going to be a free agent. Miami has to decide whether to trade him, and some contending team has to decide whether to believe in him. Whether he stays or goes, Alcantara will be the biggest Marlins story of the second half. — Jennings
Record: 42-60
Last Power Ranking: 27
Second-half storyline: So, how’s the ballpark during the Sacramento summer?
The A’s have scheduled as many night games as possible in the Sacramento heat, but they’re limited on Sundays and travel days because of the CBA and ESPN games, and we’re about to get into the real Northern California summer. July is for weenies; real heads know that August and especially September is when the heat gets here.
That’s more of a Bay Area dynamic — it’s already been plenty hot in Sacramento — but it still applies. It’s a long baseball season for the new turf, too. We’ll see if there’s any physical fatigue, for players or otherwise, as the months drag on. — Brisbee
Record: 40-61
Last Power Ranking: 26
Second-half storyline: Why do we watch baseball, anyway?
I mean look, if you’re reading a section about the Pirates, it probably means you care about the Pirates, which means you could tell me a half-dozen reasons you’ll keep watching their games this year.
Paul Skenes is stupid-good at pitching and gets robbed of a loss about every fifth day, which is sad or funny, depending on if you root for Skenes. Oneil Cruz hits the ball 120 miles an hour once in a while (which is neither sad nor funny, unless you are a nervous laugher). Andrew McCutchen is baseball’s version of a wizened old monk atop a mountain, and you never know how much longer he’ll stick around, so you should take that in while you can.
All of these are worthwhile reasons to watch baseball, and I’m not going to tell you otherwise. Life is fleeting, and so very precious, and if watching the Pirates brings you any shred of joy, you should keep doing it. — Weaver
Record: 40-60
Last Power Ranking: 28
Second-half storyline: First chapter of a fresh start
The Nationals already made their biggest decision of the year, firing manager Dave Martinez and general manager Mike Rizzo. They haven’t been any better since, but at least they did … something. Last week, they picked first in the draft. Later this month, they’ll sell at the deadline (though their valuable chips are few and far between unless they want to trade a trio of potential cornerstones). Whatever happens in the second half, it’s all about starting over. The Nationals aren’t starting from scratch — James Wood is a pretty good foundation — but they’re clearly turning a page. Their second-half storyline is just an introduction to whatever comes next. — Jennings
Record: 36-65
Last Power Ranking: 29
Second-half storyline: When does Bears training camp begin?
I know what I just said about the Pirates up there. I could lean into that sentiment again here, or we could give equal time to an opposing philosophy, one passed down to us by a “semi-professional racecar driver and amateur tattoo artist.” It goes like this: “If you’re not first, you’re last.”
OK, OK, that’s terrible advice, but in the case of the White Sox, it has been a while since they were first … or second, or third… The last time they finished anywhere other than last was 2023, but they still lost 100 games that year, so … fourth place in that division still feels pretty last-ish to me.
The last time they were respectable? It was also the last time they had a winning record (not counting 1-0 on Opening Day) — they finished second in the AL Central in 2022, losing on the last day to fall to exactly .500 at 81-81.
The league that existed on that day did not yet include 14 players who were All-Stars this year.
It makes me wonder — not counting Opening Week, when do we think the White Sox will have a winning record again? I’m setting the over/under at May 12, 2028. — Weaver
Record: 24-76
Last Power Ranking: 30
Second-half storyline: Can they avoid the 2024 White Sox?
C’mon, folks. We’re all in this together. It can’t be possible for a team to set a modern record for losses that stands for just one year. It has to wear that shame for at least another year, but they’d preferably do it for a decade, if not a century. That is simply too many losses for the record to last just a year.
Back of the envelope math: The Rockies were 24-75 as of Monday morning, a 39-win pace, breaking the White Sox record by two games. They’re 15-20 since the start of June, which is just normal worst-team stuff, not historical worst-team stuff. Keep it up, fellas. — Brisbee
(Top photo of Pete Crow-Armstrong: Matt Dirksen / Chicago Cubs / Getty Images)
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