Immediate fantasy football takeaways from Sunday’s games

Ashton Jeanty has strong usage: Jeanty is in a great position for future fantasy success, even though he only averaged 2.0 yards per carry this week.

The Raiders had one of the most unsettled running back rooms last year, going from Zamir White to Alexander Mattison to Sincere McCormick to Ameer Abdullah. This year, the opposite should be true after the Raiders spent their first-round pick on Jeanty. They retained White and Dylan Laube to be the backups while bringing in veteran Raheem Mostert, who was a healthy inactive for the game after getting surpassed by White on the depth chart during training camp, while Laube provides more special teams value.

Jeanty played 86% of the Raiders’ offensive snaps, which is ideal for a fantasy running back. The one area where Zamir White sometimes took snaps from Jeanty was on third downs. While 100% of the snaps is the perfect usage for a fantasy running back, losing just a few snaps on third downs is the second-best situation. While the person who drafted Jeanty is unlikely to give up on him after one week, it can’t hurt to send a trade offer just in case.

Raiders’ new wide receiver room: The Raiders made multiple changes to the wide receiver room this offseason.

The Raiders had a similarly unsettled wide receiver room last year, particularly after trading away Davante Adams. Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker were the top two players on the depth chart, while several players played as the third wide receiver. The Raiders shouldn’t have the same problem this year after adding Dont’e Thornton in the third round and Jack Bech in the second. Thornton was the clear starter throughout the preseason as their X receiver, while Tucker played Z, and Meyers played in the slot. The Raiders added Amari Cooper after cut-down day to help solidify the room, but he retired earlier this week. The Raiders activated Alex Bachman from the practice squad to help take Cooper’s place.

The Raiders maintained the same rotation as the preseason with their top three receivers. Las Vegas didn’t use 12 personnel with their starters in the preseason, so we didn’t know which two wide receivers would be on the field. The Raiders consistently used Meyers and Tucker in 12 personnel. While Thornton seemed like a great wide receiver sleeper, it will be much harder for him to have fantasy value without playing in two-receiver sets. While Tucker caught two passes for 54 yards and a touchdown, for the time being, it seems like Meyers will be the Raiders’ only wide receiver with fantasy value.

Monitor Brock Bowers’ health: Bowers suffered a knee injury early in the fourth quarter and didn’t return.

The Raiders retained their top two tight ends from last season in Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer. Over the last five weeks of last season, Bowers played 92% of Las Vegas’ offensive snaps to Mayer’s 73%. Bowers was playing 74% of the snaps out of 11 personnel on early downs compared to 83% on third downs, while the two were almost always on the field together in two-tight-end sets. The preseason suggested that Mayer could be cutting into Bowers’ snaps in 11 personnel, particularly on early downs.

Those playing time concerns played out over the first three quarters, where Bowers played in 32 of a possible 45 snaps. Bowers was pretty consistently on the field in two- and three-tight-end sets, but he only played 15 of 27 snaps in 11 personnel over the three quarters. He was consistently on the field on third downs and during the two-minute drill. The Raiders had eight third downs and seven snaps in two-minute drills.

On 14 snaps out of 11 personnel on early downs, outside of the two-minute drill, Bowers played three snaps, Mayer played seven, and Ian Thomas played four. Typically, teams will run more plays out of 11 personnel on early downs outside of the two-minute drill than third down or two-minute-drill plays combined. This means we should expect Bowers’ snap rate to be even lower than it was in the first three quarters of this game.

Bowers suffered a knee injury in the fourth quarter and didn’t return. It does not sound like it will be a long-term injury, but there is a chance it could impact him in the short term. Bowers caught five passes for 103 yards with multiple big plays against the Patriots defense. He remains a must-start option despite the playing time, but there will be some games where his stat line won’t live up to his reputation because he’s running fewer routes.

New England’s surprising running back rotation: TreVeyon Henderson played significant snaps in his first game, but he was not the Patriots’ third-down back.

The Raiders weren’t the only team to make a big move at running back on draft day, as the Patritos added TreVeyon Henderson. He joins Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson. The preseason suggested that Henderson was going to be a significant part of the Patriots’ plans but only on third downs and some early downs. This was true in the first preseason game when he rotated with Stevenson, and the second when he rotated with Gibson. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels’ history suggests the Patriots will stick with a two- or three-man committee.

While McDaniels typically has a third-down back and an early-down back, that wasn’t the case this week. Stevenson was the main running back in all situations. Generally, Stevenson dominated snaps in the first and third quarters and was in much more of a rotation in the second and fourth quarters.

Henderson should probably not be in fantasy starting lineups in the short term, but this might be good news for him in the long run. If McDaniels used the same running back rotation he used throughout his 18 years as a head coach and offensive coordinator, Henderson would have played more on third downs, and his upside on early downs would be limited throughout the entire season. The fact that Stevenson and Henderson both played in early-down and passing situations means there is a chance that at some point this season, that usage flips. Based on how the two players looked in this game, that flip could arrive sooner rather than later. The only concern is that Stevenson remains the goal-line back the entire year, making it harder for Henderson to score touchdowns.

The Patriots utilized a clear wide receiver rotation: New England had four different receivers who all played significant snaps.

New England similarly made changes to their wide receiver room, retaining DeMario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte, adding free agents Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins, drafting Kyle Williams in the third round and retaining undrafted rookie Efton Chism III, who was a healthy inactive in this game. It was clear during the preseason that Douglas would be the starting slot receiver. It was also clear there would be some kind of rotation on the outside, but it was unclear what that rotation would look like, particularly because Diggs didn’t play in the preseason.

Boutte, Diggs and Douglas were the primary receivers in three-receiver sets, while Boutte and Hollins were the primary receivers in two-receiver sets. This left Boutte as the Patriots’ lead receiver, catching six passes for 103 yards. This makes Boutte at least worth considering off the waiver wire, as any wide receiver with 100 yards after Week 1 is worth considering. It’s probably that Diggs will play more as he gets more comfortable with the team, but it’s also possible he remains in a rotation. It will be much harder to trust him in fantasy starting lineups if he’s not playing the majority of two-tight-end sets.

It’s also worth noting that Williams appears to be a distant fifth on the depth chart. While it’s possible he can surpass Hollins at some point, it seems unlikely that he will surpass Boutte or Diggs, which would be necessary for Williams to have any fantasy value this season.

Hunter Henry sees an increased role: Hunter played a higher percentage of New England’s offensive snaps in this game than in the past.

