Men’s college basketball predictions for 2025-26: Final Four, national champion and more

At long last, it’s here: the start of the men’s college basketball season.

And while opening night isn’t what it used to be — remind us why we don’t start every season with the Champions Classic? — the season begins with two high-quality, intriguing matchups Monday. The first pits No. 3 Florida, the reigning national champions, against Tommy Lloyd’s freshmen-led No. 13 Arizona squad, which has its sights set on the Big 12 title. And for a nightcap, how about the official debut of AJ Dybantsa, the nation’s top freshman, and No. 8 BYU against Villanova?

Yes, please.

The rest of the week is a little light — outside of No. 6 Duke versus Texas on Tuesday, that is, in Sean Miller’s debut with the Longhorns — but the opening weekend makes up for it. We’ve got No. 19 Kansas at No. 25 North Carolina, in what should be KU freshman Darryn Peterson’s national breakout. No. 15 Alabama at No. 5 St. John’s, our first real look at Rick Pitino’s revamped roster. Not to mention No. 14 Arkansas at No. 22 Michigan State, Oklahoma at No. 21 Gonzaga, Virginia Tech at Providence, and a handful of others. Saturday is one of those “don’t move from the couch” days.

The start of the season also brings something else: our preseason predictions. Not one of our 10 voters picked Florida to make the Final Four last season. Oops. Are we wiser this year? We’ll see.

Our 12 panelists only gave votes to five teams — three of whom have played in the last two national championship games — to win it all this season. On the other hand, 14 different teams — including one who barely snuck into the preseason top-25 — received at least one Final Four nod.

Bookmark this page for, say, January, and check back in then. Onto our picks and bold predictions:

Which high-major team that missed last season’s NCAA Tournament will make it in 2026?

Ohio State: The Buckeyes were close to making the NCAA Tournament last year and had one of the best offseasons in college basketball. The Buckeyes retained three legit starters and got better through the portal. Christoph Tilly (Santa Clara) was one of the best available centers and gives their frontcourt some maturity it was missing. Ohio State also signed a top-50 recruit in Amare Bynum and landed a high-profile international prospect in Mathieu Grujicic. If the Buckeyes stay healthy, there’s no excuse for this not to be a tourney team. — CJ Moore

NC State: Following the bold move to bring Will Wade back to power-conference basketball, NC State patiently crafted a tournament-caliber roster. Darrion Williams is the star, but advanced metrics also adore the trio of Tre Holloman, Terrance Arceneaux and Ven-Allen Lubin. NBA scouts are paying close attention to wing scorers Matt Able and Paul McNeil. With Wade in charge of what should be an extremely switchable defense, the Wolfpack will not need a magical March run to go dancing this year. — Jim Root

Iowa: This is a bet on Ben and Bennett to instantly restore energy and hope in a program that got increasingly stale under Fran McCaffery and missed the NCAA Tournament the past two seasons. That’s coach Ben McCollum and point guard Bennett Stirtz, the duo who led Drake to a 31-4 season in 2024-25, including an NCAA tourney win over Missouri. They give Iowa one of the bright young coaches in the game and perhaps the best point guard this season. Is there enough around them? Tavion Banks (Drake), Alvaro Folgueiras (Robert Morris) and sharpshooter Brendan Hausen (Kansas State) will have to do a lot. But Iowa is going to defend. That’s for sure. And that’s a big, needed change. — Joe Rexrode

Ohio State: The Buckeyes were one of the “first four out” of the NCAA Tournament in Jake Diebler’s first full season (17-15, 9-11 Big Ten), but continuity should help get them in the bracket in Year 2. The team returns three double-digit scorers on the perimeter in Bruce Thornton (17.7 points per game), Devin Royal (13.7) and John Mobley Jr. (13), with Thornton and Mobley both shooting better than 38 percent from 3-point range last season. Ohio State also addressed some of its rebounding and interior defense issues by adding Tilly and Brandon Noel from Wright State to the frontcourt, along with the freshman Bynum. Former Baylor big man Josh Ojianwuna could also return from a knee injury to be a late-season reinforcement during Big Ten play. — Justin Williams

