Editor’s note: This article is part of our NFL QB Stock Report series. Every week, Jeff Howe notes who’s rising and falling at starting quarterback (and why) for all 32 teams.
The Houston Texans find themselves in an unexpectedly tricky situation with quarterback C.J. Stroud.
Like everyone on the NFL’s lowest-scoring offense, Stroud has underwhelmed during the Texans’ season-opening, three-game losing streak. He’s completed 64 percent of his passes for 599 yards, two touchdowns, three interceptions and a 76.9 passer rating that’s the sixth worst among QBs who have started all three games this season.
And with Stroud eligible for his first contract extension in the offseason, the Texans have a lot to sort through before navigating their strategy at the negotiating table.
Namely, is this a Stroud issue or a Texans issue? And is the root cause going to be fixable with a $50 million quarterback on the payroll for several years?
There’s more than enough time for Stroud to get it resolved, but he’s on pace for the worst statistical season of his young career. The opening stretch is also a continuation of a disappointing 2024 season. Among the 33 QBs with at least 300 pass attempts since last season, Stroud ranks 28th in EPA/dropback, according to TruMedia — only better than Joe Flacco, Cooper Rush, Gardner Minshew, Spencer Rattler and Will Levis.
Contract negotiations are an exercise in player comparisons, so Stroud would have a hard time justifying his request for Josh Allen money when he’s posting numbers more typically associated with a fringe starter.
But Stroud, who turns 24 next month, was the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year two seasons ago, and a handful of team executives and coaches told The Athletic this week that honor was no fluke. Stroud was the No. 2 pick in the 2023 draft and was ranked in the top 40 of the last two NFL Top 100 polls. Earlier this month, he received two votes when The Athletic asked 31 coaches and executives which quarterbacks they’d select to start a franchise from scratch.
It’s obvious Stroud is still widely respected by his peers and key evaluators.
So what’s the deal? Coaches and executives pointed to several factors when discussing his struggles: the Texans’ remade offensive line has played poorly; Houston hasn’t helped him with any semblance of a rushing attack; and there’s been too much turnover on offense.
General manager Nick Caserio rebuilt the offensive line during the offseason, which was understandable after the unit’s dismal performance in 2024. But the Texans have four new starters alongside right tackle Tytus Howard, including second-round pick Aireontae Ersery, who is off to a poor start with penalties and pass protection miscues at left tackle. Remember, that’s where stalwart Laremy Tunsil lined up during Stroud’s first two seasons. Ersery and Howard have each been flagged three times this season.
So, it’s understandable why Stroud has looked so uncomfortable in the pocket. If he can’t trust his protection, particularly with center Jake Andrews entering the season with one career start on his resume, it’s going to be virtually impossible to consistently deliver passes with confidence.
And considering the Texans rank 29th in rushing attempts and 23rd in yardage, they don’t have enough balance on offense. It’s not like they’ve been forced to scrap their game plans due to early deficits, either. They lost 14-9 to the Los Angeles Rams in the opener, 20-19 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 2 and 17-10 to the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, and they haven’t trailed by more than 7 points all season.
There’s also new personnel beyond wideout Nico Collins and tight end Dalton Schultz, the Texans’ two leading receivers in 2024. Wideout Tank Dell and running back Joe Mixon are out with injuries, while receivers Stefon Diggs, John Metchie and Robert Woods were replaced by Xavier Hutchinson and rookie Jayden Higgins, who have combined for 11 catches, 140 yards and no touchdowns through three games. The Texans also replaced offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik with first-time play caller Nick Caley.
Realistically, how many quarterbacks would thrive under these circumstances? It can’t be many. Just look at how much Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs have struggled with shoddy line play and a shortage of proven pass catchers.
Under better circumstances, it’s reasonable to believe Stroud would return to his rookie form. As it stands, however, the Texans have an incomplete evaluation.
How the Texans proceed will be an interesting case study in team building during an era when QB contracts have risen at a disproportionately higher rate than the salary cap. And based on The Athletic’s study this month, there’s been no correlation to having one of the league’s highest-paid QBs and playoff success. However, it has become increasingly obvious that teams have struggled to adapt to this era of paying the market rate for a QB, as they’ve routinely failed to supplement the rest of the roster.
