Hurricane Erin is rapidly intensifying as it tracks above the northeastern Caribbean Saturday, churning up rough surf and sending rain and gusty winds to islands south of its path.
Erin was a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 130 mph as of Saturday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center. Erin is located about 150 miles northeast of Anguilla, the National Hurricane Center notes.
The storm is passing just north of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend while making a gradual turn toward the north. It’s unlikely it will make a direct landfall on any of the northeastern Caribbean islands, though tropical alerts are in place for some of these areas cautioning potential threats.
Erin is forecast to track north over the western Atlantic next week, away from the United States and Bermuda, but that could change if the storm turns more or less sharply than currently forecast. Even if the forecast remains consistent, Erin could cause issues for both places in the form of rough surf and dangerous rip currents.
Continued strengthening is expected throughout the day on Saturday, powered up by the warmer than normal Atlantic. In fact, by the middle of next week, Erin is forecast to at least double or triple in size, which will result in rough ocean conditions over the western Atlantic.
Rapid intensification occurs when the winds roaring around a storm’s center increase by at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less. Last year, nine storms rapidly intensified in the Atlantic basin, including Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton. This type of explosive strengthening is happening more frequently as planet-warming pollution tips the scales toward hotter oceans that fuel powerful storms.
In anticipation of the hurricane, the US Coast Guard captain for the port of San Juan has directed that the ports of St. Thomas and St. John in the US Virgin Islands, and six seaports in Puerto Rico be closed to all inbound vessel traffic unless specifically authorized.
Rough seas and rip currents around the islands will continue into early next week. Gusty wind and rain – which could be heavy at times – are also impacting the islands as Erin slides by.
Some spots could record 2 to 4 inches of rain this weekend with localized amounts up to 6 inches possible in the heaviest downpours. Intense rain could also cause flash flooding or mudslides.
There’s plenty of fuel in the region for Erin to tap into as sea surface temperatures are much warmer than normal. They aren’t quite as warm as the record levels reached in 2023 and 2024, but are still far warmer than they’d be in a world that wasn’t heating up.
Erin is the Atlantic’s first major hurricane of the season. Four other systems roamed the Atlantic basin before Erin – Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter – but none were stronger than a tropical storm.
The first hurricane of the season typically forms around August 11, so Erin was slightly behind schedule, particularly compared to early arrivals in recent seasons. There had already been three hurricanes – Beryl, Debby and Ernesto – by August 15 last year.
There will be more chances for tropical systems to develop this month. Longer term forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center highlight the same part of the Atlantic Erin developed in as a place to watch for new storms into at least early September.
August is when the tropics usually come alive: The busiest stretch of the season typically spans from mid-August to mid-October. Forecasters expect above-average tropical activity this year.
