Immediate fantasy football takeaways from Sunday’s games

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Jacksonville Jaguars @ New Orleans Saints

Tank Bigsby starts for the Jaguars: Travis Etienne Jr. started in the first preseason game.

The Jaguars used a relatively basic running back rotation in their first game. Etienne took the first drive, Bigsby played the second and third, Bhayshul Tuten took the fourth drive to the eighth drive, and LeQuint Allen played the ninth and 10th drive, and just four plays were exceptions when drives ran long and the Jaguars wanted to give the current running back a break. These kinds of rotations are common in the preseason and give us a look at the current order of the depth chart, but they do little to help us understand how running backs might rotate during the season.

This week, the backfield better resembled how it might look in the regular season. On the first drive, Bigsby played on first and second downs, while Etienne played on third down. This makes sense, given the two running backs’ strengths. On the second drive, Etienne started, played two snaps, followed by Bigsby’s two, and another four for Etienne. This put the two running backs in basically a 50/50 split. They surprisingly were near-even in routes, targets and carries. We can expect this to shift at least a little bit in the regular season with Etienne catching more passes and Bigsby running more, but we shouldn’t expect these tendencies to be as strong as last season, given how Liam Coen used his running backs in Tampa Bay last season.

Currently, Etienne has a consensus ADP two rounds earlier than Bigsby, ranging from one round or less on ESPN and Yahoo! to four rounds on Sleeper. These should be closer together, and if anything, Bigsby should be the one drafted earlier.

For the second straight game, Tuten did not play a snap with the starters. He missed some time during training camp, so it’s understandable that he hasn’t worked his way to the starters yet. He may mix in more frequently as the season progresses, hurting both Bigsby and Etienne’s fantasy value. The only way any of these players will become a consistent fantasy starter this season is if one starts to clearly outperform the other two.

Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed make their preseason debuts: Both wide receivers missed the second half of the 2024 season.

The first and most obvious takeaway is that it’s good to see both players are healthy. We expect both players to rarely leave the field this season and both played 100% of New Orleans’ snaps with the starters, so this game was also in line with expectations.

Brandin Cooks was among the veterans not playing in this game, so we don’t have a great view of how the wide receivers will be rotated or used this season. The general expectation is that Cooks would join Olave and Shaheed in three-receiver sets, but that might not be the case, as none of the three receivers primarily play out of the slot.

Last week, Brandon Cooks and Mason Tipton were the primary receivers on the first drive, while Cedrick Wilson Jr. played in the slot in three receiver sets. In this game, Wilson also played in three-receiver sets and was the slot receiver more often than not. Wilson had seven snaps out of the slot in 11 personnel on the first three drives, compared to Olave’s three and Shaheed’s three. This suggests Wilson could have a larger role in the offense in 11 personnel, and Cooks could end up being more of a backup to Olave and Shaheed. It’s also possible we simply see a rotation of Olave, Shaheed and Cooks playing in the slot, while all of them take between 30-40% of the snaps in 11 personnel.

It’s worth noting that Wilson’s best season was in 2021 with the Dallas Cowboys, where he caught 45 passes for 602 yards and six touchdowns as the Cowboys‘ primary slot receiver, while CeeDee Lamb was playing more snaps lined up out wide. Kellen Moore was the Cowboys’ offensive coordinator that season.

The slot role in New Orleans is particularly noteworthy because of Moore’s history. Over the last three seasons, Moore’s primary slot receiver has averaged between 15.3 and 21.5 PPR points per game. His six primary outside receivers in three receiver sets have largely been unrosterable in fantasy, but the major exception was A.J. Brown last season. We will likely see those tendencies change this season due to Olave and Shaheed playing significantly on the outside and their talents, but we could see Wilson receiving a few more targets than originally anticipated, while Olave and Shaheed receive a little less.

Miscellaneous Notes

• Wide receiver and cornerback Travis Hunter is dealing with an upper-body injury and was announced out prior to the game. Dyami Brown was also ruled out for an undisclosed reason.
• Last week, Brian Thomas Jr. and Hunter split snaps in the slot with the starters. In this game, it was a split between Thomas and Austin Trammell, further suggesting the Jaguars won’t have a clear slot receiver and instead will move their wide receivers around more often than Liam Coen’s offense did with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last season.
• The only Jaguars skill player not to play last week was tight end Johnny Mundt, who has missed most of the last three weeks due to an upper-body injury. He and Hunter Long are listed at the same spot on the depth chart, but Mundt was the clear second tight end based on usage with the starters in this game.
• The Saints rested running back Alvin Kamara and wide receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed last week. This week, it was again Kamara, along with wide receiver Brandin Cooks and tight end Juwan Johnson.
• Kendre Miller played 14 snaps with the starters while Cam Akers played four, including three on third down. If Kamara were to suffer an injury, we could expect Miller to be the early down back to pick up off waivers, but Akers would also play snaps in those passing situations.
• Saints tight ends Foster Moreau and Taysom Hill remain on the physically unable to perform list. Hill is expected to miss significant time this season.
• Saints backup wide receiver Bub Means landed on injured reserve this week due to an ankle injury he suffered last week.
• Rookie running back Devin Neal is expected to miss a few weeks due to a hamstring injury.

Buffalo Bills @ Chicago Bears

First look at Colston Loveland with Cole Kmet: Kmet holds a slight edge over Loveland as the Bears’ lead tight end.