The Patriots kept their same two tight ends as last season, with Henry and Austin Hooper. Henry was the clear lead tight end, playing 81% of the snaps over the season. This included 71% of the early-down snaps out of 11 personnel and 79% on third downs. In this game, Henry was simply the clear lead tight end. He played 92% of the 11 personnel snaps on early downs and 93% on third downs.

Henry has had a few excellent games in recent seasons but more often than not has not had fantasy value, making it very difficult to trust him. With this increased workload, he becomes a safer option in fantasy starting lineups. His stat line of four receptions and 66 yards certainly helps. He was someone I was low on during draft season, given Hooper’s experience with both offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels with the Raiders and head coach Mike Vrabel with the Titans. However, the usage in this game changes my opinion on his outlook this season.

Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints

The Saints improved wide receiver room: The Saints added new wide receivers and are much healthier at the position compared to last season.

The Saints’ wide receiver room looks almost completely different from the end of last season. Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed are healthy, while the team spent the offseason adding Brandin Cooks, Devaughn Vele and Trey Palmer. Palmer was a healthy inactive for New Orleans.

The Saints’ wide receiver rotation was simple. Olave and Shaheed were their every-down receivers, while Cooks joined them in three-receiver sets. Vele also received significant playing time as a backup to everyone in 11 personnel while also taking some snaps in two-receiver sets. The big question was who would line up in the slot, given head coach Kellen Moore’s history of fantasy success with their slot receivers.

The answer was everyone. All four wide receivers played between 52-64% of the snaps out wide and 37-48% in the slot. There is a chance those rates change over time, but for now, it doesn’t seem like any wide receiver in particular will have an advantage from the slot role. Olave dominated targets for the team and brought in seven passes for 54 yards. He remains a borderline fantasy starter, while Shaheed received enough targets and playing time to make him worth rostering.

Juwan Johnson had a career game: Johnson caught eight passes for 76 yards, leading the Saints. This tied his career high in receptions and was his third-best game in receiving yards.

The Saints historically used a significant rotation at tight end. Last season, that included Johnson, Foster Moreau and Taysom Hill. With Moreau and Hill starting the season on the PUP list, Johnson was the last man standing.

Instead of continuing a rotation with other players, Johnson was the every-down tight end for New Orleans. His 98.7% snap rate was the best among tight ends for the first 10 games of the week. The majority of tight ends with that high of a snap rate are worth rostering in fantasy leagues. There is a chance his role will decrease once the other tight ends are healthy again, but until then, Johnson is at least worth considering.

Trey Benson wins the third-down job: Benson played more than usual because of the third-down snaps.

Last season, James Conner was the early-down back, Benson was the backup, and Emari Demercado was the receiving back. During the preseason, it seemed like Demercado could be losing his third-down job. He was rotating with some running backs who didn’t make the roster in preseason games, suggesting his roster spot could be in jeopardy. While Demercado made the roster, he did not play an offensive snap in this game.

Instead, Benson played the clear majority of snaps on third downs. On early downs, Benson played 25% of the snaps, which was a little better than his typical game from last season. However, Conner played 73% of the early-down snaps, which was also a little high compared to his typical game.

This change probably won’t be enough for Benson to have standalone fantasy value, but it’s good news for his career in general. He remains one of the top handcuff options, as he would take over on early downs if Conner got injured.

Cardinals adjust wide receiver rotation: Michael Wilson played less often on early downs than last year and played more in the slot.

The Cardinals made minimal changes to their offense, retaining their top three running backs, five wide receivers and four tight ends from last season. The most notable difference in the preseason appeared to be a change at wide receiver. Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson were the two primary receivers in two-receiver sets last season. Still, it appeared that Zay Jones would significantly cut into Wilson’s time in two-receiver sets. Wilson was only a borderline player to roster in fantasy leagues, and a decrease in playing time would lead him to be a player to leave off rosters.

While Jones didn’t completely overtake Wilson on two-receiver sets, he did take 30% of the snaps. Greg Dortch also took 15%, leaving only 55% for Wilson. While Wilson played 100% of the snaps in three- and four-receiver sets, this still left Wilson playing less than nearly every game from last season. Wilson also took 40% of his snaps from the slot, which was higher than all but three games last season.

While Wilson isn’t rostered in a high percentage of leagues, it’s likely better to take a shot at another wide receiver at the bottom of your fantasy roster.

Miscellaneous Notes

• Alvin Kamara received slightly higher usage in this game than his average game from last season at a 78.8% snap rate. 
• The Saints only have two tight ends on their roster, so they activated Jack Stoll from the practice squad before the game.
• Trey McBride already had some of the best utilization in the league, but his 97% snap rate tied his best game from the 2024 season.
• Bam Knight made the Cardinals roster as a fourth running back but was a healthy inactive for this game.

---

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Jets

The Steelers’ surprising running back rotation: The preseason suggested Kenneth Gainwell would play significant snaps, but he surprisingly led the Steelers’ running backs in offensive snaps.

The Steelers moved on from long-time starting running back Najee Harris this offseason, elevating Jaylen Warren to the starting lineup, while bringing in veteran Kenneth Gainwell and adding third-round rookie Kaleb Johnson. While most assumed that Johnson would be the early-down back while Warren was the receiving back, the preseason pointed toward Warren playing on early downs, while Gainwell plays on third downs, and Johnson was third on the depth chart.

Rather than a traditional two-man rotation with one player playing the clear majority of the early-down snaps and the other playing in passing situations, the backfield resembled Pittsburgh from last season. Warren took on the Harris role, and Gainwell took Warren’s role. Warren played a very slight majority of the early-down snaps, and he took all of the short-yardage and goal-line work. 

Warren led the team in carries, which should continue going forward, and Warren scored the receiving touchdown, but Gainwell is a waiver-wire target. It’s at least possible that Gainwell earns a larger role going forward. 

Johnson played two offensive snaps, both late into the third quarter. While you don’t want to give up on a rookie too early, it’s probably worth dropping him from most normal leagues or leagues with light benches. While he will probably see his role increase as the year progresses, that would simply lead to a three-man rotation. At best, it would be a two-man rotation, where Johnson is playing roughly half of the early-down snaps. This would be true even if one of the other two backs suffered an injury. There are plenty of other better handcuff options that are worth rostering in case there is an injury. In leagues with deeper benches, it’s fine to hold onto him just in case a best-case scenario happens.

The Steelers have a clear WR2, but not a WR3: Calvin Austin III caught four passes for 70 yards and a touchdown, making him Pittsburgh’s second wide receiver option.

