Powerful Hurricane Erin has undergone astonishingly rapid changes in its intensity — a phenomenon that has become far more common in recent years as the planet warms. It quickly became a rare Category 5 for a time Saturday, before weakening and becoming a larger system on Sunday as it churns through the Atlantic Ocean north of the Caribbean.
Erin went from a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds at 11 a.m. Friday to a Category 5 with near 160 mph winds just over 24 hours later. It put Erin in the history books as one of the fastest-strengthening Atlantic hurricanes on record, and potentially the fastest intensification rate for any storm earlier than September 1.
Erin was still “a formidable Category 4 hurricane” late Saturday, the National Hurricane Center said. By 2 a.m ET Sunday, it had weakened further to a Category 3 hurricane while becoming a larger system, the Center said.
With maximum sustained winds near 125 mph and higher gusts, its hurricane-force winds now extend outward up to 25 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles.
It is forecast to return to Category 5 strength as it undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle, a process that will cause the storm’s windfield to grow.
Rapid intensification is when a hurricane gains at least 35 mph of wind speed in at least 24 hours. Extreme rapid intensification historically tends to happen in September and October.
Even more hurricanes are rapidly intensifying in the Atlantic as the oceans and atmosphere warm in response to fossil fuel pollution and the global warming it causes. This likely makes Erin another example of the increasing extremes of a warming world.
Furthermore, Hurricane Erin is now one of only 43 Category 5 hurricanes on record in the Atlantic – which makes it rare, though not as rare in the context of recent hurricane seasons – as peak strength is becoming easier for storms to achieve. It is the 11th Category 5 hurricane recorded in the Atlantic since 2016, an unusually high number.
It’s also unusual to see a Category 5 storm form so early in the season, particularly outside of the Gulf of Mexico. Mid-August is around the time of peak hurricane activity, but the strongest storms tend to occur later in the season.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is now the fourth straight season to feature a Category 5 storm, with two occurring last year, hurricanes Beryl and Milton.
Hurricane Erin is still expected to avoid a direct hit on any land mass, passing north of Puerto Rico, then curving north-northeast into the open Atlantic between the East Coast and Bermuda next week. As it does so, it is expected to double or even triple in size.
Erin is about 150 miles northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico and about 160 miles northwest of Anguilla as of Saturday evening. A flash flood warning has been issued for northern Puerto Rico until midnight Saturday and tropical storm watches remain in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands and parts of the Leeward Islands.
The outer bands of the storm will continue to produce areas of heavy rainfall through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, the Hurricane Center said. Considerable flash flooding, landslides and mudslides, are possible, it added.
The storm is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the US East Coast, and Atlantic Canada next week, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Erin sustained winds near 150 mph as of Saturday night, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Fluctuations in intensity are expected for the rest of the weekend, as Erin brings rain and strong wind gusts to the Caribbean islands south of it. Erin is expected to persist until Monday, when it will start to slowly weaken.
Erin’s powerful wind field is forecast to at least double or triple in size next week, resulting in rough beach conditions on the East Coast.
The storm is passing just north of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend while making a gradual turn toward the north. It’s unlikely it will make a direct landfall on any of the northeastern Caribbean islands, though tropical alerts are in place for some of these areas cautioning potential threats.
Erin is forecast to track north over the western Atlantic next week, away from the United States and Bermuda, but that could change if the storm turns more or less sharply than currently forecast. Even if the forecast remains consistent, Erin could cause issues for both places in the form of rough surf and dangerous rip currents.
n anticipation of the hurricane, the US Coast Guard captain for the port of San Juan has directed that the ports of St. Thomas and St. John in the US Virgin Islands, and six seaports in Puerto Rico be closed to all inbound vessel traffic unless specifically authorized.
Rough seas and rip currents around the islands will continue into early next week. Gusty wind and rain – which could be heavy at times – are also impacting the islands as Erin slides by.
Some spots could record 2 to 4 inches of rain this weekend with localized amounts up to 6 inches possible in the heaviest downpours. Intense rain could also cause flash flooding or mudslides.
There’s plenty of fuel in the region for Erin to tap into as sea surface temperatures are much warmer than normal. They aren’t quite as warm as the record levels reached in 2023 and 2024, but are still far warmer than they’d be in a world that wasn’t heating up.
Erin is the Atlantic’s first major hurricane of the season. Four other systems roamed the Atlantic basin before Erin – Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter – but none were stronger than a tropical storm.
The first hurricane of the season typically forms around August 11, so Erin was slightly behind schedule, particularly compared to early arrivals in recent seasons. There had already been three hurricanes – Beryl, Debby and Ernesto – by August 15 last year.
There will be more chances for tropical systems to develop this month. Longer term forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center highlight the same part of the Atlantic Erin developed in as a place to watch for new storms into at least early September.
August is when the tropics usually come alive: The busiest stretch of the season typically spans from mid-August to mid-October. Forecasters expect above-average tropical activity this year.
