How Yankees can come back from 2-0 ALDS deficit: After two Blue Jays blowouts, N.Y. on verge of elimination

The first two games of the ALDS could not have gone worse for the Yankees. They didn’t just lose both games; they got humiliated by the Blue Jays in Toronto. The Yankees were outscored 23-8 in the two games and outhomered 8-1. The 23 runs are the most ever for any team through the first two games of a postseason series. It has been a thorough dismantling.

“Obviously it feels like the world’s caving in around you. You lose two games like that in their building where it doesn’t go right,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said after Game 2. “But all of a sudden you go out there and win (Game 3), the needle can change. There’s been a lot of weird things that have happened in baseball this year. This would not be the weirdest, us rallying.”

Under the 2-2-1 best-of-five Division Series format, teams that won Games 1 and 2 at home have gone on to win 31 of 34 series, with 20 sweeps. The odds are certainly in Toronto’s favor, though the most recent of those three comebacks came from Aaron Judge’s 2017 Yankees. The Yankees dropped Games 1 and 2 in Cleveland, then rallied to win three straight. It can be done.

What needs to happen for the Yankees to mount a comeback and become the first team since those 2017 Yankees to erase a 2-0 deficit in a best-of-five series? Here are four things that must happen for the Yankees to avoid an ALDS defeat.

1. Get a great start from Rodón

The Yankees received a combined 5 ⅔ innings from starters Luis Gil and Max Fried in Games 1 and 2. The Blue Jays hit them hard (nine runs on 14 baserunners), and if they hit Carlos Rodón similarly hard in Game 3, then the ALDS is a wrap. Three teams have lost Games 1 and 2 on the road and rallied to win a 2-2-1 Division Series. The common theme is a great Game 3 start.

The Yankees certainly need Rodón to channel his inner Tanaka and deliver a strong start Tuesday night. The Blue Jays have bullied New York’s bullpen in the last two games, particularly their middle relievers. Rodón faced the Blue Jays twice during the regular season and was OK, allowing two earned runs in five innings both times. The Yankees will need better in Game 3.

“Facing the Blue Jays, they don’t have a lot of miss and they make a lot of contact,” Rodón said prior to Game 2. “I just know that throughout my career, I’ve always chased the strikeout, and that’s how I’ve pitched.”

2. The ball has to leave the park

The Yankees led baseball with 274 home runs during the regular season, 30 more than any other team, but it would be hard to tell this postseason. They’ve hit three homers in their five postseason games — Cody Bellinger, Ben Rice, and Anthony Volpe did the honors — and just one in their last three games. The Blue Jays have outhomered them 8-1 in their two ALDS games. 8-1!

The old trope that you can’t hit home runs against good pitching in the postseason is just wrong. There are fewer runs scored in the postseason, that much is true, but the home run rate actually goes up. Here are the league-wide numbers in the four years of the 12-team postseason era. Home runs taken on added importance in October.

Opposite field singles are pretty but home runs will get you to heaven. The Blue Jays are proving it in the ALDS. Judge is 8-for-18 (.444) this postseason, but with seven singles and one double. Giancarlo Stanton is 3 for 20 (.150) and homerless, ditto Trent Grisham, who hit 34 home runs during the regular season. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has three hits, all singles.

For whatever reason, the sport’s best home run-hitting team during the regular season has lost its identity in October. Either the Yankees start hitting the ball out of the ballpark these next three games — Judge and Stanton in particular, as they’re the aircraft carriers in the middle of the lineup — or they’re going home for the offseason. 

3. Take advantage of home field

Rogers Centre has been a house of horrors for the Yankees this season. Including the ALDS, the Yankees are 1-8 and have been outscored 75-41 in Toronto in 2025. The Blue Jays have been terrific at home this year. Home field is definitely an advantage for them, and the Yankees need Yankee Stadium to be an advantage for them in Games 3 and 4.

Here are the regular-season numbers:

The MLB average was a .538 winning percentage at home in 2025. It is common for teams to be better at home for many reasons (roster built for their ballpark, get to sleep in your own bed, etc.), and the Blue Jays were a juggernaut in Toronto this season. On the road, they were a .500 team. The Yankees had a less pronounced home/road split, especially by run differential.

The Yankees are 1-8 in Toronto this year but they are 4-2 against the Blue Jays in the Bronx, taking two of three in both of their regular-season series at Yankee Stadium. Of course, taking two of the next three games means losing the ALDS. They need a clean sweep. Three straight wins. The regular season says the Blue Jays are beatable on the road. Yankee Stadium must be an advantage for the home team.

“It’s a lot louder,” Rodón said when asked how Yankee Stadium changes in the postseason. “… It’s just the energy is a lot more heightened. It’s really fun. It’s a treat to be able to step on the mound in Yankee Stadium during the playoffs.”

4. Get a little lucky

With their backs up against the wall, the Yankees need every little break. Getting a favorable call on a borderline pitch in a big spot. A bloop off the end of the bat landing just fair (or foul). A good defender booting a play. It is better to be lucky than good, but to beat the Blue Jays three straight times, the Yankees will need to be lucky and good. There’s no shame in asking the baseball gods for a little help.