Pittsburgh swapped out X wide receivers this offseason, trading away George Pickens and trading for D.K. Metcalf. They also moved on from starter Van Jefferson, leaving the door open for one more spot with the starters. Based on the preseason, that competition was wide open. After cut-down day, that was only a battle between Roman Wilson, Scotty Miller and Ben Skowronek.

Austin was the presumed WR2, but he missed some time in the preseason due to injury. However, this game made it very clear that there is a gap between him and the other three receivers. Scotty Miller was both Metcalf and Austin’ III’s backup, while Skowronek and Wilson split time in 11 personnel. Typically, Skowronek was in the slot and Austin was out wide when Skowronek was on the field, while Wilson was out wide and Austin played in the slot when Wilson was on the field.

Austin is worth a waiver-wire add at this point. Aaron Rodgers has a long history with wide receivers who can play both out wide and in the slot, and Austin is the Steelers’ only wide receiver who fits that description. If Rodgers keeps playing as well as he did in this game, then Austin could be a fantasy starter in the right matchups.

Arthur Smith maintains his tight end rotation philosophy: Jonnu Smith, Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington all played significant snap.

At the beginning of the offseason, Smith was a top-10 tight end option in Miami. Freiermuth was a perfectly acceptable backup option in fantasy leagues as the Steelers’ lead tight end. Then the Steelers traded for Smith, making it much harder to trust either player. Smith never played in the preseason, making it difficult to know what the rotation might look like. However, given Arthur Smith’s history as an offensive coordinator and his long history with Jonnu Smith, it seemed pretty likely the two would be in for a significant rotation.

There was no clear receiving tight end for Pittsburgh, as the Steelers had three snaps on third downs, and all three tight ends took one snap each. Smith and Freiermuth were typically the two tight ends in two-tight-end sets. Smith ended up with more snaps than Freiermuth, largely from Washington taking time from Freiermuth on third downs.

Washington took 11 of 18 snaps in one-tight-end sets on early downs. This was particularly noteworthy, as Freiermuth played 65% of those snaps last season to Washington’s 25%.  Freiermuth had the most receiving yards, but Smith had the most receptions and scored the touchdown. Generally, this usage suggests Smith will be the best fantasy tight end of the three for the season, but this remains a situation to avoid.

Breece Hall dominates despite rotating: Hall didn’t play as much as last season, but he ran 19 times for 107 yards and caught two passes for 38 yards.

The Jets kept the same three players at the top of their depth chart from last season, including Hall, Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis. Last season, Hall played 72% of New York’s offensive snaps when healthy, while Allen played 27% and Davis played 10%. Hall played a clear majority of the early-down and passing-down snaps while playing roughly 55-60% of the short-yardage and goal-line snaps, and Allen taking a lot of that work.

The Jets’ running back rotation was similar to their second preseason game. Hall led a two-man rotation with Allen on early downs, and Davis took the passing-down work. It was promising for Hall to see over half of the short-yardage and goal-line work combined, considering this is a situation where Allen typically excels. However, Allen ended up scoring a touchdown on an eight-yard run.

Hall can still be a fantasy starter playing 57.8% of New York’s offensive snaps, but it will be much harder than in past years when he played a higher snap rate. If there is a game script where the Jets are falling behind, this could lead to a significant increase in Davis’ snaps compared to this game, meaning much fewer snaps for Hall. He is someone I’d consider selling high for a running back with a more stable role.

The Jets had a predictable wide receiver box score: Garrett Wilson caught seven passes for 95 yards, while all other wide receivers caught four passes for 49 yards.

The Jets made some noteworthy changes to their wide receiver room, moving on from Davante Adams and Malachi Corley while adding Josh Reynolds and fourth-round rookie Arian Smith. The preseason made it clear that Reynolds was the starting X receiver. The Jets’ new coaching staff largely arrived from the Detroit Lions, and Reynolds played the X role there from 2021 to 2023. Garrett Wilson was the other starting receiver. Tyler Johnson was the third wide receiver in the preseason but was cut from the team. He was activated from the practice squad prior to the game. Allen Lazard was the other player in contention for that starting job, but he was a healthy inactive.

Reynolds continued to be the second wide receiver as expected, while Johnson almost always joined the two for three-receiver sets. Arian Smith played a few snaps, some in Johnson’s place in 11 personnel and some in Reynolds’ place in 12 personnel. Wilson played every offensive snap. While Johnson was the primary slot receiver for the team, Wilson played 35.9% of the snaps in the slot, which was a notable uptick from last season.

Wilson remains a must-start player, while the rest of the wide receivers can be ignored from a fantasy perspective until someone steps up.

Mason Taylor sees a positive snap rate but a quiet stat line: Taylor played 87.5% of New York’s offensive snaps but caught his only target for 20 yards.

New York moved on from Tyler Conklin, the Jets’ lead tight end of the last two seasons, in favor of second-round rookie Mason Taylor. Taylor missed some time in the preseason, but in his limited time, he split snaps with Jeremy Ruckert.

The rotation in this game was much different, as Taylor rarely left the field. The two shared the field for all of their two-tight-end sets. Taylor played over 90% of the 11 personnel snaps on third downs and 77% on early downs.

While there are a few tight ends in the league with a very high snap rate mixed with a low target rate that aren’t worth rostering in fantasy leagues, it’s not fair to put Taylor in that category after one game. It’s more likely his target rate increases than his snap rate decreases. I’d rather pick up Taylor off the waivers now to see if his target rate will increase than leave him on waivers and have to fight for him after his first big game.

---

New York Giants @ Washington Commanders

Jacory Croskey-Merritt leads the Commanders’ backfield: The seventh-round rookie running back lived up to the hype in his first NFL game.

The Commanders’ backfield generated significant buzz in the last month after Croksey-Merritt started their first preseason game, and they traded away last year’s starter, Brian Robinson Jr.. This left Washington with a four-man backfield with Croskey-Merritt, Chris Rodriguez, Austin Ekeler and Jeremy McNichols. Rodriguez started a preseason game, suggesting he was in the running for the starting job, but he was a healthy inactive for this game.

Ekeler started the game and took all 13 snaps in the first quarter. He was also the clear third-down and two-minute-drill back, which we expect for the rest of the season. However, from the second quarter until the end of the game, Croskey-Merritt took 22 snaps on early downs outside of the two-minute drills, compared to McNichols and Ekeler’s nine. Croskey-Merritt ran 10 times for 82 yards and a touchdown.