Iowa: I’m drinking the McCollum Kool-Aid (though after the Hawkeyes got thumped by Saint Louis 99-74 in a secret scrimmage, I’m sipping instead of gulping). — Lindsay Schnell

Indiana: In the preseason KenPom rankings, the Hoosiers sit at No. 40. They’re 41st in Bart Torvik’s projections. Evan Miyakawa has them at No. 42. To which we can say: Who knows! Nobody knows. The tabula is extremely rasa in Bloomington. But eight players who transferred in for Year 1 of the Darian DeVries era averaged double-figures at their previous stops. Five were all-conference-level players and two earned All-Freshman honors in their leagues. The new coach, meanwhile, hasn’t ever had a losing season — and that easily could have changed when injuries beset West Virginia a year ago. That team won 19 games anyway and was a reviled snub by the selection committee. Who knows if Indiana will figure it out? But it’s not a bad bet that it will. — Brian Hamilton

NC State: Its portal haul, including a potential ACC player of the year in Williams, and a talented freshman in Able will re-energize the Wolfpack program. — Matthew Ho

NC State: Success tends to follow Wade, and that trend should continue in Raleigh. Wade brought in a massive transfer haul of eight players. Six of those newcomers have NCAA Tournament experience, giving the Wolfpack a veteran edge. Expect this team to defend at a high level and showcase the versatility to challenge anyone in the league — with a top-three ACC finish well within reach. — Tobias Bass

Iowa: McCollum’s system will have the Hawkeyes defending better in his inaugural season than they have in decades. — Scott Dochterman

Providence: After UConn and St. John’s, the Big East could end up with a lot of somewhat similarly skilled teams trying to claw out enough wins to solidify a bubble case, and after a 1-6 record in one-score conference games last spring, maybe Kim English’s luck will turn around just in time. Vanderbilt transfer Jason Edwards is a self-propelled bucket-getter who can get white-hot, the kind of newcomer that can steal a few quality wins on his own if he settles in with his new squad. — Eric Single

NC State: A new coach who can build a roster, and a potential All-American in Williams. It wouldn’t be a shock to see the Wolfpack finish top three in the ACC. — Mark Cooper

Virginia: Much of the offseason ACC hype centered on Wade and NC State — not wrongly so — but are people forgetting about Ryan Odom and Virginia? The Cavs flipped basically their entire roster, brought in an all-international starting frontline, and landed San Francisco transfer Malik Thomas as a potential go-to scorer. The pieces fit, Odom is a proven coach who has never needed more than two seasons at any stop to make the NCAA Tournament, and the ACC is there for the taking. Don’t be surprised if Virginia finishes top four. — Brendan Marks

Which high-major team that made the 2025 tournament will miss it in 2026?

Georgia: Georgia lost six of its seven leading scorers, including Asa Newell (to the NBA) and Silas Demary (to UConn). There are some interesting portal pieces, highlighted by BYU transfer Kanon Catchings and Cal transfer Jeremiah Wilkinson, but this roster is young and could struggle in another loaded SEC. I’ve got the Bulldogs projected to finish 15th in the league. The SEC did send a record 14 teams to the NCAA Tournament a year ago, but it’s hard to see that happening again. — Moore

Texas: The Longhorns’ roster build confuses me. They have defensive upside with Dailyn Swain, Tramon Mark, Simeon Wilcher and Chendall Weaver, but a stark lack of rim protection could be a fatal flaw. Offensively, the roster boasts a lot of willing shooters but fewer distributors. It could look clunky, just like Sean Miller’s final offense at Xavier did. I’m selling Texas basketball stock this year. — Root

Texas A&M: To be clear, Bucky Ball is going to be a hit in College Station. But does Bucky McMillan have a tournament team right away? He has brought in some serious talent to reinvent a roster that returns one player from the 2024-25 team coached by Buzz Williams — sophomore walk-on forward Chris McDermott. Pop Isaacs (Creighton/Texas Tech) will run the point, Rylan Griffen (Kansas, Alabama) and Mackenzie Mgbako (Indiana) will be on the wing and shot blocker Federiko Federiko (Texas Tech, Pittsburgh, Northern Oklahoma) will patrol the paint. That’s not bad. But “not bad” can get lost quickly in the SEC. — Rexrode

