Massive Texas Longhorns vs. Ohio State Buckeyes line moves before kickoff

The highly anticipated football game between the Texas Longhorns and the Ohio State Buckeyes has seen significant line movement since early line releases and that has only accelerated 24 hours before kickoff.

On3 is sponsored by BETMGM where Texas is currently +1 with a 47.5 team total.

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A 550K wager yesterday on Texas will certainly move a line.

Some key points from the article:

Circa Sports owner Derek Stevens said yesterday that his sportsbook took a $550,000 wager on Texas +1, which pushed them to make the Longhorns a 1-point favorite. The $550,000 is the largest reported wager on the Ohio State-Texas game so far. Circa’s line on the game is currently a pick-em.

“For us, it’s mostly been Texas action,” Ty Gour, a trader at Fanatics Sportsbook, told Yahoo Sports. “Over 60% of the bets on the moneyline are on Texas, along with 70% of the money. More spread money is on [the Longhorns], but the bet count is 55-45. It’s not often you see the No. 1 team in the country at plus money, so it’s tempting as a bettor.”

Key takeaway: most of the action appears to be public. But clearly some big money – which is not always sharp money – has staked out some ground.

Why Texas? Public reasoning may not be much more complex than: why is the preseason #1 an underdog? Also, Arch!

Why Ohio State? Defending National Champions may be doing a lot of work.

Either position can be right – and one will be – but for the wrong reasons.

Back in late January, you could bet Texas +4.5 at Ohio State at a favorable -105. That was driven down in no small part by a 90K moneyline bet on Texas at +185 back in January.

No, that wasn’t me. Though I did take Texas +4.5.

Right now, the line movement between Texas and Ohio State at multiple books suggests a combination of market influences and trying to balance out some Texas liability.

They may also have honest differences of opinion. Remember, books will take positions. It’s a myth that they seek perfect balance in all bets. Or they simple disagree on the fulcrum point.

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The team total number also tells an interesting story. It opened at 51.5, but you can now find numbers as low as 47.5. A strong move across 51 and 48 (common key totals) is meaningful. Despite two potentially explosive offenses, bettors are increasingly anticipating a conservative defensive-oriented ball game.

If that game total continues downwards, expect sharp money to come in over the top, some of it seeking to middle.

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Football is here. Get ready!


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