This means we can probably expect a slight increase in Croskey-Merritt’s snap total next week. Croskey-Merritt will always be restricted by an offense with a running quarterback and a two-man backfield, but he has likely reached the point where you can start him in games where the Commanders are clear favorites.

The Commanders continue their wide receiver rotation with new receivers: Washington rotated its wide receivers more than most teams last season, and that continued to be the case despite some new faces.

Washington made multiple changes near the top of their wide receiver depth chart, moving on from both Dyami Brown and Olamide Zaccheaus, while trading for Deebo Samuel and drafting Jaylin Lane in the fourth round.

McLaurin and Samuel were the primary wide receivers in two-receiver sets and played the clear majority of three-receiver sets. Brown often joined them in three-receiver sets. However, Washington had no problem rotating their wide receivers last season, including Terry McLaurin. Both McLaurin and Samuel were held under 80% of Washington’s offensive snaps. Lane rotated with Brown significantly in three-receiver sets, while Brown and Chris Moore rotated a lot with McLaurin and Samuel in three-receiver sets.

Samuel was the Commanders’ clear leader in the wide receiver room, catching seven passes for 77 yards. Most of his snaps came out of the slot, unlike his time with the 49ers. McLaurin was held to two receptions for 27 yards. We can expect better games from McLaurin in the future, but we shouldn’t expect much more playing time.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. leads the running back rotation for now: Tracy was the Giants’ primary running back in every situation.

The New York Giants drafted Cam Skattebo with their fourth-round pick. Many thought he could challenge Tracy for the starting job. However, Skattebo missed significant time in training camp due to an injury, only playing in the final preseason game.

Tracy played 73.5% of New York’s offensive snaps, which was better than his snap rate to end last season but not as good as some parts in the middle of the season when Tracy was at his best. The situation he played least-often last year was on third downs, where he played 46.6% of the snaps. That was the situation he played most often in this game at 92.3%. This suggests his passing-down role could be most secure.

Devin Singletary and Skattebo split snaps in other opportunities. For the time being, Tracy can be a borderline fantasy starter. However, he only ran 10 times for 24 yards and caught two passes for 11 yards. Skattebo needs to remain on fantasy rosters despite only playing eight snaps in this game, as his snap rate will likely improve over time.

Miscellaneous Notes

• Zach Ertz played 64.3% of Washington’s offensive snaps, which is a tad less than last season. John Bates took more of his 11 personnel snaps on early downs, but Ertz played a little more than usual in two-tight-end sets. This meant less playing time for Ben Sinnott rather than more. If Ertz suffers an injury, we should expect Bates to be the primary tight end, rather than Sinnott.
• Giants tight end Theo Johnson’s 77.9% snap rate was also less than usual, as Daniel Bellinger took some time away from him in both single- and two-tight-end sets.
• New York’ wide receiver usage was exactly the same as last season. Malik Nabers and Darius Slayton played in two receiver sets, and Wan’Dale Robinson joined them for three receiver sets.
• The Commanders activated Chris Moore from the practice squad prior to the game, giving them a sixth wide receiver on the roster.

---

---

Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos

The Titans relied heavily on Tony Pollard: He led the team in both rushing yards and receiving yards.

While the Titans’ running back depth chart ended up similar to last season, they were missing Tyjae Spears for this game. He will be out for the first four games, giving Tony Pollard a chance to shine. Last season, he averaged 83.5% of his team’s offensive snaps in games that Spears played fewer than 20 snaps and Pollard was healthy. In those games, he averaged 15.0 PPR points per game with 18.8 rushing attempts per game and three receptions per game.

In this game, Pollard’s playing time was even larger, finishing with an 89.5% snap rate. That was the best rate by a running back over the first 14 games of Week 1. He ran the ball 18 times for 60 yards and caught his only target for 29 yards. While the Titans’ offense didn’t look great, Pollard should remain in fantasy starting lineups for as long as Spears is out, thanks to his volume alone.

Elic Ayomanor starts for the Titans: Ayomanor had successfully won a starting job for Tennessee opposite Calvin Ridley.

Tennessee’s wide receiver room underwent a complete makeover this offseason. Ridley was the only player near the top of the depth chart who was retained. The Titans added veterans Tyler Lockett and Van Jefferson and drafted Ayomanor and Chimere Dike in the fourth round to round out the top of the depth chart. The preseason revealed that Lockett would be the third receiver in three-receiver sets. As the preseason progressed, it appeared that Ayomanor was pushing Jefferson for the starting job. Ayomanor appeared first on the unofficial depth chart.

In this case, the unofficial depth chart was correct. Ayomanor played 75% of Tennessee’s offensive snaps in 12 personnel and 82.5% in 11 personnel. Ayomanor was the X receiver as expected, while Ridley played the Z role, and Lockett played in the slot. Dike was a Lockett’s backup, while Jefferson was a Ayomanor’s backup.

This didn’t lead to any fantasy production from anyone, as Ridley led the wide receivers with four receptions for 27 yards. It’s fine to roster Ayomanor in deeper leagues in case the Titans offense improves, but the offense will need to play better for anyone to have fantasy value.

Chig Okonkwo’s playing time improves: Okonkwo’s playing time increased slowly but surely last season, and that improvement continued in this game.

The Titans’ top tight end from last season remains the same in Okonkwo, but they made a change at the backup tight end spot with rookie Gunnar Helm. Okonkwo played 37 of a possible 41 snaps with the starters over three preseason games, suggesting he would have a much larger role in the offense after playing just 60.8% of offensive snaps last season.

Okonkwo played 87.7% of the team’s offensive snaps this week. This included 88.5% of the 11-personnel snaps on early downs and 94.1% in two-tight-end sets. The only concern is that he only played 78.6% of the third-down snaps, while Helm took the rest of the snaps. That suggests if Helm were to earn more playing time, it could be at the expense of Okonkwo on passing downs.

Okonkwo should be among the top waiver tight ends based on his playing time, although the state of the Titans’ offense could persuade some fantasy managers to take a chance on a rookie instead.

The Broncos use a three-man running back rotation: Tyler Badie was the Broncos’ passing-down back, complicating their running back situation.

The Broncos had one of the most confusing backfields during the 2024 season. Denver made two major upgrades with second-round rookie R.J. Harvey and veteran J.K. Dobbins. However, this still left a big mystery about how the Broncos would use their running backs. The preseason made it clear that Dobbins was very likely to be the third-down back, but it was unclear how snaps would be distributed between the two in all other situations, or if any other running back on the depth chart would be involved. Our first answer came 90 minutes before the game, as Jaleel McLaughlin was a healthy inactive for the team.