Xavier: Richard Pitino will prove to be a good hire for the Musketeers, but the transition to a new coach and completely turning over the roster will make for a transition season. — Williams

Clemson: The Tigers lost a lot from last year, and while that isn’t necessarily the hit it was before the transfer portal era, I’m skeptical this new starting five will be able to jell quickly. The ACC isn’t what it used to be, but it’s also not a cakewalk. — Schnell

Georgia: Five of the top six scorers from 2024-25 are gone. Nothing unusual there. But that core led the Bulldogs to an 8-10 record in SEC play, which means they weren’t that great a core to begin with. Then Mike White landed one double-digit scorer out of the transfer portal, and Wilkinson managed that for a Cal team that finished 110th in the final KenPom rankings. It does not appear Georgia got better. And if things are worse, well, it’s not that long a fall from a No. 9 seed with a sub-.500 record in the league to out of the NCAA Tournament field. — Hamilton

Texas A&M: McMillan will bring a style of play that has the potential to shake up the SEC, but with a brand new roster, it’ll likely take some time. And in arguably the most competitive conference in the sport, that might be enough to prevent the Aggies from making the tournament. — Ho

Xavier: In Richard Pitino’s first season at the helm, the Musketeers are likely to experience their share of growing pains and inconsistency. While there’s talent on the roster, depth and balance remain concerns. With programs like Georgetown and Providence making major moves in the transfer portal, Xavier may find itself on the outside looking in when March rolls around. — Bass

Texas A&M: With Williams off to Maryland, Texas A&M has major turnover in the nation’s deepest conference. — Dochterman

Clemson: The past two seasons have marked the Tigers’ only consecutive tournament trips in Brad Brownell’s 14 seasons in charge, so maybe it’s too easy to envision regression for a program grinding to remain in the middle class of a reloaded league. But spackling together a new core out of up-transfers alongside Dillon Hunter, the source of the team’s only returning starts from last year, seems destined for some growing pains. — Single

Texas A&M: I wanted to reach beyond a First Four team (like Xavier or Texas), and landed on the Aggies, who have a new coach and mostly new roster. I like McMillan’s long-term outlook, but in a deep conference, even a small step back from Williams’ final squad may make it difficult to stack up enough wins. — Cooper

Clemson: No disrespect to Brownell, the ACC’s longest-tenured coach, but in what should be a much better ACC, I question if the Tigers have the backcourt talent. The frontcourt should be fine, especially with Nevada transfer Nick Davidson arriving, and Brownell’s going to get the most out of his group, but I just don’t know that he has the horses to go dancing this season. — Marks

Who is the most interesting mid-major team in the country?

Liberty: It’s rare for really good mid-major teams to hold onto their players. The Flames are the exception. They return three starters, including two — Kaden Metheny and Zach Cleveland — who were all-conference selections. Ritchie McKay is one of the best coaches in the country. It’s hard to go on a tourney run as a mid-major in the portal age of college hoops, but if you’re looking for one to pick, Liberty is probably the best bet. — Moore

Saint Louis: The Billikens are my post-hype breakout team. Robbie Avila is back as a senior, and Josh Schertz built more depth around him this offseason. There’s also plenty of upside with Trey Green — who averaged 5 points per game in just nine appearances for Xavier last season — and Quinnipiac transfer Paul Otieno. Depending on the strength of nonconference opponents like Grand Canyon and San Francisco, Saint Louis could even be an at-large caliber team if all breaks right. — Root

Illinois State: Picked to win the Missouri Valley in the preseason poll for the first time in nearly a quarter century. That’s because coach Ryan Pedon, whose three-year build produced 22 wins and a CBI title last season, was able to retain big man Chase Walker and guard Johnny Kinziger. Year 4 should yield the program’s first NCAA bid since 1998. — Rexrode

