Hurricane Erin is poised to bring deadly rip currents to the entire US East Coast, as well as destructive waves and storm surge to North Carolina’s Outer Banks. Meanwhile, Atlantic hurricane season is hitting its stride, threatening to spin up another named storm in Erin’s wake.
Erin, a sprawling Category 3 hurricane that exploded in strength over the weekend, is not forecast to make landfall but will touch off life-threatening surf conditions as it tracks up the East Coast. Bermuda will face similar conditions to the storm’s east.
The impact is already being felt on US coastlines. At least 75 rip-current rescues were conducted along North Carolina’s southern coast Monday, officials in New Hanover County reported. The county’s Wrightsville Beach has issued a no-swim advisory through Friday.
A tropical storm watch stretches from the middle of North Carolina’s coast north past Kitty Hawk, including the Pamlico Sound. The watch means tropical-storm-force winds (39 to 73 mph) are possible within 48 hours.
Dare and Hyde counties, which encompass most of the Outer Banks, have already issued local states of emergency with mandatory evacuations for Hatteras and Ocracoke islands.
To the south, tropical storm warnings remain in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas. A tropical storm watch is also in place for the central Bahamas.
Erin’s outer bands lashed those islands in recent days, causing flooding, power outages and airport closures. Puerto Rico also bore the brunt of Erin’s outer bands with flooding and widespread power outages.
Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center says a tropical wave trailing Erin in the Atlantic has a 60% chance of developing into a depression or storm within the next seven days. If it forms, it would take the sixth name on this hurricane season’s list: Fernand. A third disturbance just off the coast of Africa currently has a low chance of development, but that could change as it moves across the Atlantic Ocean.
Erin is expected to remain a powerful major hurricane – Category 3 or greater – through at least midweek. The hurricane’s impact will be felt not through direct landfall, but through water: large, pounding surf, dangerous currents and coastal flooding during high tides.
Extensive beach erosion is likely in the Outer Banks, with waves of 20 feet or more forecast this week, according to the National Weather Service. Waves of this size “will likely inundate and destroy protective dune structures,” which could lead to severe flooding inland, National Park Service officials at Cape Hatteras National Seashore warned Monday.
Multiple Outer Banks homes have collapsed into the ocean in recent years, including at least three around this time last year from Hurricane Ernesto’s waves. At least two homes in Rodanthe are “very, very vulnerable” to collapse this week, Cape Hatteras National Seashore Superintendent Dave Hallac told CNN affiliate WRAL.
As if that wasn’t enough, the tides around the Outer Banks will be at their highest levels of the month on Wednesday and Thursday. Adding Erin’s large waves to the mix could cause serious coastal flooding.
Bermuda also lies in Erin’s path of influence, with forecasters expecting the island to see very rough seas and possibly tropical storm–force winds later this week.
Erin’s impact began over the weekend, when it logged one of the fastest rapid intensification bursts on record in the Atlantic. In just over a day, the storm jumped from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane, peaking at 160 mph on Saturday as it feasted on exceptionally warm water and favorable atmospheric conditions.
The sheer size of the hurricane is also remarkable – and extends the reach of its impact. Erin’s hurricane-force winds extended up to 80 miles as of early Tuesday, while its tropical-storm-force winds stretched up to 230 miles, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The hurricane’s rapid intensification over the weekend was a stark reminder of how quickly storms can strengthen in a warming climate. It’s also unusual to see a Category 5 storm form so early in the season, particularly outside of the Gulf or Caribbean.
Despite Erin churning up cooler waters beneath the surface, there’s still plenty of warm water for storms to tap into as sea surface temperatures remain well above average. They aren’t quite as warm as the record levels reached in 2023 and 2024, but are still far warmer than they’d be in a world that wasn’t heating up.
August is when the tropics usually come alive: The busiest stretch of the season typically spans from mid-August to mid-October. Forecasters expect above-average tropical activity this year.