While fantasy managers were hopeful this would be a two-man rotation, Badie played the majority of third downs and two-minute drill snaps, which leaves fewer snaps for Dobbins and Harvey. Dobbins led the backfield on early downs, taking roughly two snaps to Harvey’s one. The two had nearly identical yards per carry, except a 50-yard run by Harvey. However, Dobbins ran the ball more often and scored the touchdown. Most discouraging is that Harvey was only targeted once, catching a pass for -1 yards.

For the time being, it appears like Dobbins is the fantasy starter and Harvey is someone to leave on the bench. However, based on Harvey’s big play, it wouldn’t be surprising if he earns more playing time in the near future. Regardless of the split, as long as Badie is making this a three-man rotation, this is likely a situation that will be a headache for fantasy managers.

Troy Franklin finished second in snaps for Denver: Marvin Mims appeared set for a significant increase in playing time, but instead, he played less than in last year’s playoff game.

The Broncos made a few changes to their wide receiver depth chart, allowing Lil’Jordan Humphrey to leave in free agency and trading away Devaughn Vele. Veteran Trent Sherfield Sr. and third-round rookie Pat Bryant took their place. Mims had appeared to be the biggest winner in all of the movement, playing 37 of the 40 snaps with the starters in the preseason.

However, Franklin, who mostly played in the slot in three-receiver sets in the preseason, ended up as the primary wide receiver in two-receiver sets across from Courtland Sutton. Mims was on the field much more consistently on third downs than in the past, but his minimal usage in two-receiver sets offset that. Mims also played in the slot on only 22.5% of the snaps, which is the position where he thrived in the past. While Franklin also played the majority of three-receiver sets, he rotated with Sherfield.

Franklin could be considered a waiver-wire target at this point, while Mims could be someone to drop. However, given how much Sean Payton changes things from one week to another, this is a situation that could change as early as next week.

Monitor Evan Engram’s health: Engram suffered a calf injury. He tried to return for one play in the fourth quarter but decided against playing again after that play.

The Broncos’ tight ends have not been on fantasy radars in any league size in the first two years of Sean Payton being the head coach. That changed this off-season, when the team added Engram from the Jacksonville Jaguars. Engram played 33 of 54 snaps in the preseason when both he and Adam Trautman were playing, while Trautman took 27 snaps, suggesting this would remain a heavy rotation.

The Broncos continued their rotation through the first three quarters of this game. Engram only played in 25 of a possible 57 snaps, running a route on 17 of 35 pass plays. It is near-impossible to have fantasy value at tight end running a route on less than 50% of the team’s pass routes. He caught three passes for 21 yards.

Part of the problem is that Lucas Krull was also part of the rotation, which wasn’t the case in the preseason. Engram’s only snap in a two-tight-end set was out of 02 personnel. The Broncos used 12 personnel for 10 plays in the first three quarters, and Trautman and Krull were the two tight ends for all 10 of those plays.

While Engram was drafted to be a fantasy starting tight end, it’s not out of the question to drop him, particularly if he misses time due ot the calf injury. 

Miscellaneous Notes

• Broncos backup blocking tight end Nate Adkins was declared out on Friday due to an ankle injury. Denver elevated fullback Adam Prentice from the practice squad to help fill his role.
• Denver signed Sam Ehlinger to the 53-man roster on Saturday, giving them three quarterbacks.

---

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks

Christian McCaffrey has high production but lacks efficiency: McCaffrey averaged 3.1 yards per carry and 8.1 yards per catch but touched the ball 31 times.

McCaffrey scared fantasy managers early in the week by showing up on the injury report with a calf injury, leading him to be questionable. This put into question whether he would play in Week 1, and if so, how much. Behind him, the 49ers made it clear that newcomer Brian Robinson Jr. was the new backup to the team over incumbent backup Isaac Guerendo.

McCaffrey played 76% of the 49ers’ offensive snaps, which is less than we’re used to in a typical game. Some of that could have been the injury, but some of it could have also been needing more breaks after his 31 touches. Nearly all of his plays off came on early downs, with Robinson taking his place. That made it fairly clear that Robinson is the backup and Guerendo is the third stringer.

McCaffrey is, of course, a must-start player as long as he’s playing. Robinson needs to be on rosters, as he appears to be the clear backup, given McCaffrey’s injury history. Guerendo can likely be cut in most leagues. The fact that Guerendo didn’t play a single offensive snap is telling of how much higher the 49ers view Robinson relative to Guerendo, suggesting Robinson would have a large role if McCaffrey missed time this season.

Monitor Jauan Jennings‘ health: Jennings suffered a shoulder injury early in the fourth quarter and didn’t return.

The 49ers’ wide receiver room has dealt with several injuries before Week 1. Brandon Aiyuk is starting the season on the PUP list, Jacob Cowing and Trent Taylor are on injured reserve, rookie Jordan Watkins was inactive due to an ankle injury, and Demarcus Robinson is serving a three-game suspension. On the bright side, Jauan Jennings, who sat out training camp due to an injury and a holdout, was ready to play this week, joining Ricky Pearsall as the three starters. The backups were Russell Gage, a practice-squad call-up playing his first regular-season game since 2022, in addition to Skyy Moore and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who both joined the team very late in the offseason.

Jennings and Pearsall were the clear top two receivers over the first three quarters. Jennings played 49 snaps and Pearsall played 44 over the 54 snaps in the first three quarters. Jennings was the X receiver and Pearsall was the Z, while Gage was the third receiver in three-receiver sets. Once Jennings left with the injury, Valdes-Scantling took over as the X receiver.

Pearsall had the most production of the day, catching four passes for 108 yards. If Jennings misses time, that would likely mean more targets for Pearsall going forward.

Monitor George Kittle’s health: Kittle suffered a hamstring injury in the second quarter and missed the rest of the game.

Kittle began the game in his usual role as an every-down tight end. He was off to a great start with four receptions for 25 yards and a touchdown. After he left, the 49ers used two tight ends to replace him. Luke Farrell, who had been the second tight end in two-tight-end sets, played as the early-down tight end. Jake Tonges became the new primary tight end on passing downs. This led Tonges to catch the game-winning touchdown within the last two minutes.