Even if the Texans are firmly convinced Stroud is the guy, they might be wise to remain prudent with the business side. He’s going to be under team control through his fifth-year option in 2027, and the Texans could use franchise tags in 2028 and 2029 to keep him in town. The Baltimore Ravens used their first franchise tag on Lamar Jackson in 2023 before quickly agreeing to a five-year, $260 million extension, so there’s precedent with the patient approach.
The Texans could also use a hybrid model of the Green Bay Packers’ approach with Jordan Love, essentially using a bridge deal in place of the fifth-year option. Love later secured his four-year, $220 million extension.
For instance, Stroud is scheduled to earn $5.7 million in 2026, and his fifth-year option in 2027 is projected at $26.5 million, according to Over The Cap. That would jump to $39.7 million if Stroud is selected to a Pro Bowl on the original ballot or $46 million if he earns two Pro Bowl nods. The Texans could ask to compromise with a two-year, $50 million deal for 2026 and 2027, locking in a substantial raise in the first year as a concession.
Maybe Stroud says no. Maybe the Texans then tell him to play out his rookie deal like Baltimore did with Jackson.
The organization’s gamble, of course, is that Stroud plays his way into a deal worth $60-65 million annually by 2028. But that approach would also give the Texans more time to develop the supporting cast around Stroud.
Before the 2024 season, it wasn’t a stretch to view the Texans as a dark-horse candidate to reach the Super Bowl, and Stroud’s upcoming extension was viewed as a foregone conclusion. He looked like a lock to be the 12th quarterback in the $50 million club.
But the Texans are a flawed team now, and it’s tough to get a complete read on Stroud. They also only have $12.7 million in cap space in 2026 — not even accounting for potential extensions for Stroud and defensive end Will Anderson. There’s work to be done.
If the Texans rush to pay Stroud before the rest of the roster is ready to contend, history shows it will be extremely difficult to break through in the playoffs. He would ease a lot of minds by changing the narrative over the next three months, but Stroud can’t do it alone.
Unfortunately, too often since Stroud’s rookie year, that’s exactly what he’s been asked to do.
Rankings reminder
It’s worth the occasional reminder that these rankings are a rolling composite list of subjective factors that include current performance, past achievements, future potential and organizational support, which includes coaching and personnel around them. Not all factors are weighed equally for each quarterback.
For example, Patrick Mahomes is not producing like the third-best quarterback in the league right now, but his resume is undeniable, and coaches and executives are still raving about his play under the adverse circumstances. That’s an easy one.
Daniel Jones, on a different scale, couldn’t possibly be playing any better through his first three games. He’s currently producing better than his No. 11 ranking, but it’s also been three years since his best season, and the jury is still out on whether Jones or the New York Giants deserves more of the blame for their failed union. How much do we truly know about Jones’ potential now that he’s in a new system? Not much.
To look at it another way, if you’re starting a franchise from scratch, are you taking Jones or Drake Maye? It’s a safe bet that close to 100 percent of respondents would say Maye, but the second-year Patriots star-to-be still needs to clean up the mistakes that have led to inconsistencies.
A similar argument could be made for taking Bryce Young, Caleb Williams and Cam Ward over Mac Jones. But Jones — a backup whose time in the rankings is nearing its end — is playing well for an offensive scheme that is perfectly suited for his game. In this week’s rankings, Jones’ organizational support outweighed the potential of the last three No. 1 picks.
The rankings are never about one variable or one cherry-picked stat. And there’s plenty of feedback solicited from executives and coaches around the league.
Hopefully, this helps you understand the process a little better.
Matchup of the week
Mahomes’ second half against the Giants helped salvage a forgettable start to the season, but let’s not overlook the opponent. The Giants previously allowed Dak Prescott to post his best game in two years.
So, let’s see what Mahomes can do in a far more daunting task against Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens this week. Mahomes has already been outdueled by Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts — with the help, of course, of the superior defenses of the Los Angeles Chargers and Philadelphia Eagles — so the three-time Super Bowl champion should have all the motivation imaginable to exceed the standard while sharing a stage with Jackson.
Motivation and execution can be two very different things, though. And based on Jackson’s performance against a very sturdy Chiefs defense, we might soon find out if Kansas City should still be viewed as a bona fide Super Bowl contender this season — something that would be based more on merit than reputation.
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(Photo: Alex Slitz / Getty Images)
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