The Wild are indeed prepared to make pending UFA winger Kirill Kaprizov the highest-paid player in NHL history, but even that may not be enough to get a contract extension across the finish line. His representation turned down an eight-year, $128MM offer from the Wild yesterday that would have carried a cap hit of $16MM, Frank Seravalli of Bleacher Report relays. That would have been a record-setting deal in terms of both AAV and total value.
It’s the first marginal indication that the 28-year-old superstar’s time in Minnesota may be coming to an end. Wild front office staff and ownership have projected extreme confidence in their ability to get a long-term deal across the finish line ever since he became eligible to sign an extension on July 1. Michael Russo of The Athletic reported last month that the club would essentially let Kaprizov dictate the structure of his contract as long as it was at least five years in length.
Yet that was with the assumption that a $16MM cap hit, a whole $2MM clear of the record-setting $14MM AAV that Leon Draisaitl signed for with the Oilers one year ago, would be enough to get a deal done. If it’s going to take closer to the maximum salary of $19.1MM, it could be back to the drawing board.
While a jarring headline, it’s important to note the Wild and Kaprizov are still extremely early in the negotiating process. Talks didn’t begin in earnest until Kaprizov arrived back in Minnesota ahead of training camp in the last several days.
Seravalli’s report also doesn’t clarify what the basis was for the rejection. It might be a change in salary/bonus structure or trade protection that will take some time to work out, or a desire from Kaprizov to sign a shorter-term contract and give himself another chance to cash in on a deal in his early 30s. While a general hesitance to commit to the Wild, who haven’t won a playoff series during Kaprizov’s tenure, could be the driving force, it’s far too soon to write off the notion of an extension entirely.
In any event, the Wild must ask themselves how far above market value they’re willing to award Kaprizov. While he’s a true superstar and the brightest offensive talent in franchise history, he simply doesn’t have the resume that led names like Draisaitl and Nathan MacKinnon to receive record-setting contracts in recent years. He’s never hit the 50-goal mark, only broken 100 points once, and has never finished top five in MVP voting. All that combines to make his actual market value likely closer to the low $14MM range – even adjusted for the projected salary cap increase to $104MM, according to AFP Analytics.
Since entering the league in 2020-21, Kaprizov’s 386 points in 319 career games are 15th in the league. His 1.21 points per game are 10th. That’s still a whole 224 points less than what Oilers star Connor McDavid, also a pending UFA expected to sign in the $16MM range if he extends in Edmonton, has over the last five years.
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