The Hawkeyes are poised to hit the road to open up Big Ten play as they travel to Piscataway to take on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. Iowa opened at -3.5 but has seen that line drop down to -2.5 according to FanDuel Sportsbook. The over/under is set at 45.5 total points. That gives us an implied final score of Iowa 24, Rutgers 21.5 according to the folks out in the desert.
Here at The Pants, we’re…. optimistic? That feels strange and wrong to type, but that’s what the numbers say, even if our words don’t.
On average, our staff is predicting a final score of Iowa 24, Rutgers 18. That puts us pretty clearly on the Hawks giving the points, somehow. Beyond that, not a one of us isn’t taking Iowa to win even giving the points. That does still put us on the under though, so we aren’t totally crazy!
Just to keep ourselves honest, we will continue tracking our season-long record. We had a rough week last week as we didn’t believe enough in the offense. As you’ll recall, we had the Minutemen with the points and were on the under. Both missed and we fall to 2-4 with our picks on the year. We’ll see if like last week’s offensive performance, we can use this week to “get right.”
Here’s a look at our individual predictions for Iowa’s trip to Rutgers.
Individual Staff Predictions
I am not totally sold on this offense yet, as I’m sure most are not. But I do think there is more here on defense than I had expected pre-season. I’m genuinely shocked the defense hasn’t created a single turnover through three games (the muffed punt at ISU was a special teams play, obviously), but I think Rutgers will be more aggressive in putting the ball in harm’s way this week. Kaliakmanis has yet to throw a pick and the Knights have not yet lost a fumble. I think Phil Parker ratchets things up a bit and we see them take some chances this week against an offense that has been humming along. The Hawks are 13th nationally in pass defense and 6th in rush defense. I think they find a way to slow down Rutgers and create at least one short field for the offense.
On the other side of the ball, the Knights are 90th nationally in rush defense, allowing nearly 150 yards per game on the ground. I expect Iowa to play relatively conservative with the ball, but rush for 200+ again. That, combined with a short-field score from the defense’s first turnover of the year is the difference in this one to me.
Iowa did what I wanted them to do against UMass and while I don’t harbor any illusions that it magically fixed what ails this offense, it’s a step in the right direction. They needed to show fans and to prove to themselves that they can put up big numbers, even if the opponent was hopelessly outgunned. They won’t do that against Rutgers but they should have some confidence to carry over.
Rutgers hasn’t scored less than 34 points so far this season but their competition has been two MAC schools and Norfolk State. Iowa should be an exponentially tougher test than that so I don’t see the Scarlet Knights putting up gaudy numbers. I also think the defense finally gets their first interception of the year to work on earning back the “Doughboyz” moniker. Gronowski has a solid but unremarkable day as Jaziun Patterson and Nathan McNeil do most of the damage. It’s close into the fourth quarter before an Iowa score and Rutgers turnover seal the deal.
I don’t like CFB on Friday nights, and I’m not generally a fan of games where Iowa has to change time zones, but they seem to do pretty well in certain spots out east and, fortunately, Piscataway is one of those places. Rutgers has put up a lot of points against some pretty mediocre competition thus far, and while they haven’t necessarily given up a ton of points, they’ve given up a LOT of yards against that competition. I’m not sure Iowa’s offense is where it needs to be, but Rutger’s defense is, well, not very good at the moment and that bodes well for us.
Rutgers offense has looked good against mediocre to bad teams, but they haven’t been tested by a defense like Iowa’s, which also bodes well, and we might even get to see Kamari Moulton on the field for more than 3 carries. Gronowski has improved steadily in each game and looked pretty solid against an overmatched UMass team, if the WRs can limit the drops and the OLine can exploit Rutgers rush defense, this should be a very winnable game.
This is a huge game for both teams. Iowa needs a win to start Big Ten play to have any hope of making noise in the conference race or emerging as a playoff dark horse, while Rutgers may need to protect home field against the Hawkeyes to make bowl eligibility. Expect both teams to bring their A-games for this Friday night matchup.
The Rutgers offense has looked excellent so far this season, but there is plenty of reason for skepticism given the level of competition Greg Schiano’s team has played and the past struggles of QB Athan Kaliakmanis. Rutgers has a strong trio of receivers that will test Iowa’s secondary, which has yet to generate any takeaways this season. Whether Iowa’s back seven can hold up against the pass may be a good indicator of how the Hawkeye defense will fare against some of the more pass-happy opponent it will play in the weeks to come. Fortunately, the Hawkeye pass rush should be able to make some hay against a Rutgers offensive line that still has a lot of questions coming into this game.
Iowa’s best path for victory is by running the ball against a Scarlet Knight team that has struggled to stop opposing ground games this season. Expect the return of Kamari Moulton to the Hawkeye backfield to propel Iowa to its first road and conference win of the season.
Well, I think I can say this is the last time I’ll pick the Hawkeyes with confidence this season and that confidence is primarily coming from the fact that: it’s Rutgers. Kirk Ferentz also has a pretty good record in short turnaround games like this on the road where the opponent shouldn’t win (oddly specific, I know), so I don’t feel like this is necessarily a trap game either. I haven’t watched any Rutgers football this season (has anyone?) so I don’t know if they’re actually good at all, but I also feel pretty confident that if the Hawkeyes lose this game, we’re looking at 6-6 as the best possible outcome for this season, if not worse.
So let’s hope we get this win.
Consensus: Iowa 24, Rutgers 18
So there you have it – we’re believers in Phil Parker and the defense and maybe saw just enough out of the offense to think the Hawkeyes can muster more than two scores.
How about you, Hawkeye fans? Let’s hear those predictions!
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