Ideal top two picks for each draft slot in a 12-team league

1.01: Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Did you really think it was going to be anyone else? Chase has become the consensus top pick across fantasy football. For good reason. My guiding light on the first overall pick is that it’s the superstar with the narrowest range of outcomes. Through the first four years of Chase’s career, his range of outcomes has been about as wide as the eye of a needle. Here are his 17-game averages: 160 targets, 108 receptions, 1,488 yards, and 13 touchdowns. Ain’t much changed with the Bengals’ offense. If anything, the ceiling might be raised if Cincinnati’s defense doesn’t improve. cough Pay Trey Hendrickson cough

2.12: Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins

The vibes around the Dolphins don’t feel great, and Hill seems to be a large source of that. Despite the speedster’s apparent disgruntlement (is that a word?), he’s still one of the most targeted players in the league. Since 2022, only Davante Adams, CeeDee Lamb and Garrett Wilson have had more balls thrown their way. According to Next Gen Stats, Tyreek has piled up more than 40 percent of Miami’s air yards in his three seasons with the team. It’s been a while since Hill has been this discounted in fantasy drafts, but the volume alone means he’s in the running for WR1 status in 2025.

1.02: Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons

We officially know how to pronounce his name. We’ve been familiar with his game for two seasons. In 2024, Robinson garnered more than 40 percent of Atlanta’s touches and more than 13 percent of the team’s targets. That second figure ranked third among all running backs. Add in a 75 percent snap share with no real backfield competition, and it’s hard to argue against the third-year pro being the first rusher off fantasy boards.

2.11: Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders

I’m of two minds about the tight end position in fantasy. I tend to get one early, because I hate the idea of streaming and praying that your guy scores a touchdown. That said, I don’t love spending a second-round pick on one because of the opportunity cost of missing out on a high-level player at another position. But if you’re going to take the leap on a onesie position without much depth, Bowers is a solid bet. Last year, his target share (25.9 percent) was ninth-best among all players and he had the second-most air yards among tight ends, per NGS. There’s another tight end I like slightly more — stay tuned! — but Bowers falling out of the top three at his position would be a shock.

1.03: Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings

Last season, fantasy drafters downgraded Jefferson over fears that Sam Darnold wouldn’t be able to consistently get him the ball. Darnold went on to have a career season, while Jefferson was his usual, hyper-productive self. This year, we’re not prone to making the same mistake. Even if presumed Vikings starter J.J. McCarthy is an unknown quantity at the NFL level, Jefferson has proven to be quarterback-proof. Not to mention, head coach Kevin O’Connell has shown that he can put his signal-callers in a position to be successful. That starts with making sure Minnesota’s best playmaker gets the ball as often as possible.

2.10: Ladd McConkey, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

Keenan Allen’s return to Los Angeles might have some fantasy drafters worried about whether McConkey can build on his excellent rookie campaign. Will the veteran dislodge the second-year player from the slot, where he logged 65 percent of his snaps last year? Possibly. The good news is that McConkey was targeted on 30 percent of his routes when he lined up wide in 2024 and averaged more than 12 yards per catch in those situations. Allen does have a history with Justin Herbert, but it seems unlikely that the 33-year-old will return to an alpha role in an offense that’s different than the one he left. Then again, who’s to say there isn’t room for two 100-target receivers in the Bolts’ offense? Either way, McConkey seems poised to crack the low-end WR1 ranks this year.