As the MLB regular season winds down, the races for a playoff spot in both the AL and NL are heating up.
So, here at SI Betting, we are going to share a detailed look at the playoff picture every week so fans can see where their teams stand and bettors can potentially find some value in a team that is just outside the wild card race.
Last week, it was pretty clear where each division leader stood, but a huge winning streak by the Seattle Mariners has flipped some things in the American League.
Meanwhile, the New York Mets and New York Yankees are struggling, and the teams trailing them in the wild card picture are starting to make a real push to enter the top three.
Let’s break down the odds for every team that still has a shot to make the playoffs at this point in the MLB season.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Division Leaders
The AL division leaders have remained the same week over week, but the Seattle Mariners are making a real push in the AL West.
Seattle, which is -1100 to make the playoffs, has won seven games in a row and nine of its last 10 to pull within half a game of the Astros in the standings. Houston still has the inside track to a playoff spot (-1400), but it could end up in the wild card picture if it loses its early-week series with another wild card team – the Boston Red Sox.
Meanwhile, Detroit (six-game lead in the AL Central) and Toronto (four-game lead in the AL East) both have pretty comfortable margins – for now – atop their divisions. An 8-2 stretch by the Cleveland Guardians has tightened things for Detroit, which has a worse record than Toronto in the 2025 season.
Wild Card Race
Last week, I wrote about the Yankees fading in the AL playoff picture, and they’ve continued to do so by losing a weekend series to the Astros.
New York has a half-game cushion on the surging Guardians and just a 2.5-game cushion on the Texas Rangers in the standings. So, it’s very possible the Yankees could find themselves behind multiple teams if they don’t turn things around sooner rather than later.
Texas has lost four in a row, allowing the Guardians to leapfrog it in the standings. Cleveland may be the team to bet on right now, as it’s peaking at the right time and has a shot at both a wild card spot and the division lead.
New York and Texas are both third in their respective divisions.
Division Leaders
The Milwaukee Brewers have been so good, winning nine games in a row, that their odds to make the playoffs are off the board, a sign that oddsmakers expect them to be in the playoffs no matter what.
Milwaukee could move to 30 games over .500 with a win over the Pittsburgh Pirates on Monday night.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers’ lead in the NL West is just two games, as the San Diego Padres (7-3 in their last 10 games) are making a serious push. As of now, it seems like the team with the best record in MLB will come out of the NL, but a lot could change over the final weeks of the regular season.
Wild Card Race
The Chicago Cubs have the best odds to make the playoffs of any wild card team, but I think the Padres may be the safest team here since they are still within striking distance of their division lead.
Chicago is six games back in the NL Central, while the Mets, who have lost seven in a row, are 5.5 games back in the NL East.
If New York continues to struggle, there is a real path for the Cincinnati Reds (1.5 games back in the wild card) to make the playoffs.
Cincy doesn’t have as talented a roster as the Mets, but it did go all in at the trade deadline by adding Ke’Bryan Hayes, Zack Littell, and others. The Reds are +320 to make the playoffs, which is good for an implied probability of 23.81 percent.
However, with the Reds just 1.5 games out of a playoff spot, they may be undervalued at this price.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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