Kmet was among the Bears starters who sat out the first preseason game, with Loveland playing briefly at the start of the game. This week was the first true look at how they might be used together.

The two were used interchangeably, both playing five snaps on first downs and three snaps on second downs, while Kmet played one more snap than Loveland on third downs. They had five plays together in 12 personnel, while Kmet played five snaps to Loveland’s four in 11 personnel. While Kmet had the lead in snaps, Loveland was targeted twice compared to one target by Kmet.

Ideally, Loveland would be playing closer to 100% of the snaps with the starters. However, this isn’t all that different from how Brock Bowers was used during the preseason last year. The important part is that the two were used interchangeably, so it would be relatively easy for playing time to change. Had Kmet been playing more on early downs and Loveland more on later downs, that would suggest the team had specific plans for the two tight ends that would make it a little more difficult for Loveland to earn more playing time.

This means Loveland should have a chance to finish as a top-10 fantasy tight end if he plays well enough, but we shouldn’t expect him to be an instant sensation like Sam LaPorta, who immediately was playing all of the 11 and 12 personnel snaps in his first preseason game.

Olamide Zaccheaus was the Bears’ slot receiver: Second-round rookie Luther Burden III was restricted to playing with the second team.

The Bears also used their starting wide receivers for the first time. While Chicago has a new head coach in Ben Johnson, the wide receiver usage looked decently similar to last season. D.J. Moore was the X receiver and the least likely of the three to line up in the slot. Rome Odunze was the Z receiver, and he lined up in the slot here and there. Instead of Keenan Allen, Zaccheaus was typically in the slot in three-receiver sets. The one difference is that Odunze was consistently on the field in two-receiver sets, while Zaccheaus only played in three-receiver sets.

This should generally be good news for Moore, Odunze and Loveland, as Zaccheaus has a long career of being a solid role player but has never had a high target rate. This means more targets for those three. However, Zaccheaus is also playing in a position most similar to Amon-Ra St. Brown, which could mean Zaccheaus is in store for a career year. Zaccheaus was targeted twice, as was Moore, while Zaccheaus scored the game’s first touchdown.

It’s also worth noting that Burden didn’t play a single snap with the starters. Burden III had spent time earlier in the offseason injured, so he is a little further behind than most rookies. Still, if the team thought Burden might be in their early-season plans on offense, it could have made sense to get him two or three snaps with Caleb Williams. It’s still fine to spend a late-round pick on Burden but don’t expect immediate returns on that investment. It’s worth noting Adonai Mitchell and Ja’Lynn Polk were also rookie second-round picks a year ago and expected to be starters sooner rather than later, but that never ended up playing out as expected.

Ray Davis plays on third downs: Davis was an every-down back to begin this game.

The Bills rested all of their starters, including both early-down back James Cook and third-down back Ty Johnson. This left Davis as the clear top player on the depth chart, allowing him to play in all situations.

Last season, Johnson had a firm hold on the third-down role, playing 83% of third-and-3-plus plays. Davis had 15 plays in those situations compared to James Cook, suggesting the Bills might like Davis better in those situations. Davis had a slightly higher receiving grade last season, while Cook was the much better pass blocker.

While there are no expectations of Johnson losing the third-down role, it is good to note that Davis would likely be the third-down back if Johnson were to suffer an injury. The data from last season supports this idea, and this game certainly doesn’t hurt his case.

Miscellaneous Notes

• James Cook was one of the few Bills skill players not to play last week due to his holdout, but he was rewarded with a contract extension this past week. However, he was among the players the Bills rested this week.
• Buffalo didn’t play quarterback Josh Allen, running backs James Cook and Ty Johnson, wide receiver Keon Coleman, and tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox.
• Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir has been out with an ankle injury, but he has reportedly made good progress, increasing the odds he can play in Week 1.
• Bills backup wide receiver Curtis Samuel has been out due to a hamstring injury but recently returned to practice on a limited basis.
• Tyrell Shavers appeared to be the Bills’ likely sixth wide receiver based on his usage last week, but his start in this game makes it even clearer.
• The Bills have a three-man competition for the third tight end spot. Jackson Hawes, Zach Davidson and Keleki Latu rotated throughout the last three quarters last week and continued that rotation throughout this game.
• The Bears rested quarterback Caleb Williams, running back D’Andre Swift, wide receivers D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze and Olamide Zaccheaus, and tight end Cole Kmet last week, but all of them except Swift played tonight.
• D’Andre Swift didn’t play Sunday night for an undisclosed reason, even though there were reports earlier in the week that he would play. Roschon Johnson missed last week due to a foot injury and remained out for this game. Seventh-round rookie Kyle Monangai reportedly missed practice on Friday and also didn’t play Sunday night. Travis Homer suffered a calf injury during last week’s preseason game and didn’t play.
• This left undrafted rookie Deion Hankins as the Bears’ starting running back for this game, although he limped off the field in the second quarter. Do not be surprised if the Bears sign at least one running back this week.

Table Notes

• Snaps include plays called back due to penalties, including offensive holding or defensive pass interference. The other three stats have these plays removed.
• Targets may differ from official NFL sources. The most likely discrepancy would be from a clear thrown-away pass, where the NFL may give the target to the nearest receiver, while this data will not.
• Carries are only on designed plays. Quarterback scrambles won’t count for the total number of carries in the game.