If Kittle misses significant time, anyone needing a tight end should look elsewhere. There were several young tight ends this week who had a large role that would be worth rostering over either of these players in a committee.

Zach Charbonnet cuts into Kenneth Walker III’s playing time: Charbonnet played more often in multiple situations compared to last season and led the team in carries, rushing yards and touchdowns.

The Seahawks’ top two running backs from last season remain the same in Walker and Charbonnet. However, there has been reason to believe their rotation might be different from last season. The Seahawks have a new offensive coordinator, and Walker missed most of training camp due to injuries. Last season, Walker played at least 60% of Seattle’s offensive snaps in all situations, except for third downs, where Charbonnet played over 80% of the snaps on the year.

The running back usage in this game was very different. Walker played 57% of the early-down snaps, which was a step down from last season. Charbonnet took the two-minute drill snaps back and also took the goal-line snaps. This led to a one-yard touchdown run. Charbonnet also averaged nearly twice as many rushing yards per carry as Walker.

There are reasonable arguments toward this backfield going in either running back’s direction. Walker is coming back from injury and could both play better and more once he’s healthier. Charbonnet played better this week, which could earn him more playing time going forward. This will be a situation to watch. If one running back can take a firm hold of the backfield, they would have top-10 potential due to how much the Seahawks want to run the ball.

The Seahawks have a brand new wide receiver room: The top two wide receivers from the last few seasons are no longer on the roster.

The Seahawks’ wide receiver room looks very different this season because long-time starters D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are no longer on the roster. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the new clear top wide receiver on the depth chart, and veteran Cooper Kupp joined him in the starting lineup. Fifth-round rookie Tory Horton was the third wide receiver.

This game may not have been a perfect representation of how the wide receivers will rotate the rest of the season because backup wide receivers Jake Bobo and Dareke Young were both declared out on Friday due to a concussion and hamstring injuries. The lack of depth led to a simple wide receiver rotation of Smith-Njigba and Kupp on early downs, while Horton joined them in three-receiver sets.

In the preseason, Smith-Njigba and Kupp shared snaps in the slot on a very small sample. In this game, Kupp played 47.8% of his snaps in the slot compared to Smith-Njigba’s 27.5%. Smith-Njigbah had one of the best games of the week by a wide receiver with nine catches for 124 yards, while everyone else combined for 26 yards. In the future, we should expect fewer yards from Smith-Njigba and more from Kupp. However, if we go a month or two without Kupp having a big game, he could be someone worth cutting from fantasy rosters.

A.J. Barner leads the Seahawks tight end rotation: Barner was the clear lead tight end in all situations.

The Seahawks made similar changes to their tight end room, keeping A.J. Barner while adding run-blocking veteran Eric Saubert and second-round rookie Elijah Arroyo. The preseason suggested Barner and Saubert would be the primary two tight ends, while Arroyo occasionally mixes in. However, we never saw the team in third-and-medium or -long snaps with the starters, making it unclear who would be playing in those critical situations.

In this game, Barner played even more than the preseason suggested. He played 77.8% of the single-tight-end sets, both on early downs and late downs and 100% of the snaps in two- and three-tight-end sets. The preseason made it seem like Saubert would be play more in single-tight-end sets on early downs, but Saubert only played in two- and three-tight-end sets. Arroyo was the backup in single-tight-end sets and split two-tight-end sets with Saubert.

Barner could be a deep sleeper given his snap rate, but he only had two targets, leading to a zero-yard catch. There is also a chance he loses playing time over the season to Arroyo. Given the lack of targets to tight ends, there are likely better waiver options.

Miscellaneous Notes

• The 49ers’ fifth-round rookie running back Jordan James was declared doubtful on Friday due to a finger injury.

---

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers

Jahmyr Gibbs sees an increased role: The gap between Gibbs and David Montgomery was notably wider than last season.

The Lions retained their elite running back pairing of Gibbs and Montgomery. However, there has been some reason to believe their roles could change. Gibbs is in his prime, Montgomery is one year further away from his prime, and the team has a new offensive coordinator. Last season, Gibbs played 52% of Detroit’s offensive snaps in games over the first 14 weeks when both players were healthy, compared to Montgomery’s 43%. Gibbs dominated two-minute drill snaps at 81%, while Montgomery led in short-yardage situations at 52% and goal-line plays at 58%.

Gibbs played 70.2% of the early-down snaps. There was only one game last season where Gibbs surpassed 70.2% snaps on early downs, which includes multiple games where Montgomery was injured. He also played the majority of snaps in short-yardage situations, which is something he only did four times last season. The situation where Gibbs was most consistently on the field last season was in two-minute drills. The Lions didn’t have those in this game, so there is a chance his snap rate will improve even more in future weeks.

Gibbs ran nine times for 19 yards and caught 10 passes for 31 yards, while Montgomery ran 11 times for 25 yards. Ideally, the Lions will be ahead in more games, which should lead to better production from both running backs. If not, then Montgomery is someone who might not be worth starting most weeks.

Jameson Williams plays more snaps: Williams has seen a significant increase in snaps every season, and that continues to begin this year.

The top two wide receivers on the Lions depth chart remained the same, with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. Third-round rookie Isaac TeSlaa played well enough throughout the preseason and training camp that the team traded away their previous third wide receiver, Tim Patrick, presumably in order to make room for TeSlaa to see more playing time.

Both St. Brown and Williams played 100% of the snaps in two- and three-receiver sets. The only reason neither player reached 100% of the snaps for the entire game is that the Lions took six snaps in 13 personnel, where Williams played four snaps and St. Brown played two. This only led to four receptions for 23 yards out of Williams, but it’s generally a strong sign for his future.

It was almost always Kalif Raymond joining St. Brown and Williams in three-receiver sets, while TeSlaa only took three snaps over the entire game. TeSlaa caught a garbage-time touchdown in those three snaps, which might lead to more playing time in the future. However, he would need to completely overtake Raymond to have any shot of having fantasy value this season.

The Packers’ ugly wide receiver rotation: The Packers’ rotation was a worst-case scenario for any fantasy manager wanting to start a Packers wide receiver this season.

The Packers’ wide receiver room went through major changes this offseason due to the additions of first-round pick Matthew Golden and third-round pick Savion Williams. This gave Green Bay six different wide receivers who all have a realistic shot at the starting lineup when everyone is healthy. However, not everyone was healthy for this game. Christian Watson is missing the first half of the season while on the PUP list. Jayden Reed (foot), Dontayvion Wicks (calf) and Williams (hamstring) were all questionable for this game.

