Lions vs. Chiefs bold prediction: Jared Goff dominates Chiefs secondary

The Lions were on pace to make my prediction true last week, but the offense faltered against a struggling defense. The offense got stuck in the mud, even when given a short field. The Lions appeared ready to blow out the Cincinnati Bengals, but the Bengals made the game closer than the score indicated in the fourth quarter, putting up 21 points.

This week, the Lions have a much tougher task at hand. Taking on the defending AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs, while 2-3, won’t be an easy task. The Chiefs are dealing with some early-season struggles, but with a team built like them, you can’t write them off. Remember when quarterback Aaron Rodgers said “R-E-L-A-X” after the Green Bay Packers started 1-2? Or when the New England Patriots had a slow start with Tom Brady as their guy?

I know Rodgers isn’t a popular guy in this neck of the woods, but what I’m trying to get at is it’s too early to count out the Chiefs when they have Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. This team is dealing with issues on both sides of the ball, and help is coming in the form of Rashee Rice, but not until next week. While Mahomes has been doing everything he can on offense, he doesn’t play both sides of the ball. This week could be a shootout, where Lions quarterback Jared Goff could again outdo Mahomes.

Bold prediction of the week: Jared Goff throws for over 300 yards and three touchdowns

The biggest talking point has been how Mahomes is facing a banged-up secondary of the Lions. Detroit will be without starting cornerback D.J. Reed as he’s on IR, and most likely fellow starter Terrion Arnold due to a shoulder injury. With those two sitting, that means the Lions will have Amik Robertson and Rock Ya-Sin as your starting outside cornerbacks with Avonte Maddox starting at nickelback, but even his status is up in the air as he appeared on the injury report Thursday.

While everyone wants to focus on the banged-up Lions’ secondary and how Mahomes should pick them apart, why isn’t anybody talking about Goff having a good game against the Chiefs’ secondary? The Chiefs allowed 318 yards from Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert in the opening week, but have rebounded well since then. In the past four games, the Chiefs have allowed an average of 170.3 yards per game. According to PFF, the Chiefs have the second-best pass coverage grade of 76.9, keeping the Chiefs defense in games.

While the Lions love to run the football, this might be the week they rely on the passing game. Detroit will impose its will on the ground, and the Chiefs will adjust their defense to start loading the box and respecting Detroit’s running game, falling right into their trap. Just when the Chiefs think they will have the Lions figured out, Goff will unleash some play action and start slinging the rock. While, on paper, this should be a difficult game for Goff, I think this game works in his favor.

This season, Goff has averaged 237.4 yards and 2.4 touchdowns per game, and I believe he can throw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns this week. The Chiefs’ secondary has been tough to go up against, but the passing attacks for their opponents haven’t been like Detroit’s.

Goff is 2-0 when facing off against Mahomes, and in each victory, Goff came out looking like the better quarterback. I believe Goff will take down Mahomes and the Chiefs again. While Mahomes is struggling early this year, Goff has had fewer problems, even though he’ll be facing a sticky Chiefs’ secondary.

According to PFF, the Lions have the second-best receiving grade of 83.1 and its led by star wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. St. Brown. He is on pace set career-high in yards and touchdowns, averaging 85.4 yards and 1.2 touchdowns per game. While most of St. Brown’s success is due to his skillset, you have to credit Lions’ offensive coordinator John Morton for his play calling. He’s using his players to assist each other, like how fellow wide receiver Jameson Williams is used to open the field for St. Brown to get easy YAC.

Unlike Mahomes, Goff has a better receiving core to throw to, which makes it that much more difficult for defenses to go up against. In the play like the one above, teams can try to blanket Williams, but now you’re leaving the middle of the field for the best receiver on the team. If you try and take that away, well then Williams will beat you over top, and remember, the Chiefs didn’t see Williams in their 2023 matchup so this will be something they’ve never seen before.

Overall, the Chiefs’ defense will have its hands full with the Lions’ offense on Sunday night. Goff and company will find the holes in the Chiefs’ zone coverage and are ok with dinking and dunking their way down the field. It leaves Mahomes on the sideline, keeps the offense in rhythm, and gets them feeling comfortable and at ease. The Lions pulled off an “upset” against the Ravens a few weeks ago, and despite having the better record, they will pull off another upset this week as the underdogs behind another impressive performance led by Goff.