Week one is in the books and we are moving on from creampuffs to rivalry road trips as the Hawkeyes head to Ames to square off with Iowa State in the Cy-Hawk game. The Cyclones opened as 2.5-point favorites according to FanDuel Sportsbook. That line has moved up to 3.5 points with the over/under holding steady at 41.5 total points.
A week ago, The Pants took Albany with the points and emerged victorious. We did, however, put too much faith in Tim Lester and the Hawkeye offense. We were eight points heavy on the Hawks and came out on the wrong side of the over/under.
Now, the staff here would never overreact to anything in Hawkeye Nation. But we are ALL on the Cyclones this week. As in, every staffer is taking Iowa State to win outright (and inevitably be completely insufferable, but maybe that’s just going to be the case no matter what?).
On average, we’re calling for a final score of Iowa State 19, Iowa 15. While our collective prediction is for the Cyclones to cover, all but one of us is actually taking the points with the Hawkeyes here. The one thing we can all agree on, however, is this thing is well on the under side of 41.5 total points.
Here’s a look at our individual predictions for Iowa’s trip to Ames to take on the ISU Cyclones.
Individual Staff Predictions
JPinIC
And just like that, all the optimism is gone. Poof. I was all in on this offense in year two with a competent quarterback, but boy, we did not see a competent QB in week one for the Hawkeyes. Mark Gronowski is better than we saw against Albany, but now I really have no idea how much better.
Against Albany, he looked like he was on the road against a top-25 team with that stadium pulse just blasting. Missing easy throws. Immediately checking down when there were wide open receivers downfield. Flat out missing guys running free downfield. It was not great.
And now he actually goes on the road to face off a top-25 opponent in a rivalry game and my confidence is as shaken as his appeared last week. I expect Iowa to go conservative and try to limit his exposure to potential mistakes and that feels like a recipe for a loss.
This game was always going to be difficult for Iowa by virtue of their opponent having played twice as much football as the Hawkeyes have at this point in the season. However, Iowa’s Week One performance did little to inspire confidence about their ability to beat a talented Cyclone squad on the road. Iowa’s passing game looked dreadful behind the surprisingly erratic play of Mark Gronowski, who appeared uncomfortable running the offense after missing all of Spring practice. Add in the injury to Iowa’s top running back Kamari Moulton and the lingering questions about how the Hawkeye back seven will hold up in pass coverage against a good QB, and Iowa State appears well positioned to earn its first Cy-Hawk win at Jack Trice Stadium since 2011.
That being said, Iowa still has a real shot at victory. The Hawkeyes should have the edge on both sides of the line of scrimmage, and the running game looked tremendous against Albany even after Moulton’s departure. Iowa State is also much more vulnerable in pass coverage than they were last year when the Cyclones ranked first in the country in pass defense. Beau Freyler, Malik Verdon, and Myles Purchase are gone, and Kansas State was able to exploit Iowa States’ inexperience in the secondary to produce big gains in their opener. If Gronowski can rip off a few big plays downfield to keep the Cyclone defense honest, Iowa has the formula to escape Ames with a win. If not, expect Iowa State to load the box to stop the Hawkeye run game and retain possession of the Cy-Hawk Trophy for another year.
It’s amazing how much can change in a week. Going into last Saturday’s tilt against the Great Danes of Albany, expectations, and optimism, were riding pretty high for this Iowa team. Then Mark Gronowski came out looking like a deer in headlights (even if I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt, the truth is the truth) and all that optimism soured as soon as his first pass fell incomplete behind Jacob Gill.
Then Kamari Moulton was pulled after just 3 carries and pessimism turned into abject depression. Thankfully, that negativity didn’t seem to find its way to the sideline (or in the locker room at halftime) and the Hawkeyes scored 31 unanswered points to close out the game. Sure, it was ONLY ALBANY, but we’ve all seen games that Iowa is supposed to win go south in a hurry, so if nothing else they get marks for resiliency.
I have no idea what to expect from Gronowski and the Iowa offense Saturday morning in Ames, but I know exactly what to expect from Matt Campbell’s crew, and I gotta be honest, I’m not sure we can stop it even if this year’s QB Saviour plays 100% better than he did last week. This is a Cyclone team that knows how to win big games, and they have a lot more riding on this game than Iowa does. They’ve got a veteran QB, experienced RBs, an Iowa-esque group of TEs, and the ability to make explosive plays that I’m not sure Iowa’s secondary is fully prepared to stop.
With that being said, this is not the Cyclone defense that powered them to 11 wins last year. There’s a lot of weaknesses that are ripe for exploitation, especially by an Iowa OLine that looks as good as they’ve looked in several years. If Gronowski can be 50-75% better, the OLine can open holes that are even 50% as big as the ones X and TJ had last week, and the Secondary can keep everything in front of them, the Hawks have more than a punchers chance to walk out of Ames with a trophy in tow.
Unfortunately, I don’t think that this Iowa team is there yet and I think they’re likely to drop a heartbreaker to a team whose experience playing as a unit (on both sides of the ball) gives them the edge.
Iowa State 20, Iowa 17 (and I have a sneaky feeling that this win will come off the foot of Kyle Konrardy for a second year in a row).
I pegged this one as a loss ahead of the season and I saw nothing in week 1 to make me change my mind. If anything, it made me more confident in my pick. After the best season in school history, a tough win in Ireland, and standing on business against an overmatched FCS team, Iowa State should have all the confidence in the world to win their second consecutive Cy-Hawk game.
Now, this being El Assico, weird things have a tendency to happen. It would not shock me one bit if Iowa came out firing on all cylinders, Gronowski showing us the quarterback we were promised, and the Hawkeyes turning Iowa State over and forcing them into mistakes. I’d love nothing better than for Kirk Ferentz to make history on a rival’s field with every red and yellow (or black) clad Cyclone fans watching. That’s what I’d like but I still think Matt Campbell gets his team their first win in Ames since 2011.
Consensus: ISU 19, Iowa 15
So there you have it – the Cyclones do the unthinkable and win two in a row in the Cy-Hawk series while picking up their first win over Iowa at home in a decade.
Please, Hawkeye fans, tell us we’re losing our minds! How do you all see this one playing out?
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