Texas Gov. Greg Abbott on Friday signed a bill to redraw the state’s congressional districts to be more friendly to Republicans, capping off a redistricting push that drew national attention. It also led to California’s Gov. Gavin Newsom’s own campaign to redraw the map to help Democrats.
Missouri is following Texas and California’s lead, with the state’s Republican Gov. Mike Kehoe announcing Friday that he had called for the state’s Legislature to convene on Sept. 3 to redraw the state’s congressional districts. Missouri has eight representatives in Congress, two of whom are Democrats.
Challenges remain for both Texas and California’s new maps. While Texas law only requires the Legislature and the governor’s approval to set the congressional maps, civil rights groups have already challenged them in court, accusing the maps of being racially biased. The maps the GOP-controlled Legislature created in 2021 are still being litigated in court.
In California, the state’s congressional map must be approved by voters before it takes effect. The Democratic-controlled Assembly and State Senate both approved a measure called Proposition 50 for the Nov. 4 ballot that, if approved, will overhaul the state’s congressional maps. California Republicans challenged the maps in court, saying Democrats ignored the 30-day public review period for new legislation, although the state Supreme Court denied the petition on Aug. 27.
Congressional maps are normally redrawn every 10 years after the U.S. Census reveals population shifts. But this rare mid-decade redistricting push was kicked off by President Trump in mid-July as Republicans seek to maintain — or even expand — their razor-thin majority in Congress in the 2026 midterm elections. Historically speaking, midterm elections are often a rebuke of the party in the White House. Mr. Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson zeroed in on Texas, with the president claiming Republicans could gain an extra five seats given how the state voted in 2024.
Abbott then called a special session of the Legislature with redistricting on the agenda. But two weeks into the 30-day special session, Texas Democrats fled the state to deny a quorum and prevent the legislation from coming to the floor.
The Democrats ultimately returned after two weeks, and the legislation was passed, but they garnered significant national attention. Although California requires congressional maps to be approved by voters, Newsom vowed to redraw the state’s districts to garner up to five seats for Democrats to counter Texas.
Amid this push, other states have also started to discuss redistricting efforts, with Indiana Republicans having met with Mr. Trump and members of his administration on Aug. 27 to try to redraw the state’s nine congressional districts to try to oust the two Democratic members. Florida’s Republican House speaker last month created a special committee to look into the possibility there.
Although both parties are trying to rig their state’s congressional districts to be favorable to themselves, the outcome is far from guaranteed.
“Computers and technology do give us a lot more ability to to make predictive statements about outcomes, but we’re doing it — I think it’s fair to say — in a very volatile environment politically, where things that we have seen as trends are sort of being turned on their heads,” said Kareem Crayton, vice president of the Washington, D.C.-based the Brennan Center for Justice.
Crayton noted several current issues that could factor heavily into voters’ decisions, and called it “folly to assume that just because people showed up and voted for the current president of the United States, that people want to show up for a member of Congress, particularly … a new candidate in a district that hasn’t been created before.”
See maps of how Texas and California’s push could play out, based on the 2024 election results:
Texas has 38 Congressional seats, 25 of which are currently held by Republicans. The other 13 are held by Democrats.
Texas Republicans have invested heavily in the Rio Grande Valley, once a Democratic stronghold but where Mr. Trump and the GOP have made gains in the past few years.
In 2024, two of the three Rio Grande Valley seats voted for Mr. Trump but reelected their Democratic member of Congress. The new maps are trying to add to those gains and box out those two Democrats.
In recent years, Texas Democrats have made gains in the Dallas-Fort Worth area and Houston’s Harris County. The new maps reshape Democratic Rep. Al Green’s Houston district out in the rural areas, making it a district that was 72% Democratic to one that is 40% Democratic. The proposed map also takes aim at Districts 32 and 33 in Dallas-Fort Worth, changing Rep. Julie Johnson’s 32nd District from 62% to 41% Democratic. Rep. Marc Veasey’s 33rd District remains a Democratic stronghold, but he would no longer live in the district.
Liberal Austin is further dissolved into neighboring districts under the proposed maps. Rep. Lloyd Doggett, who was first elected in 1994 and whose district gave former Vice President Kamala Harris her largest margin of victory in all of Texas, announced in August that he would not seek reelection if the proposed maps are upheld by the courts, avoiding a primary with Rep. Greg Casar, also of Austin.
California currently has 52 representatives in Congress, nine of whom are Republicans and 43 are Democrats. The GOP has made inroads in the Golden State, starting in 2020, when Republicans flipped three Democratic-held seats for the first time since 1994. Republicans have held onto two of them, including Rep. David Valadao’s 22nd District in the Central Valley.
Under the proposed map, Valadao’s district would go from being 47% Democratic in 2024 to one that is 49% Democratic, making him slightly more vulnerable. And GOP Rep. Darrell Issa’s 48th District near San Diego would change from 42% to 52% Democratic.
Other Republican strongholds in Central California have been spread into other districts. Rep. Ken Calvert’s 41st District in Riverside would be redrawn further toward Los Angeles, shifting it from a district that was 47% Democratic in 2024 to one that is 57% Democratic under the proposed maps.
In Northern California, Districts 1 and 3 both have dramatic shifts. GOP Rep. Doug LaMalfa’s District 1, which includes the most northeastern part of the state, would shift further south toward Marin County and the northern part is absorbed in the 2nd District, home to heavily Democratic Eureka and the northern Pacific coast. Rep. Kevin Kiley’s 3rd Congressional District, which snakes along the California-Nevada border through Death Valley, would instead move further toward heavily Democratic Sacramento. Republican Rep. Tom McClintock’s 5th District would be shifted to include the southern portions of what was Kiley’s district.
Kiley, whose district would go from one that was 48% Democratic in 2024 to one that is 55% Democratic, has been an outspoken critic of redistricting, even introducing legislation in the House to ban mid-decade redistricting.
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