VCU: The program has a history of success, and I’m interested to see what Phil Martelli Jr. does with it after taking over for Odom, considering Martelli comes in with only two seasons of head-coaching experience. — Williams

VCU: A new coach and a completely revamped roster. Can the Rams make the NCAA Tournament? — Schnell

VCU: One, because Martelli gets started at a program that tries to operate like a power-conference outfit. Two, because the Rams are a top-50 preseason team according to Bart Torvik despite the expected roster overhaul that comes with a coaching change. Martelli brought in a couple of pieces from a Bryant team that won its league and top-60 recruit Nyk Lewis. But it’s the usual hodgepodge of new faces. Essentially, I’m wondering what the algorithm knows that I don’t. — Hamilton

New Mexico: Very curious to see if Eric Olen’s system at UC San Diego carries over to this new stop. I got a firsthand look at how they played throughout last year, and the spacing and the way Olen coaches defense seem innovative and translatable. — Ho

George Washington: The Revolutionaries return four players who started at least 15 games last season and bolstered their roster with a strong transfer class, adding four transfers who each averaged double figures at their previous programs. With the Atlantic 10 as deep and competitive as ever, George Washington looks well-positioned to make a serious run. — Bass

Saint Mary’s: If only to send Gonzaga packing without the WCC title. — Dochterman

San Diego State: Magoon Gwath is appointment viewing if he can stay healthy. — Single

Saint Louis: The move of Schertz and Avila — you might remember “Cream Abdul-Jabbar” — didn’t lead to an immediate NCAA Tournament appearance, but they’re back, added a decent transfer class and were picked second (behind VCU) in the Atlantic 10. — Cooper

San Diego State: They’re not a true mid-major, but San Diego State fascinates me, and I bet the Aztecs knock off a high-major foe or two in the nonconference. Miles Byrd is the rare first-round talent to return to school and not up-transfer to a high-major program, and he’s the biggest reason for optimism. But beyond that, Gwath is the next elite defender to come out of SDSU, and Reese Waters is back after missing all of last season with a foot injury. I’m a little surprised the Aztecs weren’t ranked in the preseason poll, but they’ll be a Mountain West front-runner for sure. — Marks

Who is the most interesting player in the country?

Darryn Peterson, Kansas: For its standards, Kansas has been down for two years. The only other time Bill Self has ever had his best player be a freshman was in 2014 with Andrew Wiggins. Self has never talked about a freshman like he talks about Peterson. Not even Wiggins or Joel Embiid. Peterson is the freshman with the best shot to have a Cooper Flagg-like impact this year. — Moore

Donovan Dent, UCLA. An All-American talent going to a coach, Mick Cronin, who rarely lets his point guards go, go, go. Does the player-coach fit work? — Root

Peterson: Three straight Kansas teams since the 2022 title have been on the disappointing/aesthetically underwhelming side. But Peterson should be the most electric talent in the sport. This isn’t quite Flagg, but it’s must-watch every night. — Rexrode

AJ Dybantsa, BYU: I want to see if he lives up to the hype. — Williams

Dybantsa: Can he live up to the hype (and the paycheck)? — Schnell

Dybantsa: Never mind the potential for being the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft. He’s the avatar of BYU’s decision to pour millions into men’s basketball and, by extension, use that to help raise the profile of the LDS church. Some profound layers here in a big bet on one player. — Hamilton

Yaxel Lendeborg, Michigan: Lendeborg put up some high-popping stats at UAB last season and had a chance to be a first-round pick this past NBA Draft. He impacts nearly every facet of the game, and Michigan’s Dusty May has shown he can utilize versatile forwards like this in many different ways. Can Lendeborg reach similar production levels while maintaining efficiency? If he does, Michigan could become a No. 1 seed come tournament time. — Ho

AJ Storr, Ole Miss: Just two years ago, Storr was one of the nation’s top scorers, averaging 16.8 points per game at Wisconsin. However, a rocky stint at Kansas derailed his draft momentum and landed him in the transfer portal for the third time in as many years. Now at Ole Miss, Storr has a chance to reset his trajectory. — Bass

