Life expectancy back to pre-pandemic levels, but teen and young adult deaths becoming ‘emerging crisis’

While most age groups have seen mortality improvements, the data show a troubling reversal for teens and young adults (approximately ages 10-29). Researchers describe the trend as “very marked increases” in death rates for some countries. The worrying sign: in many countries, death rates for young people are not falling as fast as for older groups — and in some places, they are rising. While Regional causes differ, some patterns stand out:

North America and parts of Latin America: In these parts of the world, rising deaths are linked with mental health issues, especially among young women. Suicide, drug overdoses, alcohol misuse, and self-harm are key drivers.

Sub-Saharan Africa: The leading causes of death in this region include preventable infectious diseases, unintentional injuries, maternal risks (for women), and gaps in health systems (e.g., vaccine access, emergency care).

Infectious and injury causes: In low-income settings, factors like road traffic accidents, lack of access to care for infections (HIV, malaria, tuberculosis), and maternal health issues are prominent and contributing factors to the death rates.

Previously undercounted mortality: The new modeling suggests that previous estimates of deaths in ages 5-14 were underestimated, meaning the trend is steeper than known.

These trends are especially alarming because the young have traditionally seen the fastest declines in mortality over decades. In richer nations, mental health struggles are seen playing an outsized role. Meanwhile, in lower-income settings, limited access to health care, weak health systems, road safety issues, and persistent infectious disease burdens continue to kill young people prematurely.