Romeo Doubs was the only wide receiver to play over 50% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps, but his 70.8% snap rate was 5% less than his average from last season. He was the Packers X receiver for this game. Reed’s role was the same as it has been throughout his career, playing 89% of the snaps in three-receiver sets, but less than 10% of snaps in two-receiver sets. The Packers were winning, leading to a lot of two-tight-end sets, so Reed only played 18 offensive snaps. Golden was the primary Z receiver in three-receiver sets, Wicks in two-receiver sets. This was fairly similar to last season, but with Golden taking Watson’s role. Malik Heath also played 11 snaps, while Williams only played a few snaps.

Anyone who drafted Golden should keep him on their fantasy roster in case this rotation changes, but he can’t be in fantasy starting lineups. Everyone else should be left on the waiver wire. While Reed caught three passes for 45 yards and a touchdown, there will never be a case where you can trust Reed in your lineup, given his role.

Miscellaneous Notes

• Sam LaPorta played 91% of Detroit’s offensive snaps, giving him nine consecutive games with at least 90% of the snaps.
• Lions fourth-string running back Sione Vaki was declared out on Friday due to a hamstring injury. The Lions added Jacob Saylors to the 53-man roster on Saturday.
• Tucker Kraft also played 91% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps in this game, which was a slight uptick from his playing time from last season.
• Packers backup running back MarShawn Lloyd is starting the season on injured reserve, giving Green Bay the same three running backs as last season.
• Last season, Emanuel Wilson had a slight edge over Chris Brooks for the backup running back job. Wilson played more on early downs and Brooks more on third downs. In this game, Brooks was the primary backup in both early downs and third downs.

---

Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Rams

Nick Chubb leads the Texans’ backfield: Chubb ran the ball 13 times for 60 yards, where every other running back was held to single-digit rushing yards.

Joe Mixon is starting the season on the non-football injury list, and there is no clear indication of when he might be back to playing football. The Texans retained their top backup in Dameon Pierce and receiving back in Dare Ogunbowale from last season. They also added veteran Nick Chubb and fourth-round rookie Woody Marks. The preseason suggested that Chubb would be the early-down back while Ogunbowale was the receiving back, but we didn’t see much of Pierce this preseason, so we didn’t have a great sense of how the rotation might look.

The backfield largely looked like a traditional two-man backfield. Chubb took the early-down and short-yardage snaps, while Ogunbowale took the passing-down snaps. Pierce was the primary backup on early downs, while Marks played a few snaps on early downs and during the two-minute drill. Chubb averaged 4.6 yards per carry, while Pierce averaged 1.7 and Marks earned 1.0. This makes it unlikely either backup will start taking significant snaps from Chubb.

Chubb will be a borderline fantasy starter for as long as Mixon is out. He will be restricted by the Texans’ offensive line, not playing in two-minute drill snaps, and potentially by the Texans offense, in general. However, any running back who should see double-digit carries each week is a borderline fantasy starter.

While several people are high on Mark’s potential, there doesn’t seem to be a clear path to him having fantasy value. Even if Chubb suffers an injury, it appears Marks would have to share the early-down role with Pierce. This game didn’t help his case. I would rather roster someone who is a clear handcuff, even if it requires an injury for that handcuff to have value, than roster Marks in the hopes he can overtake both Chubb and Pierce.

The Texans rely on their veteran receivers: The Texans generally used their veteran receivers over their exciting rookies, to the dismay of fantasy managers.

The Texans made several changes to their wide receiver room. Tank Dell is likely missing the season, while Stefon Diggs left in free agency, and John Metchie III was traded away. Houston traded for Christian Kirk in addition to drafting Jayden Higgins in the second round and Jaylin Noel in the third round, while adding free agents Justin Watson and Braxton Berrios. The preseason suggested Nico Collins and Kirk would be the starters, while Xavier Hutchinson joined them in three-receiver sets. Higgins was supposed to be the top backup on the outside.

However, we didn’t see that lineup in this game because Kirk and Berrios were both declared out on Friday due to hamstring injuries. This made it seem like Noel would see a chance in the slot based on how the wide receivers were used in the preseason. However, Watson joined Collins and Hutchinson in three-receiver sets.

On the bright side, Higgins was the solo receiver in one-receiver sets and was consistently playing ahead of Hutchinson in two-receiver sets. Higgins is still worth rostering because there is a chance he surpasses Hutchinson on the depth chart in three-receiver sets at some point this season. However, it is harder to justify holding onto Noel. He would likely only play in three-receiver sets, at best, this season, but he appears behind both Kirk and Watson for that role.

Cade Stover plays more snaps than Dalton Schultz: Schultz remained the lead receiving tight end while playing just 54% of Houston’s offensive snaps.

The Texans retained their top two tight ends from last season in Dalton Schultz and Cade Stover. They interestingly choose to only keep two on the roster, with no practice squad elevations outside of fullback Jakob Johnson. Schultz played 82% of the early-down snaps in single-tight-end sets last season, but Stover played in 21 personnel with the starters in the preseason, suggesting he could be cutting into Schultz’s playing time.

Stover led the team’s tight ends in snaps due to playing the most snaps in 11 personnel on early downs. He played 58.7% compared to Schultz’s 41.3%. Schultz averaged 81.6% of the snaps in these situations last season, playing a minimum of 63.3%. While Schultz played the clear majority of the third-down snaps, Stover played a little more than usual in these situations as well.

This will be a situation to avoid all season, unless Stover can take over as the primary receiving tight end for Houston.

Blake Corum cuts into Kyren Williams’ snaps: Williams played 81.7% of the Rams’ offensive snaps, a mark that he surpassed in all but four games last season.

The Rams kept the same top two running backs as last season in Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. Williams played a ridiculous 87.6% snap rate last season, which included 83% of the snaps on early downs, 95% on third downs, 100% in the two-minute drill, 92% in short-yardage situations and 87% at the goal line. There has been constant talk of decreasing Williams’ workload, but there was no evidence of that actually happening last season.

Williams played 80% of the snaps on both early downs and late downs, while taking all of the short-yardage and goal-line situations. Corum already started cutting into Williams’ role a little bit late last season. While this is a decrease in snaps, he still was among the top-five running backs in percentage of offensive snaps over the first 14 games of the week. Williams remains a must-start running back, while Corum is a fine handcuff option to consider.

Monitor Puka Nacua’s health: Nacua left the game early to be checked for a concussion after he was bleeding out of his eye and never returned to his usual role on offense.

