The Patriots are surging, winners of five straight after a dominant 32-13 win over the Browns. Drake Maye continues to shine in his second season, and now New England faces the 3-4 Falcons, who are coming off a 31-10 home loss to Miami.
Atlanta’s offense was without Michael Penix and Drake London, and managed just 213 total yards, a season low. The Falcons have been wildly inconsistent, with impressive wins over Minnesota, Washington, and Buffalo, but lopsided losses to Carolina and Miami.
Here are three things to watch for!
Atlanta’s offense ranks 23rd in DVOA and 26th in EPA/play, and they’ve scored just 120 points (28th in the NFL), presenting another opportunity for New England’s defense to dictate the flow of the game.
Last week followed a familiar script: Cleveland scored on their opening drive but didn’t reach the end zone again until garbage time. The Pats would love to eliminate those early inconsistencies and turn in a full 60-minute effort.
New England’s defense ranks 5th in EPA/play, 4th in points allowed (18.3 PPG), and 9th in yards allowed. However, they’re just 28th in DVOA, a reflection of the weak offenses they’ve faced. Atlanta has weapons if Penix and London return, so this could be a chance to improve that DVOA standing.
The other area to watch is red zone defense, where the Patriots rank 31st. It’s a small sample size since opponents haven’t reached the red zone often, but over the last three games, New England has been closer to league average. Putting the clamps down inside the 20 this week would help continue that trend.
Last week, TreVeyon Henderson and Mack Hollins had their best games of the season, giving the Patriots offense more balance and some potent secondary threats. The run game has come alive with back-to-back weeks over 170 rushing yards, and the Patriots now rank 13th in rushing yards and 15th in yards per carry (4.3).
Atlanta’s defense is solid overall, ranking 10th in DVOA, 2nd in yards allowed, and 13th in points allowed. But they’ve allowed 100+ rushing yards in 6 of 7 games, and rank 21st in rushing yards allowed, 23rd in yards per attempt, and 24th in rushing EPA.
This could be a breakout opportunity for the Patriots ground game because the offense might need to rely a little more on the run this week. Atlanta’s pass defense ranks first in both passing attempts and passing yardage and 10th in takeaways. The Falcons also don’t give up a lot of explosive plays, while New England has relied on them.
Add it all up and this is an interesting matchup for the Patriots offense.
Despite a quiet first half, Drake Maye turned it on in the second half against Cleveland, finishing with 282 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and a 138.9 passer rating. On the season, Maye leads the NFL in passer rating (118.7) and has thrown for 2,026 yards, 15 touchdowns, and just 3 interceptions, while adding 250 rushing yards and 2 rushing scores.
The Patriots offense ranks 11th in DVOA, 6th in EPA/play, 8th in points, and 10th in total yards. Maye’s deep ball accuracy has been elite, and if the offensive line gives him time, he’s proven he can carve up any defense.
Atlanta will be a solid test for Maye and the offense, but if Maye keeps playing the way he has been, they’ll be tough to contain.
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