Bennett Stirtz, Iowa: His skill set is something the Hawkeyes haven’t had at point guard for decades, and his ability to engineer victories could elevate Iowa into the Big Ten’s upper tier. — Dochterman

Darrion Williams, NC State: I’m not exactly sure how the Wolfpack’s roster is going to work together, but Wade could do worse than giving Williams all the touches he can handle and seeing what happens. — Single

Peterson: He’s potentially the No. 1 pick in next year’s NBA Draft, so that’s immediately intriguing. But he also comes to Kansas at an interesting time: The Jayhawks are coming off their worst season of the 21st century. Can he handle the weight of expectations and help KU close the gap between it and Houston? — Cooper

Dybantsa: He might not be the best freshman in college basketball, but the Dybantsa and BYU are must-watch for me. That’s both because of the greater circumstances surrounding his recruitment — a compensation package believed to be around $5 million, the No. 1 recruit going to BYU, of all places — but also how far he can carry the Cougars. In Baylor transfer Robert Wright III, Dybantsa has a suitable running mate, and Kevin Young’s offense ran impressive stuff last season, but how this year plays out in Utah will be a test case of top recruits in unusual landing spots in the NIL era. — Marks

Bold predictions for 2025-26

• It’s the year of the Big Ten. A Big Ten team finally wins a national title for the first time since 2000, and the league has a few surprise teams in Iowa, Ohio State and Washington, who all finish in the top half of the Big Ten and advance to at least the Round of 32. — Moore
• Virginia and Iowa are both top-20 teams and make the Sweet 16. — Root
• Houston will win the national championship. Does that qualify as bold, picking a consensus preseason top-five team? Considering the history at hand, yes. Emanuel Sharp, Joseph Tugler and a loaded supporting cast will finish the job for Kelvin Sampson this time. — Rexrode
• Purdue and Matt Painter finally win an NCAA national championship — close to home in Indianapolis. — Williams
• No SEC teams make the Elite Eight. — Schnell
• One of this group — Jon Scheyer, Kevin Young, Todd Golden, Dan Hurley, Nate Oats — is an NBA coach at this time next year. — Hamilton
• UCLA finishes top-two in the Big Ten, and San Diego State finishes top-15 in the country. — Ho
• The Big Ten finally wins a national championship … and its not Purdue. Try Michigan or Illinois. — Bass
• The Big Ten finally wins a national title. It’s much deeper than last year, and Purdue has the pieces to put it together. — Dochterman
• BYU regresses significantly, makes the tournament on the bubble and bows out in the first round. — Single
• Twenty years after their magical Final Four run, George Mason returns to the NCAA Tournament and, led by a coach (Tony Skinn) who played on that Final Four team, wins a first-round game. — Cooper
• A year after the SEC set a new record for NCAA Tournament bids from one league (14), not a single SEC team makes the Final Four, and only one makes the Elite Eight. — Marks

Final Four and national championship picks

Bass

Final Four: Louisville, Kentucky, Michigan, UConn
Champion: Kentucky

Cooper

Final Four: Houston, Kentucky, Purdue, UConn
Champion: UConn

Dochterman

Final Four: Florida, Houston, Purdue, Texas Tech
Champion: Purdue

Hamilton

Final Four: Houston, Louisville, St. John’s, UConn
Champion: Houston

Ho

Final Four: Florida, Houston, Michigan, UCLA
Champion: Houston

Marks

Final Four: Houston, Louisville, Purdue, UConn
Champion: UConn

Moore

Final Four: Arizona, Kentucky, Louisville, Michigan
Champion: Michigan

Rexrode

Final Four: Arkansas, Houston, Purdue, UConn
Champion: Houston

Root

Final Four: Houston, Purdue, St. John’s, Texas Tech
Champion: Houston

Schnell

Final Four: Houston, Michigan, Purdue, Texas Tech
Champion: Purdue

Single

Final Four: Gonzaga, Houston, Kansas, UConn
Champion: UConn

Williams

Final Four: Houston, Michigan, Purdue, Texas Tech
Champion: Purdue