Los Angeles made multiple changes to its wide receiver room, moving on from both Cooper Kupp and Demarcus Robinson, replacing them with Davante Adams and moving Tutu Atwell and Jordan Whittington up to third and fourth on the depth chart.

On the first drive of the game, Nacua played all nine snaps, while Adams played eight, Atwell played six, and Whittington played two. Nacua was taken out during the second drive and didn’t play on the third. Whittington took over for Nacua’s role, rather than Atwell playing more. Nacua returned on the fourth drive but only played in 26 of 41 snaps over the rest of the game. Typically, Nacua would play at least 75% of Los Angeles’ offensive snaps. 

While the snap totals suggest Whittington is the third receiver, in a game where everyone is healthy, we would expect Atwell to play more snaps. Despite the missed time, Nacua caught 10 passes for 130 yards. Adams caught four passes for 51 yards, and everyone else on the team was held to one or two receptions.

Rams utilize a tight end rotation: The tight end room appears to be one to avoid this season.

The Rams invested heavily in tight end Colby Parkinson last season, and he slowly but surely lost playing time until Tyler Higbee returned late in the season and retained the starting job. Higbee will be 33 years old before the end of the season, and the Rams brought in second-round tight end Terrance Ferguson. Higbee was a clear starter most seasons and only mixed in the first few weeks last year. However, in the divisional round of the playoffs, Los Angeles trusted Higbee with 82% of their offensive snaps.

Higbee only played in 58% of the offensive snaps in this game. This was generally a simple rotation with Higbee playing in single-tight-end sets, while Parkinson and Davis Allen played in two-tight-end sets. Ferguson was active but didn’t take a snap on offense. Ferguson will probably get involved at some point this season, making this situation even more complicated. It’s best to look elsewhere for a tight end.

Miscellaneous Notes

• The Rams elevated running back Cody Schrader from the practice squad before this game. They made Jarquez Hunter a healthy inactive. He can be dropped in any redraft league where he is rostered.

---

Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills

DeAndre Hopkins makes his mark on the Ravens: Hopkins made a highlight-worthy touchdown catch to extend the Ravens’ lead late in the third quarter.

The Ravens overhauled their WR3 spot this offseason, moving on from Nelson Agholor and signing Hopkins in his pursuit of a Super Bowl ring. He joins Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman atop the depth chart, but Baltimore’s heavy usage of 12, 21 and 22 personnel means three-receiver sets are limited.

Flowers and Bateman were consistently on the field in two-receiver sets. Hopkins played primarily in 11 personnel, though he rotated with Tylan Wallace. Despite early speculation that Hopkins would cut into Bateman’s role, Bateman actually played a higher snap rate than he did in most games last season.

Hopkins’ usage resembled his limited playoff role with the Chiefs—low volume, but big-play potential. It’s also worth noting that Baltimore was without fullback Patrick Ricard (calf) and tight end Isaiah Likely (foot), which temporarily skewed their personnel groupings.

Hopkins may deliver more splash plays, but unless there’s an injury to Bateman or Flowers, his limited snap share makes him a risky fantasy option outside of deeper formats.

Mark Andrews rotates, even without Isaiah Likely: Andrews wasn’t consistently on the field in either 11 or 12 personnel, even with Isaiah Likely sidelined.

The Ravens kept their top three tight ends from last season but were without Isaiah Likely in Week 1 due to a foot injury. Zaire Mitchell-Paden was elevated to fill his spot. Mark Andrews played 62% of snaps in 2023, but that jumped to 87.3% in the one game Likely missed last year.

In Week 1, Andrews saw more usage in 11 personnel on third downs but split early-down snaps in that grouping with Charlie Kolar. With fullback Patrick Ricard out, the Ravens couldn’t run their usual 22 personnel sets. That led to more 12 personnel, but those looks often featured Kolar and Mitchell-Paden — not Andrews.

While Andrews played more than he typically did last season, it still wasn’t close to the snap share most fantasy starters command. That number is likely to fall once Likely returns. Fantasy managers starting Andrews will need him to score to return value, and that volatility isn’t going away.

Tyrell Shavers moves up to the fourth wide receiver spot: Shavers spent two seasons on Buffalo’s practice squad before earning a spot on the active roster—and he played a meaningful role in Week 1.

The Bills retooled their wide receiver group this offseason, letting Mack Hollins and Amari Cooper walk in free agency. They signed Joshua Palmer to start at Z receiver and brought in Elijah Moore as a top backup. Curtis Samuel, one of last year’s notable signings, was a healthy scratch to start the season.

Keon Coleman started at X, Palmer at Z and Khalil Shakir handled slot duties in 11 personnel. Shavers saw significant work in two-receiver sets, operating as the primary backup to both Coleman and Palmer. Moore primarily backed up Shakir in the slot. If Coleman or Palmer misses time, Shavers is the most likely next man up—and Samuel could eventually be the odd man out.

Dalton Kincaid’s snap rate doesn’t improve: Kincaid hovered around 50% of offensive snaps after receiving significant praise from Bills coaches this offseason.

Buffalo retained its top two tight ends from last season in Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. Kincaid played through significant injuries in 2023, which impacted his performance—and some fantasy managers hoped that also explained his limited playing time.

In the first nine weeks last season, Kincaid played 66% of snaps, including 46.3% of early-down snaps in one-tight end sets and 69.1% of third-down snaps in 11 personnel. He and Knox consistently shared the field in 12 personnel.

In Week 1, Kincaid’s usage shifted subtly. He led in early-down snaps out of 11 personnel—similar to early 2023—but Knox handled most third-down snaps in those sets, which rarely happened last year. Kincaid also played on 92.4% of 12 personnel snaps in 2023, but Buffalo leaned on Jackson Hawes more in that role this week.

Kincaid caught three passes and found the end zone, making him a solid Week 1 start. But if Buffalo continues to favor Hawes as a run-blocker when playing with a lead, Kincaid could see reduced volume in neutral or run-heavy scripts. With several rookie tight ends flashing in Week 1, now might be the time to sell high—before you’re forced to drop him later.

---

Table Notes

• Snaps include plays called back due to penalties, including offensive holding or defensive pass interference. The other three stats have these plays removed.
• Targets may differ from official NFL sources. The most likely discrepancy would be from a clear thrown-away pass, where the NFL may give the target to the nearest receiver, while this data will not.
• Carries are only on designed plays. Quarterback scrambles won’t count for the total number of carries in the game.